Champion Hurdle 2018

[Kevloaf]

I was there to see him in the flesh, and he did look on the big side to me. He was always prone to packing on the pounds over the summer, and that may have been what caught him out against Nichols Canyon that day. If we are to believe he wasn't fully fit, doing what he did to a 155 rated horse, then surely it's not out of the question he could run to 176+ against an improved BVD.

Thanks for that Montjeu!

Definitely wouldn't rule out the improvement, I have to say personally I would be skeptical that he would run to a career highest at his age HOWEVER, I think his actual rating might be inflated because of the clash. Not sure how this will sound, but I think Faugheen might end up with the hioghest ever rating, by beating BVD, even if it isn't actually his best ever rating....

reason being, if BVD goes unbeaten (beating the horses we know he's superior to) his rating will surely increase because its in the interest of racing to do that.... to make that clash that little bit more special, and if one of them wins it, we can crown a 'great'

Maybe I'm over thinking it... I tend nbot to care about ratings as soon as they get over what you run off in top handicaps as its not really as important, as they run off levels and so on....

I will probably read this back in the morning and think I don't make sense myself :very_drunk:

 

[Montjeu]

Thanks for that Montjeu!

Definitely wouldn't rule out the improvement, I have to say personally I would be skeptical that he would run to a career highest at his age HOWEVER, I think his actual rating might be inflated because of the clash. Not sure how this will sound, but I think Faugheen might end up with the hioghest ever rating, by beating BVD, even if it isn't actually his best ever rating....

reason being, if BVD goes unbeaten (beating the horses we know he's superior to) his rating will surely increase because its in the interest of racing to do that.... to make that clash that little bit more special, and if one of them wins it, we can crown a 'great'

Maybe I'm over thinking it... I tend nbot to care about ratings as soon as they get over what you run off in top handicaps as its not really as important, as they run off levels and so on....

I will probably read this back in the morning and think I don't make sense myself :very_drunk:

That's sort of my line of thinking Kev, except I'm of the opinion it won't be a false rating if it does happen.

As BVD is still only a 6 year old, we have to assume there is more improvement to come from him. A lot of this depends on what kind of figures BVD (and Faugheen) is able to rack up this season before going into the Champion Hurdle, could he go into the race on 170? Then it depends on whether Faugheen is still capable of running to a career best, if so then it's entirely possible he could outdo the 176 mark awarded to him for that Irish Champion Hurdle.

Then you look at the likes of Defi Du Seuil, a 155 rated 4 year old, and Melon who is rated 152 after only 4 career starts over hurdles, and you begin to wonder how much improvement is left in them. Could they be mid/high 160 horses? It's a pity Labaik isn't still in training, because if he was we could be talking about an astronomical rating for this year's winner.

A lot of ifs, coulds, and maybes, but I think we truly are in for a vintage year, both hurdling and chasing

 

[Kevloaf]

Whether it is false or not, Faugheen will join Hattons Grace and Sea Pigeon to win a CH at 10, and despite not being my time, I'm well aware both were exceptional. No matter what rating they give Faugheen, he'll be one of the greatest of all time... to be fair I won't be asking for the rating to be lowered if he does get it, so I don't really have a point haha

 

[oceans]

Not sure Ruby will again make it tactical like he did in 2015. They've learned the best way to ride him by going hard enough so the horses left at the end can't keep up with his finishing speed. The defeat happened for numerous reasons not only his fitness but also Mullins admitting he gave him a hard gallop at Curragh with only 3-4 days before the race which left NC for dead but they reversed it in the actual race. Both Mullins and Ruby learned alot from that mistake and since then Faugheen has posted his 2 most impressive wins and his rating at 176 is very conservative as it is.

If Faugheen arrives healthy he could raise it because horses usually are deemed the most race fit at Cheltenham, thats the target for all trainers so unlike the Irish CH when the handicappers said Arctic Fire and NC were 1-2 stones below their best, in the CH if BD finishes 5 lengths ahead of the rest like he did last year for his 170 mark, then there won't be any reasons to say BD underperformed so whatever Faugheen beats him by they will have enough proof to believe its the real measure of his abilities.

 

[Montjeu]

Not sure Ruby will again make it tactical like he did in 2015. They've learned the best way to ride him by going hard enough so the horses left at the end can't keep up with his finishing speed. The defeat happened for numerous reasons not only his fitness but also Mullins admitting he gave him a hard gallop at Curragh with only 3-4 days before the race which left NC for dead but they reversed it in the actual race. Both Mullins and Ruby learned alot from that mistake and since then Faugheen has posted his 2 most impressive wins and his rating at 176 is very conservative as it is.

If Faugheen arrives healthy he could raise it because horses usually are deemed the most race fit at Cheltenham, thats the target for all trainers so unlike the Irish CH when the handicappers said Arctic Fire and NC were 1-2 stones below their best, in the CH if BD finishes 5 lengths ahead of the rest like he did last year for his 170 mark, then there won't be any reasons to say BD underperformed so whatever Faugheen beats him by they will have enough proof to believe its the real measure of his abilities.

If I'm not mistaken BVD only earned 167 for his CH win, correct me if I'm wrong. Every chance he goes into the CH this season on 170 however, and if that does happen, its entirely possible the winner, be it himself or Faugheen, will have ran to 176+.

It's a pity Defi is also owned by JP, because beating him in the Fighting Fifth/Christmas Hurdle would give BVD a real chance to inflate his rating before going into the CH.

