Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

[doctorwu]

Connections sticking to the same route as Wholestone last season, so no surprise really.

Wholestone was beat in this race last year, and finished a respectable 3rd in the AB, so won't be worrying too much if defeated.

COD,
With regards to Calett Mad, Its the chasing bit thats unusual.

 

[Scooby91]

Minds eye declared for tomorrow.
Samcro fans will be hoping he goes well.
I personally don't rate minds eye at all and can't see why samcro is anywhere near so short.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Minds eye declared for tomorrow.
Samcro fans will be hoping he goes well.
I personally don't rate minds eye at all and can't see why samcro is anywhere near so short.

Without trying to sound blunt, I couldn't care about the horses Samcro beat, because the manor in which he beat them suggests he could have named his distance anyway.

I do, however, get your point about his current price, it is ridiculous now!

 

[Robante]

Without trying to sound blunt, I couldn't care about the horses Samcro beat, because the manor in which he beat them suggests he could have named his distance anyway.

I do, however, get your point about his current price, it is ridiculous now!

I don't think minds eye is the worst yardstick if you consider he ran Brelade to a neck in a flat race on debut last year. Samcro could have beaten minds eye 20+ lengths if really putting it in.

To me he's the standout of all the novice hurdlers this season so far, that opinion obviously not based on form alone, you have to respect the way connections talk about him as something special. Wouldn't be the first horse that has then flattered to deceive but far more chance he's the real deal and will win a race at the festival come March than not

 

[Scooby91]

Without trying to sound blunt, I couldn't care about the horses Samcro beat, because the manor in which he beat them suggests he could have named his distance anyway.

I do, however, get your point about his current price, it is ridiculous now!

My only point is I could name many a novice who could choose there distance they beat minds eye and jack dillenger. But I will admit I could be made to look silly if he destroys a true graded field over Christmas. Until he does that though the fact remains hes beat nothing that woildnt be tailed off in a supreme or neptune.
If he goes for the lawyers hotel at navan and beats next destination, getabird, red jack, hollow graphic and early doors I will completely hold my hands up and say I was 100% wrong but to be the price he is now and "the next faugheen" is crazy in my eyes. The best horse he's beat no doubt was a decent mullins mare good thyme Tara (rated 135 over hurdles) in a listed bumper and that so happens to be his least impressive race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

My only point is I could name many a novice who could choose there distance they beat minds eye and jack dillenger. But I will admit I could be made to look silly if he destroys a true graded field over Christmas. Until he does that though the fact remains hes beat nothing that woildnt be tailed off in a supreme or neptune.
If he goes for the lawyers hotel at navan and beats next destination, getabird, red jack, hollow graphic and early doors I will completely hold my hands up and say I was 100% wrong but to be the price he is now and "the next faugheen" is crazy in my eyes. The best horse he's beat no doubt was a decent mullins mare good thyme Tara (rated 135 over hurdles) in a listed bumper and that so happens to be his least impressive race.

Another reason why I don't worry about the horses he beat, because he done what he had to do against a below par bunch, with the minimum of fuss, so the form line for this particular horse currently is irrelevant IMO. I love a good solid form line as much as the next person, where there are winners coming out of races etc... but even if the lot he beat manage to go and a win a few after it's not as if it will be a great standard and the argument would be weak anyway.

 

[Scooby91]

Another reason why I don't worry about the horses he beat, because he done what he had to do against a below par bunch, with the minimum of fuss, so the form line for this particular horse currently is irrelevant IMO. I love a good solid form line as much as the next person, where there are winners coming out of races etc... but even if the lot he beat manage to go and a win a few after it's not as if it will be a great standard and the argument would be weak anyway.

Its more price related than putting down samcro, i feel very strongly that his price is absolutely ridiculous. You'd have atleast thought he'd have won a couple of graded trials at that price

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Its more price related than putting down samcro, i feel very strongly that his price is absolutely ridiculous. You'd have atleast thought he'd have won a couple of graded trials at that price

And that I completely agree with!

 

[Scooby91]

2 of the better ones entered up. Madison to Monroe and real steel at the weekend

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

What price should he be?

I know I wouldn't want to lay the 5/1 so that says to me his price isn't ridiculous - in my eyes anyway

 

[ComplyOrDie]

What price should he be?

