Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2020

[darlojim]

People thinking envoi allen is an absolute banker and whilst I have him at 10s for a fair bit hes no cert in my eyes, new challengers have emerged in the last month or so and his price has adjusted accordingly.

 

[charlie]

People thinking envoi allen is an absolute banker and whilst I have him at 10s for a fair bit hes no cert in my eyes, new challengers have emerged in the last month or so and his price has adjusted accordingly.

Tbf it’s always easier to play down the chances of a 6/4 shot when you have it at 10/1

 

[darlojim]

Tbf it’s always easier to play down the chances of a 6/4 shot when you have it at 10/1

it is but even if i didn't have a bet, i certainly wouldnt be piling into EA at 6/4 right now. Much better value shorties in the week than EA (BDD, PP for example)

 

[DenmanSacre]

You reckon Envoi Allen has this won before the last?

I think it will play out like the Lawlors.

Of his rivals, Sporting John won against a 2 miler LTO and won a 2 mile maiden against a 3 miler. I also don't like horses that have not been tested in a decent graded race.

I don't particularly rate The Big Getaway.

Big Breakaway is a typical Tizzard horse for next year.

Not much else in it.

If Asterion Forlonge was in here, I'd back him to beat EA.

I only have EA in multiples and so will have to be a day of race bet.

 

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Is the slight drift on Envoi not also just people looking at the weather and seeing a potential Supreme switch on the cards?

 

[Kevloaf]

I think it will play out like the Lawlors.

Of his rivals, Sporting John won against a 2 miler LTO and won a 2 mile maiden against a 3 miler. I also don't like horses that have not been tested in a decent graded race.

I don't particularly rate The Big Getaway.

Big Breakaway is a typical Tizzard horse for next year.

Not much else in it.

If Asterion Forlonge was in here, I'd back him to beat EA.

I only have EA in multiples and so will have to be a day of race bet.

Aye, it could well do.

I'd be surprised if Sporting John wasn't quite a bit better than Elixir D'ainay though. It'll give him something else to think about.


The best thing for EA (based on the form we've seen) would be a slow run race with a sprint finish. A strongly run race where stamina becomes key would be an unknown for him perhaps?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Is the slight drift on Envoi not also just people looking at the weather and seeing a potential Supreme switch on the cards?

My guess is rogue trading, people putting rumours out there and hoovering up value.
On a par with ticket touts for me are that lot...

 

[Alderbrook]

I’ve been through this race today and have it between Envoi Allen, Asterion Forlonge, Thyme Hill and Fiddlerontheroof. Not great for the race then that 3 of those 4 are more than likely to turn up in other races. I’d happily back any of those three against EA at the current prices, but without them I see EA as a very strong favourite. I can’t back any of The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway or Sporting John at their current odds as their wins have all been gained in low level races and the form looks weaker.

My only bet in the race so far is AF at decent odds before the run at the DRF, but it doesn’t look like I’ll get a run for my money. At this moment in time, I’d rather back Easywork or Elixir D’Ainay at bigger odds than the likely 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourites, but do see EA as the very probable winner.

 

[DenmanSacre]

it is but even if i didn't have a bet, i certainly wouldnt be piling into EA at 6/4 right now. Much better value shorties in the week than EA (BDD, PP for example)

I wouldn't say BDD is particularly better value.

Her best form is over 3m. At Cheltenham she fell last year and the year before beat Midnight Tour less than a length. The best horse she has beat over 2 and a half is a 5yo Stormy Ireland.

 

[DenmanSacre]

Aye, it could well do.

I'd be surprised if Sporting John wasn't quite a bit better than Elixir D'ainay though. It'll give him something else to think about.


The best thing for EA (based on the form we've seen) would be a slow run race with a sprint finish. A strongly run race where stamina becomes key would be an unknown for him perhaps?

SJ might be better than Elixir D'Ainay but I do think Elixir is a good horse. Form upto the Lawlors was good and then at Leopardstown he didn't jump fluently and didn't like taking a lead from Cobblers Way. His 2nd to EA and beating of Longhouse Poet is better than SJs form IMO.

The Lawlors was a decent set pace and so I don't think a strongly run race would be too much of a deterrence.

Having Davy on board will help as well.

 

[Eggs]

...Sporting John likely to be heading here according to Hobbs (interview Sporting Life website).

 

[delsie777]

How many actually turn up in The Ballymore?

How many actually turn up in The Ballymore?