 

[oceans]

BVD is rated 170+ for the CH win: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/cheltenham/2017-03-14/0330/10/4/stan-james-champion-hurdle-challenge-trophy

I don't think BVD rating will increase just by beating Defi, he also needs to have all the right horses placed. I know only of a few high class horses that their ratings can be disputed to be lower, but BVD is not one of them. He easily beat MTOY by same margin as Annie Power and everything in behind checks out. It can be argued he should improve as a 7yo, so I'm not sure Faugheen will have such an easy task at 10 but I think his 176 is very conservative and if he gets there in good health should prove to the handicappers that he deserves a much higher figure if BVD runs to his best or improves, basically if everything in behind works out in terms of pounds lengths.

 

[Istabraq]

Not sure Defi is the right yardstick as I'm not convinced he's headed to the CH.
Triumph is all about stamina and CH is all about speed, any 4yo winning over 2m 1f on the New course is unlikely, in my opinion, to have the speed to win over a furling shorter on the less testing old course when a year older.
Interesting also his reappearance today comes over 2m 3f...

 

[Montjeu]

BVD is rated 170+ for the CH win: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/result/cheltenham/2017-03-14/0330/10/4/stan-james-champion-hurdle-challenge-trophy

I don't think BVD rating will increase just by beating Defi, he also needs to have all the right horses placed. I know only of a few high class horses that their ratings can be disputed to be lower, but BVD is not one of them. He easily beat MTOY by same margin as Annie Power and everything in behind checks out. It can be argued he should improve as a 7yo, so I'm not sure Faugheen will have such an easy task at 10 but I think his 176 is very conservative and if he gets there in good health should prove to the handicappers that he deserves a much higher figure if BVD runs to his best or improves, basically if everything in behind works out in terms of pounds lengths.

Sorry I assumed you were talking about Official Ratings rather than Timeform Ratings, seeing as the previous posts were based around OR's.

Fair points about Defi, he would have to improve significantly himself to justify a ratings hike for BVD. Unlikely they will meet however until the CH, if he goes there, and I agree with you Istabraq it is interesting he starts off today over 2m3f. The World Hurdle looks wide open for a superstar to come in and stamp their authority on this season, not convinced Harry or Nichols Canyon are that superstar. Might be being a bit harsh on last years winner, still very unexposed over the trip.

 

[oceans]

Yes the OR, RP and Timeform all agree on those figures give or take 1lb. OR has him at 169 for his champion win, RP at 171, TF at 170+.

 

[Montjeu]

Yes the OR, RP and Timeform all agree on those figures give or take 1lb. OR has him at 169 for his champion win, RP at 171, TF at 170+.

Just checked the handicapper's blog.

The BHA awarded BVD 167 for his CH win, the 169 was awarded to him for the Aintree Hurdle.

 

[oceans]

yes you're right, I stand corrected. Timeform did rate him 170+ for the champion but the OR and RP ratings I gave are from his Aintree win, not the champion!

 

[oceans]

Defi definitely has no stamina so 2 mile is his trip, but I don't think he has the class either.

 

[The Beast]

Hindsight a wonderful thing , always thought after last weekend ,champion hurdle a two horse race,Today has confirmed it.

 

[Kevloaf]

I see Defi has been pushed out to 20/1 in places now..... that is a much more realistic price for his chances in my opinion - I thought he was a horrible price before as I've said a few times.

I'd send him chasing myself.... I can't see him being a player in the stayers hurdle at his age either.

Is the CH definitely the plan?

 

[Scooby91]

I see Defi has been pushed out to 20/1 in places now..... that is a much more realistic price for his chances in my opinion - I thought he was a horrible price before as I've said a few times.

I'd send him chasing myself.... I can't see him being a player in the stayers hurdle at his age either.
Is the CH definitely the plan?

Philip Hobbs is at a loss to explain Defi Du Seuil's disappointing display in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday.

The JP McManus-owned four-year-old enjoyed an unbeaten juvenile campaign last season, winning each of his seven races, including the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

He was a hot favourite to make a winning reappearance, but trailed home a well-beaten fourth behind Lil Rockerfeller.

Hobbs told Racing UK: "He's perfectly all right. It was obviously very disappointing and nothing's come to light afterwards.

"We'll watch him very closely in the next week and then make a plan.*Barry Geraghty was happy enough at the fourth-last and as they turned into the straight, from there on he was struggling."

He added: ""He was rather fresh, but he's that sort of horse anyway. He's keen to get on with it.

"I couldn't have been happier with him at home.*I don't have any race in mind at this stage as we'll just have to see how he is and go from there."

 

[Kevloaf]

Hmm, can't decide whether to get him in the book at 20/1 .... if he is still going for the race its not a bad price, albeit I'll be laying for my stake back nearer the time as I don't fancy him anyway

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm not remotely interested in the 20/1. He'll have to improve on Saturdays performance to make the line up in March

 

[doctorwu]

Im not in the slightest bit surprised that Defi disappointed. I did say that its very hard coming from triumph hurdle victory and becoming a real CH prospect. Take a look at the last triumph winners; Ivanovic G, Peace&Co, Tiger Roll, Our Conor. I think only TR managed to win a race in the next season.

 

[Scooby91]

Im not in the slightest bit surprised that Defi disappointed. I did say that its very hard coming from triumph hurdle victory and becoming a real CH prospect. Take a look at the last triumph winners; Ivanovic G, Peace&Co, Tiger Roll, Our Conor. I think only TR managed to win a race in the next season.

I'd agree with the rest but very harsh on our Connor.

 

[doctorwu]

I'd agree with the rest but very harsh on our Connor.

Stripping aside the ill-fated CH fall why???
He won the triumph and returned to the fez for the CH(1 FULL SEASON) without a victory. Just stating a fact.
I was/am a big fan of OC. I backed him for the triumph and he blew them away. awesome performance.