Champion Hurdle 2018

[Scooby91]

Stripping aside the ill-fated CH fall why???
He won the triumph and returned to the fez for the CH(1 FULL SEASON) without a victory. Just stating a fact.
I was/am a big fan of OC. I backed him for the triumph and he blew them away. awesome performance.

It is a fact but he was in very deep company and put it up to the best of them

 

[Kevloaf]

23 career starts for My Tent Or Yours 8x WINS, 11x SECONDS and 3x THIRDS in his career, which means he has placed 22/23 times ....

0.5 pts each way 66/1 MTOY 1/4 odds with the sponsers

Obviously needs no introduction, I just don't feel like those odds are fair on what he has achieved.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

23 career starts for My Tent Or Yours 8x WINS, 11x SECONDS and 3x THIRDS in his career, which means he has placed 22/23 times ....

0.5 pts each way 66/1 MTOY 1/4 odds with the sponsers

Obviously needs no introduction, I just don't feel like those odds are fair on what he has achieved.

My thought process behind backing him last season, though it was of my opinion that after Faugheen got ruled out it was a wide open CH, as Buveur D'air at that point still had it all to prove. This season is a lot different, which is why I won't be backing him. Faugheen is indeed back, Buveur D'air has proved himself, which in turn means there should only be the 1 place up for grabs and I just don't see it for MTOY this time around. Wouldn't surprise me if Arctic Fire gets himself in the mix though, but again, something drastic would have to happen to the top 2 (which I definitely don't want to happen) for me to get involved in any others currently.

 

[Kevloaf]

My thought process behind backing him last season, though it was of my opinion that after Faugheen got ruled out it was a wide open CH, as Buveur D'air at that point still had it all to prove. This season is a lot different, which is why I won't be backing him. Faugheen is indeed back, Buveur D'air has proved himself, which in turn means there should only be the 1 place up for grabs and I just don't see it for MTOY this time around. Wouldn't surprise me if Arctic Fire gets himself in the mix though, but again, something drastic would have to happen to the top 2 (which I definitely don't want to happen) for me to get involved in any others currently.

Agree for the most part, however if my betting only revolved around Faugheen turning up I'd never have made a penny:highly_amused:

I only have Melon, BVD and Faugheen as better than him ... and I've backed Arctic Fire but concerned he seems to have disappeared?!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Agree for the most part, however if my betting only revolved around Faugheen turning up I'd never have made a penny:highly_amused:

I only have Melon, BVD and Faugheen as better than him ... and I've backed Arctic Fire but concerned he seems to have disappeared?!

Haha very true, and I have the exact same 3, albeit Melon is very small amounts in comparison to the other 2! I'm just not convinced Nicky will even send MTOY to the CH this time around. Wouldn't surprise me if he showed up in the Fighting Fifth this weekend!

 

[finch]

Was reading some of the posts about Faugheen there and I think it's safe to say that the Morgiana run was right up to his previous best form.

If Mullins can keep the horse up to that level throughout this season to win another 2 Grade 1's in Ireland (presumably Ryanair & Irish Champion) before running to a similar level of form come March (which he will need to be to beat Buveur D'air) then that is one hell of a training performance with a 9 soon to be 10 yo!

I suppose he is the best man for the job and I am sure if there was ever a horse with the ability to achieve such a feat then it is Faugheen.

I have my doubts though

 

[Montjeu]

Faugheen a general 7/4 shot now, sportsbook sticking their neck out at 15/8 but that won't last long. At this rate he'll be even money after an impressive win in the Ryanair Hurdle, and odds on if he follows that up in the Irish Champion. I'm on him at 6/1 through 9/4 so they can shorten away for all I care, its BVD I'm more interested in now. Depending on how short Faugheen goes, its either a case of laying my stake or putting a serious saver on BVD. Please god he goes out to around 6/1 at some stage.

 

[Kevloaf]

Faugheen a general 7/4 shot now, sportsbook sticking their neck out at 15/8 but that won't last long. At this rate he'll be even money after an impressive win in the Ryanair Hurdle, and odds on if he follows that up in the Irish Champion. I'm on him at 6/1 through 9/4 so they can shorten away for all I care, its BVD I'm more interested in now. Depending on how short Faugheen goes, its either a case of laying my stake or putting a serious saver on BVD. Please god he goes out to around 6/1 at some stage.

I doubt there will be anything above 7/2 when NRNB comes out for BVD as he'd be the obvious 'bet to nothing' ... I backed again at 5/1 although not each way this far out.

I only think he'll shorten though as the fighting Fifth should be easy pickings .... in fact just seen Irving is second fav so if he gets beat it'll be embarrassing.

Apple's jade is going Hattons Grace isn't she?!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I doubt there will be anything above 7/2 when NRNB comes out for BVD as he'd be the obvious 'bet to nothing' ... I backed again at 5/1 although not each way this far out.

I only think he'll shorten though as the fighting Fifth should be easy pickings .... in fact just seen Irving is second fav so if he gets beat it'll be embarrassing.

Apple's jade is going Hattons Grace isn't she?!

She may come here, she did last season, just defeated by Irving, but she's a tough cookie, and if she does turn up here she won't be easy to crack. I suspect she'll easily end up ahead of Irving this time around and would be my forecast play.

 

[Kevloaf]

She may come here, she did last season, just defeated by Irving, but she's a tough cookie, and if she does turn up here she won't be easy to crack. I suspect she'll easily end up ahead of Irving this time around and would be my forecast play.

