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Ballymore (Previously Neptune) Novice Hurdle 2018

doctorwu said:
Samcro out at Navan on Sunday 2.4miler grade3.
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Disappointing race in terms of finding out how good he is. . Only 2 mares of note entered up and Gordon unlikely to run cracking smart.
Good thyme Tara obviously ran him close in a bumper so that would be interesting, but not what I was hoping for.

The 2 mile novice race on Sat looks a very good test for red jack if they all line up. Daly tiger was extremely imoressive beating what looked to be a weak field in his bumper
sharjah roaring bull also entered.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Disappointing race in terms of finding out how good he is. . Only 2 mares of note entered up and Gordon unlikely to run cracking smart.
Good thyme Tara obviously ran him close in a bumper so that would be interesting, but not what I was hoping for.

The 2 mile novice race on Sat looks a very good test for red jack if they all line up. Daly tiger was extremely imoressive beating what looked to be a weak field in his bumper
sharjah roaring bull also entered.
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Damn thats a good race saturday if they all run.
 
Ruby on next destination
"I thought Next Destination’s performance in Naas was very good.

He ran really well in the Cheltenham bumper last year and appreciated the step up in trip at Naas in what looked a really hot maiden hurdle.

It could have been a graded novice hurdle given the calibre of horse in it and he showed a really good turn of foot from the last to the line on what is a stiff track.

To me, he has Grade One novice stamped all over him"
 
Scooby91 said:
Ruby on next destination
"I thought Next Destination’s performance in Naas was very good.

He ran really well in the Cheltenham bumper last year and appreciated the step up in trip at Naas in what looked a really hot maiden hurdle.

It could have been a graded novice hurdle given the calibre of horse in it and he showed a really good turn of foot from the last to the line on what is a stiff track.

To me, he has Grade One novice stamped all over him"
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Loved his performance but to me he had Albert Bartlett written all over him. Horse with a big engine that travels well but not quick enough over 2 miles, shades of Penhill from last year. Also has stamina stamped all over his pedigree
 
Next Destination 10s with Paddys for the Bartlett, 10s any race with Hills. They also have Ballyward who should be to the fore for the Bartlett, but they’ll have more than one in there
 
I saw the performance of Next Destination as more of a AB performance too, and have such placed him in some multiples at 16/1.

I have also had bets on him in the 'Any Race' market too!
 
Yep, I also thought ND looked one for the potato race. Nice to hear Ruby making positive noises, although talk of him being a 3 miler would have been nice!
 
Whats everyone's views on Slate House and his target. Keen to get him on side and would think this looked the obvious target for him myself.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Whats everyone's views on Slate House and his target. Keen to get him on side and would think this looked the obvious target for him myself.
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I love him, think Tizzard loves him and he was purchased very much to win at the festival.

I'm only on any race though... wouldn't like to get too invested when it will probably not be known for a while.
 
For some reason I can't see the any race price comparisons on oddschecker. Can you?

I know 16/1 is available with Paddy. Just wondering why there are so much bigger than the rest at 33/1 for the Supreme. That looks plain wrong to me.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Whats everyone's views on Slate House and his target. Keen to get him on side and would think this looked the obvious target for him myself.
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I like him, wants 2.5 - 3 miles and a fence. Cant see it winning at the festival this year.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Whats everyone's views on Slate House and his target. Keen to get him on side and would think this looked the obvious target for him myself.
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Alongside Samcro he's the novice i've been most impressed with. Form is better than that of Samcro at this stage, and all that over an inadequate trip as well. The Ballymore is the only race I could see him winning this year, have a feeling he'll find Samcro too good assuming they are both in that race, but we can't be sure yet how good Samcro is
 
I'll be honest, I find Samcro's price quite puzzling. Purely based on hype. The only time he's faced a half decent horse in Good Thyne Tara, he won only 1/2 length or so. Clearly he could be anything, but he looks very short to me, and has very little worthwhile form in the book so far.

But I suppose Davy's hyperbole should be noted. He's a good judge.

Yes this is the race I like best for Slate House, but considering he's top priced 20's for it, 16/1 any race looks the safer play.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'll be honest, I find Samcro's price quite puzzling. Purely based on hype. The only time he's faced a half decent horse in Good Thyne Tara, he won only 1/2 length or so. Clearly he could be anything, but he looks very short to me, and has very little worthwhile form in the book so far.

But I suppose Davy's hyperbole should be noted. He's a good judge.

Yes this is the race I like best for Slate House, but considering he's top priced 20's for it, 16/1 any race looks the safer play.
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Would agree with every word of that.
 
Call me old fashioned and slap me with a wet Lettuce !, but i've backed Slate house in the Supreme at 25-1 .
the Ballymore at 20-1 and the Al b.b.bartlett at 25 -1. so i hope he turns up in one of them !!!!.
 
BigChaang said:
Call me old fashioned and slap me with a wet Lettuce !, but i've backed Slate house in the Supreme at 25-1 .
the Ballymore at 20-1 and the Al b.b.bartlett at 25 -1. so i hope he turns up in one of them !!!!.
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Have you ever heard of the any race market? :) backing the 3 works out at less than 8/1 without the reserve of a handicap if he somehow disappointed.
16s any race currently :)
 
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Yeah , heard of it Scooby , BUT , way tooo complicated for a simple Tradie like me .

Way i see it , supreme - 40% staked ,Ballymore - 50% staked and A.B 10% , so as long as
he runs and places in one of those , i'm in front ??.
 
BigChaang said:
Yeah , heard of it Scooby , BUT , way tooo complicated for a simple Tradie like me .

Way i see it , supreme - 40% staked ,Ballymore - 50% staked and A.B 10% , so as long as
he runs and places in one of those , i'm in front ??.
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Or not ?? , maybe ,.
 
BigChaang said:
Call me old fashioned and slap me with a wet Lettuce !, but i've backed Slate house in the Supreme at 25-1 .
the Ballymore at 20-1 and the Al b.b.bartlett at 25 -1. so i hope he turns up in one of them !!!!.
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I'd slap you with a lettuce BC :) Wish we had an emoji for that!

Moving forwards (and speaking from experience from my own punting a few years back) when I realised that its effectivly half the odds if you back for two races, i quickly started realising that the value starts slipping away quite quickly.....

It's a little bit like backing each way too, that can very quickly be poor value and scooby made some good points on that elsewhere.... I still do back each way and imagine will continue to for the time-being, but well worth reading over again :encouragement:

In your case, I'm sure you can just about make it work out the same as you've weighted the stake differently, but it'd be much easier to find the "to win any race market" on PP, BFSB, WH and Skybet... IMO :)
 
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