Champion Hurdle 2018

[ComplyOrDie]

I've only just remembered to watch Buveur D'air against John Constable.

Geraghty better not be messing around like that on the day!

Shame there is nothing other than My Tent that have enhanced their claims this year because that was NOT a very good win IMO for BVD. I don't think he quickened particularly impressively either. 1/16 on against John Constable I genuinly think he should have won without needing to be shaken up. Few things against him (making his own running) but at 2/5 you wouldn't want to be going absolutely nuts would you?

Irrelevant as no-one will be getting on at that price, but a worry would be BArry being over confident? Wanting to put on a show against Faugheen?

I think it would be safe to say when it comes to Cheltenham the proverbial 'kitchen sink' will be given to BD to get over that line in front.

That said, I don't actually think the beating of Faugheen is a forgone conclusion, like some seem to be writing him off already.

 

[jonthehammer]

I think it would be safe to say when it comes to Cheltenham the proverbial 'kitchen sink' will be given to BD to get over that line in front.

That said, I don't actually think the beating of Faugheen is a forgone conclusion, like some seem to be writing him off already.

Faugheen is now a backable each way price at 6s NRNB. I still think he’s probably the best of the rest. Remember he is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham so he still has a little chance.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Faugheen is now a backable each way price at 6s NRNB. I still think he’s probably the best of the rest. Remember he is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham so he still has a little chance.

I couldn't back Faugheen with any confidence. His run was obviously an improvement on Christmas but he is still well below the level he was at before his injury.

He's as likely to blow out as he is to run his race at Cheltenham imo, which makes backing him ew at 6/1 too risky for me.

 

[jonthehammer]

I couldn't back Faugheen with any confidence. His run was obviously an improvement on Christmas but he is still well below the level he was at before his injury.

He's as likely to blow out as he is to run his race at Cheltenham imo, which makes backing him ew at 6/1 too risky for me.

I’m struggling to find another horse to beat him bar MTOY perhaps.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I’m struggling to find another horse to beat him bar MTOY perhaps.

I don't think anything will beat him if he runs his race Jon, it's just the 'if' that is the problem for me.

 

[Kevloaf]

From the Racing Post....

Melon's major drift on Betfair, from 3.6 to 6.2 within the space of 90 seconds before Saturday's Irish Champion Hurdle, is under investigation by the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board.

The betting patterns surrounding Yorkhill are also being examined by the IHRB after the gelding was easy to back before the Dublin Chase on the same afternoon. Both horses, trained by Willie Mullins, were soundly beaten.

Melon was trading at 3.6 on the betting exchange at 3.28pm on Saturday but was available at 6.2 just 90 seconds later. By the time the race went off at 3.30 he had shortened a little into 5.9.

But IHRB chief executive Denis Egan believes the betting patterns were suspicious enough to be looked into.

Melon market watch on Betfair

3.20pm – 3.95
3.22 – 4.0
3.24 – 3.85
3.26 – 3.75
3.28 – 3.6
3.28.30 – 4.9
3.29 – 5.5
3.29.30 – 6.2
3.30 – 6.2
3.30.28 (off time) – 5.9

Egan said: "There are two individual races where betting patterns caught our attention. There were a number of lay bets which require answers. We are investigating the matter and waiting on information from Betfair. Once we have all the information, we can decide whether to investigate the matter further."

He added: "There might be perfectly legitimate answers to explain the betting patterns but we felt that we needed to look into it. We hope to have answers very soon, certainly in the next day or two."

rest of the article... https://www.racingpost.com/news/new...ish-champion-hurdle-to-be-investigated/318467

 

[Robbante]

I’m talking myself into having a little saver on Wicklow Brave here. Buveur D’air seems the most vulnerable of the short priced favourites to me, and in looking at what might give him something to think about were Wicklow Brave to break off well then I can see parallels with Labaik. Didn’t have the best of starts at punchestown in April yet still beat MTOY, although it was a slightly muddled race

 

[qzy]

I’m talking myself into having a little saver on Wicklow Brave here. Buveur D’air seems the most vulnerable of the short priced favourites to me, and in looking at what might give him something to think about were Wicklow Brave to break off well then I can see parallels with Labaik. Didn’t have the best of starts at punchestown in April yet still beat MTOY, although it was a slightly muddled race

16/1 on Betfair Sportsbook w/o the fav is very fair I think

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m talking myself into having a little saver on Wicklow Brave here. Buveur D’air seems the most vulnerable of the short priced favourites to me, and in looking at what might give him something to think about were Wicklow Brave to break off well then I can see parallels with Labaik. Didn’t have the best of starts at punchestown in April yet still beat MTOY, although it was a slightly muddled race

16/1 on Betfair Sportsbook w/o the fav is very fair I think

Going off 70/1 in the Melbourne cup wouldn't be a traditional route, but I agree with qzy, I'd have 16/1 without BVD rather than 25/1 for the "win"

 

[Robbante]

Going off 70/1 in the Melbourne cup wouldn't be a traditional route, but I agree with qzy, I'd have 16/1 without BVD rather than 25/1 for the "win"

Talked myself back out of it. Same prep as last year and even if he had broken away at levels buveur d’air would have had a few lengths in hand. Don’t see where the necessary improvement would come from on reflection

 

[jono]

One thing regarding Faugheen...

I can't see it still being enough to beat Buveur but there is the very slim chance that Willie Mullins could get that spark back with Faugheen and he's proven to have worked some phenomenal training performances over time, Arctic Fire coming back and winning the County of top weight, getting Nichols Canyon back on track and winning the Stayers, Quevega 6 times, Vautour just quickly off the top of my head...

I think the key issue here though as that unlike almost all cases I'm sure where he's always left a bit back with his horses up until the Spring festivals, Faugheen as they have admitted has been at it on the go all Summer long. Add to that there's no way they would have left much left on his runs this season, certainly not his first and last run as both times they needed to know what he had. Having seemingly come back so well in the Morgiana I could see why they may have done so at his run over Christmas thinking they were in a better position with his wellbeing but that is irrelevant such was the display. There's no chance I don't think that last time out he wasn't as fully fit and primed as they could get him.

Maybe a switch in something for his training and routine may do it but being on the go all year means I doubt they have little if anything else they can do.

Would have to be well up there with his greatest achievements if he managed to pull it off?

 

[jonthehammer]

There is a whisper round Closutton that Mullins has been struggling with stable staff and some horses (mainly the not so top horses) haven’t been ridden out some days due to staff shortages. The reason being is WPM pays his staff less than than most of the other trainers in Ireland. Not so sure this has a Knock on effect to his top horses but could explain why some horses haven’t been fit this season. I expect them all to be as fit as fleas in 5 weeks time though.

I’ve not put a line through faugheen just yet. I think he travelled well at the weekend but just petered out in the final 1 to 2f.

Looking forward to this race a lot.

 

[Scooby91]

There is a whisper round Closutton that Mullins has been struggling with stable staff and some horses (mainly the not so top horses) haven’t been ridden out some days due to staff shortages. The reason being is WPM pays his staff less than than most of the other trainers in Ireland. Not so sure this has a Knock on effect to his top horses but could explain why some horses haven’t been fit this season. I expect them all to be as fit as fleas in 5 weeks time though.

I’ve not put a line through faugheen just yet. I think he travelled well at the weekend but just petered out in the final 1 to 2f.

Looking forward to this race a lot.

Write that on Twitter and tag Willie mullins, the supreme racing club and Joe chambers In it

That's absolute nonsense sir.

 

[jonthehammer]

Just what I’ve heard Scooby. Have you heard all is rosy then?

 

[Scooby91]

Just what I’ve heard Scooby. Have you heard all is rosy then?

Iv heard nothing but theyre a very credible outfit as a whole team.
mullins leaves no stone unturned. There attention to detail is given at every corner. And if your paying your money each horse is treated as an individual, they're might be preferences but the care time and effort given would not differ whether your douvan or chateau conti.

 

[jonthehammer]

Iv heard nothing but theyre a very credible outfit as a whole team mullins leaves no stone unturned. There attention to detail is given at every corner

Hmm. Like I say I have heard a few things about the place which I won’t discuss on here. The fella who told me I know very well and trust. Obviously you don’t know him so won’t trust him like I do. I am sure he won’t make things up though. Just putting out there what I’ve been told. If you think it’s rubbish then I’ve no issue with that.

 

[Scooby91]

Hmm. Like I say I have heard a few things about the place which I won’t discuss on here. The fella who told me I know very well and trust. Obviously you don’t know him so won’t trust him like I do. I am sure he won’t make things up though. Just putting out there what I’ve been told. If you think it’s rubbish then I’ve no issue with that.

Have to be careful john
I can imagine the breaking news now

Mr Sullivan removes all horses from W p mullins with immediate effect due to the investigation of Mr johnhammer on the fatjockey forum


In all seriousness there could be potential smaller owners that could believe what you just said and stop them in there tracks of owning and putting a racehorse in to training.

 

[jonthehammer]

I guess so. But I also think people should know these things.

Anyway like I said the issue is apparently resolved now and I am sure all the horses will be fit on the day.

 

[Kevloaf]

More chance of Willie himself getting the leg up than them not bothering to ride a horse out...:highly_amused:

 

[jonthehammer]

Haha Kev.

Like I say. Just what I’ve been told by someone I know well