What she managed last season considering how 5yos usually don't kick on... she has an amazing year.

Complete spanner in the works, didn't expect her to run. If BVD beats her FTO I'd be super impressed!

 

[ComplyOrDie]

What she managed last season considering how 5yos usually don't kick on... she has an amazing year.

Complete spanner in the works, didn't expect her to run. If BVD beats her FTO I'd be super impressed!

Yeah, we may even see a small drift on Faugheen if he wins well!

 

[Montjeu]

I doubt there will be anything above 7/2 when NRNB comes out for BVD as he'd be the obvious 'bet to nothing' ... I backed again at 5/1 although not each way this far out.

I only think he'll shorten though as the fighting Fifth should be easy pickings .... in fact just seen Irving is second fav so if he gets beat it'll be embarrassing.

Apple's jade is going Hattons Grace isn't she?!

Probably right, markets just don't operate like they used to, horses can shorten significantly without others drifting at the same rate. I'll live in hope however, Faugheen only likely to get shorter at any rate so I've nothing to lose by waiting.

As you mentioned a lot will depend on how good BVD looks in his prep races.

 

[doctorwu]

took a bit of 33s Apples Jade for this race. On the face of it doesn't seem that logical but....................

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

took a bit of 33s Apples Jade for this race. On the face of it doesn't seem that logical but....................

I was tempted to back her for the Stayers Doc. If she beats NC on Sunday I think it could tempt connections.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Buveur D'air very impressive there. As impressive as Faugheen IMO. Difference being Faugheen was coming back off a longer lay off and an injury.

 

[Scooby91]

Buveur D'air very impressive there. As impressive as Faugheen IMO. Difference being Faugheen was coming back off a longer lay off and an injury.

If I could get the 4/1 id go back in. 7/2 tempting. Just showed his well being but you couldn't possibly do that any easier.
Honestly think he beats faugheen. Huge on both buveur dair 4/1 And faugheens 8/1 6/1 with faugheen my bigger winner atm

 

[Scooby91]

I Can't even get 7/2 now. So should have made a quick decision.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

If I could get the 4/1 id go back in. 7/2 tempting. Just showed his well being but you couldn't possibly do that any easier.
Honestly think he beats faugheen. Huge on both buveur dair 4/1 And faugheens 8/1 6/1 with faugheen my bigger winner atm

Yeah, I think anyone sitting with them 2 coupled at good odds must be sitting pretty right now.

 

[Scooby91]

Yeah, I think anyone sitting with them 2 coupled at good odds must be sitting pretty right now.

My only other bet in the race is melon 25s 1/4 ew but much smaller stake.

 

[Kevloaf]

Hmm, can't decide whether to get him in the book at 20/1 .... if he is still going for the race its not a bad price, albeit I'll be laying for my stake back nearer the time as I don't fancy him anyway

I'm not remotely interested in the 20/1. He'll have to improve on Saturdays performance to make the line up in March

I agree, however I feel like I will back him now after a couple of weeks to think about it

I just checked my position in this race...

37 pts staked in total, (13 of those are NRNB on Faugheen 4/1) - if these horses won....

BVD 60 pts return - plus multiples (loads and loads and loads of them - almost certainly end up being my best result
The Machine - 107 pts return - (a few multiples)

Melon - 75 pts returned - (some also back for e/w)
Pingu - 65 pts returned - (some also back for e/w)
MTOY - 76 pts returned - (some also back for e/w)
Yorkhill - 47 pts returned - (some also back for e/w)
Arctic - 41 pts returned - (some also back for e/w)

CharliP - 21 pts returned lol:highly_amused: - (some also back for e/w)
Jenkins 25 pts returned lol:highly_amused: - (some also back for e/w)
Limini 26 pts returned lol - (some also back for e/w)

NR River Wylde 1 pt (expect Yorkhill to be too, as well as the 3 no hopers at the bottom)

Just checking the oddschecker market and going down priced horses:
Labaik 16/1 - out for season
Defi Du Seuil 20/1
Apple's Jade 25/1 - Gordon has said Mares 100% AND I think they Stayers would be more likely that the CH - won't run
Min - Chasing 100% - won't run
Wicklow Brave 40/1 - Not good enough - won't run
Yanworth 40/1 - won't run (I was Mr Yanworth last year, proved very wrong)
Cilaos Emery - 50/1 - better not run! wouldn't win anyway
Samcro - haha 40/1 - won't run obviously
Elgin - 50/1 - handicapper, won't run
Bapaume 50/1 won't run
Superb Story - 50/1 - injured so missed this race last year....can see bigger on exchanges - MIGHT run?
Divin Bere 50/1 - won't be good enough to run
VVM - Won't run
Campeador - won't run, put in his place by Machine
Mick Jazz - wont run - handicapper
Sutton Place - won't run - if over hurdles would be further
Petit Mouchoir - won't run

None of the other rags are worth mentioning.....

I am not a fan of DDS for this as I've said plenty of times, but I can see absolutely nothing bar Superb Story and Defi Du Seuil (Apple's Jade would obviously be a player too) that I would even CONSIDER backing that I haven't already......

I feel like I should get DDS in the book as he might shorten up again, he is 20/1 & 1/4 the odds with SJ which .... 1.5 pts e/w I think - unless anyone can make a case for any of the above being way off the mark?