• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

ComplyOrDie said:
Given the history of PP offering better or worse odds for a Willie horse, under the assumption they have 'connections' to the yard, what do we make of Betfair offering 4/5 (best price) on Samcro with Elliott as one of their ambassadors? Also, Betfair owner PP have drifted him out this morning too, to 8/11.

Especially when a company like Bet365 are only offering 1/2 (worst industry price).
Click to expand...

Its the 1/2 standout worst price that got me contemplating the cash out option.

Can't work out why BF and PP have pushed Samcro out to prices, which before market suspension, were bigger than exchange prices.
 
Kevloaf said:
Simon Rowlands covers all the novice races here... doesn't fancy Samcro.... worth a read imo.

http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/sectional-spotlight/sectional-spotlight-novice-hurdlers

he starts his next one (Champion hurdle) like this....

"Judged by some of the responses to my remarks about Samcro in a preview of the Cheltenham novice hurdles elsewhere on this site, not everyone appreciates the concept of dealing in evidence when considering short-priced fancies. "

:highly_amused:
Click to expand...

I'm sorry but he's used powerpoint's stock graph formatting. I can't take anything he says seriously
 
Vinndication has somehow gone completely under my radar despite me reading about him. Only just watched all 4 of his runs together and what a smashing attitude for a horse. I am such a sucker for horses like this.

He reminds me of Barters Hill in his bumpers and hurdles early on. I know he doesn't go front the front but he just is off the bridle and pulls it out of the bag every time.

He put Western Ryder to the sword in his last run and RC has said its very liekly he goes here...

Now if Samcro had been in any of those races you can't imagine Vinndication would not be able to claw it back... so I Don't exactly think he's a good bet... but I'm sure he's been mentioned on here before and I imagine was a big price at one stage.

A possible angle would be that the race will be cutting up and he looks like he'd be able to mix it for a place. I Don't like backing when I think the win part is a forlorn hope but a really, really likable horse.

IS anyone on at a big price each way?
 
10/1 at Paddys in the betting without Samcro market NRNB if thats any help to ya Kev
 
Who are the confirmed/obvious runners in this?

Samcro 4/5
On The Blind Side 11/2
Duc Des Genievres 14/1 or Next Destination 8/1 (must be one or the other?)
Black Op 16/1
Vinndication 25/1
Western Ryder 33/1
Vision Des Flos (silly) 33/1
Real Steel 33/1

Getabird, Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy, Sharjah, Ainchea, Cracking Smart, Dortmund Park all unlikely runners? Quite a ferw others perhaps but big prices about them....

2nd and 3rd in my list do look rock solid to place IMO however... Black Op and Vinndication look to have decent palce chances too.

There is a without Samcro market which might be woth looking at? (BFSB and PP only so will quote BFSB as best price but not NRNB)

OTBD 15/8
Next Destination 2/1
DDG 7/1
Black Op 10/1
Vinndication 12/1
Vision Des Flos 12/1
Western Ryder 20/1
Real steal 25/1

PP are 5/1 for DDG, if that is NRNB which I assume it is, that is an interesting price.
OTBS has obvious claims, so would ND (but he's 6/4 NRNB) and I think going AB now.

Vinndication out of the 4? with that attitude? I think he'd probably place.... but are OTBS and either of the Mullins runners too good?
 
In the same boat as Kev - completely missed Vinndication. I remember seeing the result and being very lazy - saw the field and beating of Western Ryder as nothing to write home about (not been taken by WR this season)....bad move.

Really like him and really taking performance.

I have seen a few mentions when it comes to possibly getting Samcro beat - that he may well travel all over the field for the majority of the race but then a stayer will just do him up the hill, in a slightly similar vein to how Neon Wolf looked all over the winner last year but couldn't get his head infront. Though I don't agree that will be the case, I can see the case the angle there and it's probably one of the few scenerios that could play out....and this horse would be one i'd have down for that.

I only have Samcro for the race. Can 100% see the case for OTBS and he has the best form on offer to serve it up to Samcro certainly in the British side of the corner but the price doesn't interest me. DDG I like for place terms but would be more interested in his place prospects in the Supreme.

Here's what Bailey had to say on Friday:

At this stage I'm 60/40 in favour of going to The Festival," he told Gloucestershire Live.

"David (Bass) came and sat on Vinndication the other day and couldn't believe how much he had changed.

"He has come out of his race very well, we think he's improved again. This time last year he was standing in his stable.

He's very laid back about life which is good in the sense that you don't want a buzzy horse for The Festival.