Having spent a bit of time looking at this market, it occurred to me how few are actually confirmed in this race. Leaving aside EA, TBG, TBB and SJ, who else is likely to line up? There must be some eachway value there somewhere, surely? Or do we lump on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th Fav eachway 1,2,3 in the hope that only a few turn up?

 

[Kevloaf]

Having spent a bit of time looking at this market, it occurred to me how few are actually confirmed in this race. Leaving aside EA, TBG, TBB and SJ, who else is likely to line up? There must be some eachway value there somewhere, surely? Or do we lump on the 2nd, 3rd or 4th Fav eachway 1,2,3 in the hope that only a few turn up?

I see all the 5 at the top of the betting as being quite strong, so the bigger priced runners aren't massively appealing each way, but Pipesmoker and Allart are two I have backed that I think are alright... although I'll probably cash them out if the big guns stand their ground!

 

[Run4Home]

From todays Tizzard tour

It’s the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle for The Big Breakaway
Joe Tizzard absolutely delighted with his preparation ahead of a clash with Envoi Allen at @CheltenhamRaces

 

[charlie]

From todays Tizzard tour

It’s the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle for The Big Breakaway
Joe Tizzard absolutely delighted with his preparation ahead of a clash with Envoi Allen at @CheltenhamRaces

Buzzing. It's hard to be bullish about him v EV but I'm giving it a go!

 

[Vautour]

Watched the bookmaker preview and had rather forgotten how little work the yard said they had done with Envoi between the Royal Bond and his last run, which makes it an incredibly impressive performance in my view. In a race where speed is often required at the end I can’t see Envoi being beat and there is a bit of decency bias in respect of cases being made for the others.

I think he’ll get taken on by the bookies and he could prove to be the best bet of the week.

He is a big part of my ante post book but I don’t feel any of the above is pocket talking - on all evidence and what the yard have said, and indeed what every other trainer/jockey in Ireland is saying he is a dead cert.

 

[charlie]

Watched the bookmaker preview and had rather forgotten how little work the yard said they had done with Envoi between the Royal Bond and his last run, which makes it an incredibly impressive performance in my view. In a race where speed is often required at the end I can’t see Envoi being beat and there is a bit of decency bias in respect of cases being made for the others.

I think he’ll get taken on by the bookies and he could prove to be the best bet of the week.

He is a big part of my ante post book but I don’t feel any of the above is pocket talking - on all evidence and what the yard have said, and indeed what every other trainer/jockey in Ireland is saying he is a dead cert.

I will be cheering EA on as he's a big winner for me, but I am conscious this race looks far more competitive now than it did a month ago. The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway and Sporting John could all be anything.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

I will be cheering EA on as he's a big winner for me, but I am conscious this race looks far more competitive now than it did a month ago. The Big Breakaway, The Big Getaway and Sporting John could all be anything.

Yes, there are four real quality horses in here, one that achieved more earlier in his career, the other three more recently.
We won’t know who is progressing fastest, and is best for the race, until it happens.
Hopefully everyone on the forum has one or more of these four at decent prices.

 

[Vautour]

David Mullins was not very keen on the Big Getaway and Tizzard has just said Fiddler in the roof is their best chance in the novices which, for me, downgrades the Big Breakaway. I think Sporting John is benefitting from recency bias.

On paper it is a very strong race but got me the Big Breakaway and Getaway will come into their own chasing and Sporting John hasn’t shown enough for me to be a real threat.

I take real note of Donoghue being so bullish about Envoi as well as Codd saying he is the best horse he has sat on. Both are massive comments and when coupled with his imperious and holeless form and likelihood he will improve on what he has done, I think he’s bulletproof.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

David Mullins was not very keen on the Big Getaway and Tizzard has just said Fiddler in the roof is their best chance in the novices which, for me, downgrades the Big Breakaway. I think Sporting John is benefitting from recency bias.

On paper it is a very strong race but got me the Big Breakaway and Getaway will come into their own chasing and Sporting John hasn’t shown enough for me to be a real threat.
.

I take real note of Donoghue being so bullish about Envoi as well as Codd saying he is the best horse he has sat on. Both are massive comments and when coupled with his imperious and holeless form and likelihood he will improve on what he has done, I think he’s bulletproof.

You have great back up, on which to base your opinion, which is an excellent place to be, to answer any challenge to it.

I think everyone thinks EA will improve for chasing too.

This is going to be a cracking race, and I would expect that more than one horse will have a chance going to the last hurdle, and then let the hill and the horses produce the finale to this story.

I haven’t seen Fred Done paying out early on EA, or any other Festival runner, in history, yet.