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Champion Hurdle 2018

Identity Thief @ 680/1. Hopefully runs semi well this weekend and i'l lay at a shorter price.
 
Scooby91 said:
Anyone put any thought into the cashout option on buveur dair?
He wins tomorrow shortens up a little more. Cashout should get a little bigger.
However in the next couple of hours you've got yorkhill running who may switch back. And then the Irish champion hurdle. How much is he going to drift back out if/ when faugheen does the business. Or will he shorten up more in a different scenario?

I think the move could be to cash him out after the contenders. Then back him again after the Irish champion. But bog is there anyway.

But I'd be interested on opinions
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Was thinking a lot about the cash out option after this weekend tbh.

BD, Faugheen, Footpad, PM, Samcro plus others could have a big impact on what I'm offered now and what I will be offered after the weekend.

Just hoping things go well for all of them and on the back of that I can see my cash out being worth more than what I'm probably likely to win at the festival (as something always seems to go tits up).
 
looks like Buveur Dair will go off the hottest fav with what has just happen, Faugheen getting beat by a stayer doesn't look good.

I think My Tent Or Yours e/w @16s looks pretty good, but he is 11 so that would slightly put me off.
 
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Mullins (and Ricci) on Faugheen:

"I was disappointed with him. He's sort of half back on track, but he'll have to improve a lot to be back where he was.

"I was actually very happy where he was coming round the last bend, but by the time they lined up for the last, the writing was on the wall.

"I was hoping at that stage he might pull something else out, but it wasn't to be.

"I'm just hoping spring ground, spring air and spring sunshine might rejuvenate him, but there's just no spark there, I think."

Ricci added: "Faugheen is 10, after all. He ran well, just didn't win, whatever the reason I don't know. He was better than the last day - but no real answers."
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Faugheen has only been beaten by Stayers, and good ones at that, in soft ground, when he has completed a race, and still remains unbeaten on ground good or against any genuine Champion Hurdle contenders.

For me, despite him being unable to quicken away as he has done so often, tactically the team of Supasundae had that spot on. I feel Townend wasn't electric on him from the front and Ruby will also make a massive different come the festival.

This is far from a forgone conclusion that BD turns up and just wins IMO. Faugheen on good ground with Ruby on board will make a big difference.

I actually could do with BD winning it, for my bets, but I can't have Faugheen as a beaten horse based on today, seen a lot saying he should be retired, based on todays result, which is utter tosh, he finished 2nd in a Grade 1 for gods sake, he isn't a Cue Card, though he owes nothing to anyone and probably does deserve a retirement soon though.
 
Boil over on de cards imo
 
If ever a crowd tried to carry a horse to victory it was today at Leopardstown. It felt like everyone was screaming Faugheen on. Thought he travelled well throughout the race and coming to the last bend everyone was hoping/expecting him to kick on. It didn't happen, that thrust wasn't there and the writing was on the wall jumping the last.
I'm pretty deflated about that, I think that thrust, the extra gear is gone.
 
KingSprinterSacre said:
If ever a crowd tried to carry a horse to victory it was today at Leopardstown. It felt like everyone was screaming Faugheen on. Thought he travelled well throughout the race and coming to the last bend everyone was hoping/expecting him to kick on. It didn't happen, that thrust wasn't there and the writing was on the wall jumping the last.
I'm pretty deflated about that, I think that thrust, the extra gear is gone.
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Well summed up KSS. Unfortunately, injury and age looks to have caught up with him. It happens to us all.

He's still the best hurdler since Istabraq imo.
 
Can't quite believe Faugheen is 8/1 though, 2/1 for a place is basically just hoping he turns up IMO.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Can't quite believe Faugheen is 8/1 though, 2/1 for a place is basically just hoping he turns up IMO.
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faugheen 5/2 without BDA on 365

My general feeling is it isn’t a great renewal - but felt that way about last year too.
 
Old Vic said:
faugheen 5/2 without BDA on 365

My general feeling is it isn’t a great renewal - but felt that way about last year too.
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At NRNB I think that's an incredibly generous price.
 
Buv has been consistent all season.

Go collect.
 
Connections of Apple’s Jade looking at Supasundae beating Faugheen today (and also thrashing Melon who is closely matched with MTOY etc) must be thinking about this race rather than the stayers as a potential switch. Second in a champion hurdle picks up more prize money than winning the mares, and I don’t really get the arguments about winning any race at the Cheltenham Festival being the priority, prestige must come into it. She can have a go at what is the best chance she’s likely to get of going close in a champion hurdle given the weak nature of that division this year, and if it doesn’t come off likely win the Mares for the next few years still
 
O’leary Said the other day in the RP that all he cares about is grade 1s
 
Don’t understand that mindset. I can understand that money isn’t a motivation for them, but they have no credible candidate in the biggest hurdle race there is. With the allowance I think she would go close
 
I just couldn't see Apple's Jade as a CH horse. Between 2m4 - 3m with her allowance I think she could put it up to any horse but I just don't see her having the speed for the 2 mile trip. She's a stayer who battles and grinds out her wins rather than having plenty of pace or a turn of foot. IF they were to go another race it would only be for the stayers imo.

Because it was Faugheen, the result will be deemed as a disappointment, and of course against what the horse had achieved and the level he was at pre-injury it's seen as a "he's past it". Yes - He had to be winning that today to stand a chance against Buveur D'Air at the festival and I cannot see anything but Buveur reclaiming his crown but for me Faugheen probably produced and ran in the best piece of form for the CH this season yesterday* on the basis the winner will run in the Stayers so some perspective in terms of the whole race needs to be used and the odd shout that the horse should be retired afterwards is crazy really. Imagine if, I hate to even say it Buveur D'Air picked up a knock and connections retired Faugheen.

I don't think it was far below, if any Faugheen's first run this year in the Morgiana where he got plenty of praise. Melon was dismissed easily, as was Defi du Seuil. Mick Jazz who will run in the CH was 5 lengths back in 3rd. Of the betting...

MTOY - most solid horse in the list
Yorkhill - probably more unlikely not to run and even if he did, couldn't see him beating that from faugheen today
Melon - dismissed too easily now. The only thing going for him now for the last few runs was him having only X starts over hurdles. Wearing thin now. Not as good as thought. Get him over a fence next year
Apples Jade - mares
Wicklow Brave - place claims
Min - champion chase
Chitibello - beaten twice by the new one this year
Mick Jazz - runs but beaten 5 lengths here.
The New One - stayers
Cilaos Emery - injured
Let's Dance - mares
Defi du Seuil - well below this level
Yanworth - stayers / RSA
Call Me Lord - right handed tracks
Verdana Blue - no
and so on...

MTOY's, with his record in the race, his win in the International LTO could be argued as being a better bet than Faugheen in this race but i'd argue Faugheen has shown more this year. Plenty to like still about the run in the race so being available at 8/1 is mad, he almost certainly won't beat Buveur D'Air but he could still follow him home quite easily. Christmas was a mystery so you never know if that'll repeat itself but it wouldn't worry me too much now. Not the machine of old by any means, he would destroyed this field today but far from a bad run imo...

*He'll win the race and he's been treated with kid gloves but I'm discounting anything Buveur D'Air has run in this year as being the best form.
 
jono said:
I just couldn't see Apple's Jade as a CH horse. Between 2m4 - 3m with her allowance I think she could put it up to any horse but I just don't see her having the speed for the 2 mile trip. She's a stayer who battles and grinds out her wins rather than having plenty of pace or a turn of foot. IF they were to go another race it would only be for the stayers imo.

Because it was Faugheen, the result will be deemed as a disappointment, and of course against what the horse had achieved and the level he was at pre-injury it's seen as a "he's past it". Yes - He had to be winning that today to stand a chance against Buveur D'Air at the festival and I cannot see anything but Buveur reclaiming his crown but for me Faugheen probably produced and ran in the best piece of form for the CH this season yesterday* on the basis the winner will run in the Stayers so some perspective in terms of the whole race needs to be used and the odd shout that the horse should be retired afterwards is crazy really. Imagine if, I hate to even say it Buveur D'Air picked up a knock and connections retired Faugheen.

I don't think it was far below, if any Faugheen's first run this year in the Morgiana where he got plenty of praise. Melon was dismissed easily, as was Defi du Seuil. Mick Jazz who will run in the CH was 5 lengths back in 3rd. Of the betting...

MTOY - most solid horse in the list
Yorkhill - probably more unlikely not to run and even if he did, couldn't see him beating that from faugheen today
Melon - dismissed too easily now. The only thing going for him now for the last few runs was him having only X starts over hurdles. Wearing thin now. Not as good as thought. Get him over a fence next year
Apples Jade - mares
Wicklow Brave - place claims
Min - champion chase
Chitibello - beaten twice by the new one this year
Mick Jazz - runs but beaten 5 lengths here.
The New One - stayers
Cilaos Emery - injured
Let's Dance - mares
Defi du Seuil - well below this level
Yanworth - stayers / RSA
Call Me Lord - right handed tracks
Verdana Blue - no
and so on...

MTOY's, with his record in the race, his win in the International LTO could be argued as being a better bet than Faugheen in this race but i'd argue Faugheen has shown more this year. Plenty to like still about the run in the race so being available at 8/1 is mad, he almost certainly won't beat Buveur D'Air but he could still follow him home quite easily. Christmas was a mystery so you never know if that'll repeat itself but it wouldn't worry me too much now. Not the machine of old by any means, he would destroyed this field today but far from a bad run imo...

*He'll win the race and he's been treated with kid gloves but I'm discounting anything Buveur D'Air has run in this year as being the best form.
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The same would have been said about Supasundae not having the speed before today... and I think apples jade has far better form over 2m than Supasundae. She’s twice finished a few lengths ahead of footpad over 2m, she’s finished ahead of Petit Mouchoir... those horses aren’t slow and I think she’s improved this year and shown she still has plenty of pace when required.

I agree faugheen is a clear second favourite and think they’ll let him run in the hope the spring ground rejuvenates him. I expect he’ll finish in the places and be retired after but you couldn’t have him winning. Just think buveur d’air is beatable, incredible hurdler yes (one of the quickest I’ve seen over a hurdle) but just something nagging at me that he’s not an out and out superstar. If there is one horse in training that I think could beat him then I would say Apples Jade, especially with that allowance. A shame they won’t let her take her chance, even though if they did it wouldn’t be good for my book
 
I can't believe 4/1 NRNB is actually now not looking a good bet. I didn't imagine him running after getting beaten.... for me it was retired or turns up fav...

I'd still like to see him run and bounce back but financially I'd prefer a walkover for BVD now :devilish:
 
Melon again showing he hasn't got the heart for NH racing in my eyes, he looks better suited to the flat which incedentally i think he was bread for
 
I've only just remembered to watch Buveur D'air against John Constable.

Geraghty better not be messing around like that on the day!

Shame there is nothing other than My Tent that have enhanced their claims this year because that was NOT a very good win IMO for BVD. I don't think he quickened particularly impressively either. 1/16 on against John Constable I genuinly think he should have won without needing to be shaken up. Few things against him (making his own running) but at 2/5 you wouldn't want to be going absolutely nuts would you?

Irrelevant as no-one will be getting on at that price, but a worry would be BArry being over confident? Wanting to put on a show against Faugheen?
 
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