I know I wouldn't want to lay the 5/1 so that says to me his price isn't ridiculous - in my eyes anyway

Or look at it this way, he's 16/1 for the Supreme, 5/1 for the Neptune, not one race has been mentioned of as his target, so one price must be wrong!!

 

[jkite16]

Or look at it this way, he's 16/1 for the Supreme, 5/1 for the Neptune, not one race has been mentioned of as his target, so one price must be wrong!!

Gordon Elliot did mention in one of his stable tours that he see's him as a 2m5f horse, so I can only assume that's part to do with the difference in prices for these races.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Gordon Elliot did mention in one of his stable tours that he see's him as a 2m5f horse, so I can only assume that's part to do with the difference in prices for these races.

I think many have said he doesn't lack the speed for 2m either, I personally think he will go for the Ballymore, but he's too short now for me, given he could end up in the Supreme.

 

[Kevloaf]

You could argue on form that 5/1 is too short for this race for Samcro...

You could also argue that you HAVE to factor in the style and hype in terms of 5/1 being value ... IF he wins a solid yard stick so his collateral form gets done substance, he'll be shorter again ... so taking 5/1 now might be a good price on the morning, so isn't a bad price now.

I wouldn't personally back now at 5/1 inn this race, but I was already invested at 16s 14s and 12s so that's obvious in hindsight

 

[Scooby91]

What price should he be?

I know I wouldn't want to lay the 5/1 so that says to me his price isn't ridiculous - in my eyes anyway

Honest assessment on what he's done on the track.
14/1.

All the hype davys comments etc.
10/1.

Wins a grade 3 8/1
Wins a grade 1.
7/2

My honest opinion

 

[ComplyOrDie]

You could argue on form that 5/1 is too short for this race for Samcro...

You could also argue that you HAVE to factor in the style and hype in terms of 5/1 being value ... IF he wins a solid yard stick so his collateral form gets done substance, he'll be shorter again ... so taking 5/1 now might be a good price on the morning, so isn't a bad price now.

I wouldn't personally back now at 5/1 inn this race, but I was already invested at 16s 14s and 12s so that's obvious in hindsight

Very true Kev, and you could also argue, given Samcro has had a run and is 5/1, the other side of the fence you have a horse like Annamix who hasn't seen a track yet in the UK and is as short as 8/1 in places then Samcro wouldn't appear to be a bad price at all.

It is all a matter of opinion and how you, as an individual, view a price, personally I wouldn't go in now at 5/1 nor would I touch Annamix at 8/1 for the Supreme.

It may also be fair to say that many on this forum, including myself, have above and beyond them 2 prices quoted, so from that respect it may not look great value now.

 

[Scooby91]

What price should he be?

I know I wouldn't want to lay the 5/1 so that says to me his price isn't ridiculous - in my eyes anyway

Honest assessment on what he's done on the track. 12-
14/1.

All the hype davys comments etc.
10/1.

Wins a grade 3 8/1
Wins a grade 1.
7/2

My honest opinion

 

[doctorwu]

Or look at it this way, he's 16/1 for the Supreme, 5/1 for the Neptune, not one race has been mentioned of as his target, so one price must be wrong!!

Elliot has said he could move him up to 2.5m, he also said that he had the pace to be a top 2m horse. In my minds eye he's looks a perfect supreme horse. With the pace in the Supreme you don't get a breather like the Neptune.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Let's have a reality check here, the days of ante post prices being logical are long gone and the hype machine has taken over. When it comes to novice form I really have to disagree with any real 'substance', especially early on in the season. Taking form lines literally that Horse A only beat Horse B by 5 lengths whereas Horse C beat Horse B by 1 length is dangerous. There is not a trainer alive that will instruct their jockey on debut to go out and win by as far as possible. Most horses winning maidens or novice hurdles could most definitely win by further but there is nothing to gain by doing so. Add in that the other horses in those races have different objectives (handicap marks etc) and it becomes unreliable at best.

 

[Kevloaf]

Elliot has said he could move him up to 2.5m, he also said that he had the pace to be a top 2m horse. In my minds eye he's looks a perfect supreme horse. With the pace in the Supreme you don't get a breather like the Neptune.

Obviously we've not seen what he'd be up against, but completely agree he'd be rightful fav for a Supreme.
As a 'gambling yard' you'd think they'd be mopping up the bigger prices if they we're wrong though?
Could be waiting for the right time to strike!