It's almost two weeks away and we'll see how he is before letting him take his chance in the Ballymore.
Click to expand...

Very tempted to have my first bet outside of Samcro in this race.
 
jono said:
In the same boat as Kev - completely missed Vinndication. I remember seeing the result and being very lazy - saw the field and beating of Western Ryder as nothing to write home about (not been taken by WR this season)....bad move.

Really like him and really taking performance.

I have seen a few mentions when it comes to possibly getting Samcro beat - that he may well travel all over the field for the majority of the race but then a stayer will just do him up the hill, in a slightly similar vein to how Neon Wolf looked all over the winner last year but couldn't get his head infront. Though I don't agree that will be the case, I can see the case the angle there and it's probably one of the few scenerios that could play out....and this horse would be one i'd have down for that.

I only have Samcro for the race. Can 100% see the case for OTBS and he has the best form on offer to serve it up to Samcro certainly in the British side of the corner but the price doesn't interest me. DDG I like for place terms but would be more interested in his place prospects in the Supreme.

Here's what Bailey had to say on Friday:

Very tempted to have my first bet outside of Samcro in this race.
Click to expand...

My bets so far in this race are...

Samcro win 10s, 14s, 16s,
Samcro each way 12s
Getabird, Sharjah - both NR's I imagine
Real Steal NRNB 33s
Next Destination 10/1 e/w (possibly NR)

I do really like OTBS and do have an each way doubler with CoC at 91/1 that I feel covers me on him

VinndicationAt 10/1 NRNB (checked on PP) because it is only 60/40 I'll sacrifice the 2 pts with BFSB ... but I think he's got a really good chance. I'm hoping DDG goes elsewhere but I really do like this horse!
 
I know one of the owners is particularly bullish about his chances (aren’t they always...haha) and did have 1 point on with BFSB yesterday without Samcro. Agree though better to take NRNB with those trainer comments. Based on your enthusiasm and some doubts over OTBS speed figures (via polzeath ratings) will likely top up today in the without Samcro market, hoping for the old 1-2
 
I'll stick my neck out and say if next destination goes here. He marginally wins. Out battles samcro.

Not a clue where he goes atm. But imo he's very closely matched with samcro. And with itcf out. He's the novice I want to be on big. Wherever he goes. His form is working out very well and a chance for Joseph's horse to do the business today.
 
Last edited:
Scooby91 said:
I'll stick my neck out and say if next destination goes here. He marginally wins. Out battles samcro.

Not a clue where he goes atm. But imo he's very closely matched with samcro. And with itcf out. He's the novice I want to be on big. Wherever he goes. His form is working out very well and a chance for Joseph's horse to do the business today.
Click to expand...

If Next Destination comes here I would certainly have to back him and obviously it is still a possibility, but he has been laid at silly prices (and pushed out by PP) for this race these last few weeks so see it as unlikley.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
If Next Destination comes here I would certainly have to back him and obviously it is still a possibility, but he has been laid at silly prices (and pushed out by PP) for this race these last few weeks so see it as unlikley.
Click to expand...

Pp are nrnb. BF is the one to watch.
the price difference is often too big between the 2 so people avoid the nrnb and back antepost.

He's also been pushed back in by bf for the ballymore and out for the bartlett. However in all honesty he could go any of the 3.
 
Last edited:
Scooby91 said:
Pp are nrnb. BF is the one to watch.
the price difference is often too big between the 2 so people avoid the nrnb and back antepost.

He's also been pushed back in by bf for the ballymore and out for the bartlett. However in all honesty he could go any of the 3.
Click to expand...

Fair points and certainly a big factor to consider when thinking about a serious top up on Vinndication in the without Samcro market. Basically I wouldn't want to top up my Vinndication bet if ND comes here so will likely hold tight for a little while.
 
Next destination being aimed here according to Willie....

Hoping for a late switch personally
 
Kevloaf said:
Next destination being aimed here according to Willie....

Hoping for a late switch personally
Click to expand...

I think your watching the same Twitter page as me :)
He'll go very close here imo.
 
Scooby91 said:
I think your watching the same Twitter page as me :)
He'll go very close here imo.
Click to expand...

Certainly adds to the day!

Your theory will be tested
...

Late switches are obviously a possibility though!
 
Kevloaf said:
Certainly adds to the day!

Your theory will be tested
...

Late switches are obviously a possibility though!
Click to expand...

Iv got the top 3 well covered at good prices.

So I will see if I was right to cover or not. :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom