Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

[Kevloaf]

Decided to get Acey Milan onside prior to Sunday’s run out - looks the most likely target given the entries at the distance.

I really like Acey Milan CK! I have backed him at 33/1 (free bet only) - the thing putting me off having a proper bet though is...(in a nutshell) I feel like there isn't that much point ante post, as he'd be a backable price on the day)...

2018 - 8/11f - Samcro (1st) - The second coming of Jesus Christ
2017 - 2/1f - Neon Wolf (2nd) - I believe this horse was an absolute super star
2016 - 11/10f - Yanwoth (2nd) - The Orange machine was hugely popular going in to the race before Yorkhill beat him
2015 - 7/2f - Nichols Canyon (3rd) - Not a superstar at the time (or ever I guess), but Mullins/Walsh
2014 - 6/4f - Faugheen (1st) - Superstar
2013 - 6/4f - Pont Alexandre (3rd) - Was touted as a superstar, beaten by The New One and GN winner Rule The World in 2nd
2012 - 2/1f - Simonsig (1st) - Not quite a superstar but untapped potential perhaps
2011 - 2/1f - So Young (3rd) - Mullins/Walsh, in all honestly can't remember if he was hyped or not
2010 - 7/2f - Rite Of Passage (3rd)
2009 - 5/2f - Mikael D'Haguenet (1st) Mullins/Walsh


Point being, that personally looking at this race, the key is to find the value with what will be fav!
The favourite record recently has been 1331313221 - never out of the top 3!

You have to go back to 2008 when Aigle D'Or went off 4/1f and came last.


Will Acey Milan go off fav for this race, I'd say it's virtually impossible, even if he went unbeaten in England all season. The fact is Mullins/Walsh are likely to be fav, and if it isn't them, Gordon won't be far behind....

Acey Milan may go on and prove to be the best of the British, and still be a backable price on the day. As I said, I do really like Acey Milan, but looking at this race ante-post, I want to try and back the likely fav each way - which at the moment I'd see as Blackbow or Tornado Flyer

 

[Cashew King]

Completely agree about value - for me personally I think he’ll be shorter than 33s on the day & likely be shorter by teatime Sunday if he wins as I expect at Ffos Las. I agree he’s unlikely to be fav come Cheltenham but I’d still rather have the 33s than be on at say 12s. As you say It’s all about value & that’s something that’ll be different for each of us.

 

[Kevloaf]

Completely agree about value - for me personally I think he’ll be shorter than 33s on the day & likely be shorter by teatime Sunday if he wins as I expect at Ffos Las. I agree he’s unlikely to be fav come Cheltenham but I’d still rather have the 33s than be on at say 12s. As you say It’s all about value & that’s something that’ll be different for each of us.

Yeah, it was more a general pondering around this particular race.

If you're beating SP then there can't be any arguement - that is definitely value :encouragement:

 

[jono]

I really like Acey Milan CK! I have backed him at 33/1 (free bet only) - the thing putting me off having a proper bet though is...(in a nutshell) I feel like there isn't that much point ante post, as he'd be a backable price on the day)...

2018 - 8/11f - Samcro (1st) - The second coming of Jesus Christ
2017 - 2/1f - Neon Wolf (2nd) - I believe this horse was an absolute super star
2016 - 11/10f - Yanwoth (2nd) - The Orange machine was hugely popular going in to the race before Yorkhill beat him
2015 - 7/2f - Nichols Canyon (3rd) - Not a superstar at the time (or ever I guess), but Mullins/Walsh
2014 - 6/4f - Faugheen (1st) - Superstar
2013 - 6/4f - Pont Alexandre (3rd) - Was touted as a superstar, beaten by The New One and GN winner Rule The World in 2nd
2012 - 2/1f - Simonsig (1st) - Not quite a superstar but untapped potential perhaps
2011 - 2/1f - So Young (3rd) - Mullins/Walsh, in all honestly can't remember if he was hyped or not
2010 - 7/2f - Rite Of Passage (3rd)
2009 - 5/2f - Mikael D'Haguenet (1st) Mullins/Walsh


Point being, that personally looking at this race, the key is to find the value with what will be fav!
The favourite record recently has been 1331313221 - never out of the top 3!

You have to go back to 2008 when Aigle D'Or went off 4/1f and came last.


Will Acey Milan go off fav for this race, I'd say it's virtually impossible, even if he went unbeaten in England all season. The fact is Mullins/Walsh are likely to be fav, and if it isn't them, Gordon won't be far behind....

Acey Milan may go on and prove to be the best of the British, and still be a backable price on the day. As I said, I do really like Acey Milan, but looking at this race ante-post, I want to try and back the likely fav each way - which at the moment I'd see as Blackbow or Tornado Flyer

Good post! The fav has very often been the Mullins horse as well but just getting the Mullins horse right for this race is more often than not a sure fire way of getting value.

Outside of the years the Mullins #1 horse was fav:

2018 - Next Destination - 4/1 2ndFAV - 3rd
2017 - Bacardys - 4/1 2ndFAV - PU but badly hampered so given no chance
2016 - Yorkhill - 3/1 2ndFAV - 1st
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere -15/2 - PU just blatantly couldn't go left handed. Had 0% chance of winning this

All for the last 6 years his #1 horse has been either Fav or 2nd Fav and gone off at odds of 4/1, 4/1, 3/1, 7/2, 6/4, 6/4

A lazy and very obvious really but it's a race he excels at for his number one horse ridden by Ruby.
Now the issue you have is trying to find that horse this far out when the value exists.

Tornado Flyer and Blackbow are both 25/1 still with Bet365 and would appear to absolute no brainers to back now at 25/1 if anyone hasn't as of yet being the 2 that would appear to be earmarked this far out for the race with the likely benefit of being able to cashout at any point in the season if targets start changing

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

.

Tornado Flyer and Blackbow are both 25/1 still with Bet365 and would appear to absolute no brainers to back now at 25/1 if anyone hasn't as of yet being the 2 that would appear to be earmarked this far out for the race with the likely benefit of being able to cashout at any point in the season if targets start changing

Wise words Jono. Mullins, Elliott and Henderson are the three stables I always tend to focus on for this race, and the two you've highlighted are standout prices when you consider B365's each way terms and cash out options.

 

[Scooby91]

Good post! The fav has very often been the Mullins horse as well but just getting the Mullins horse right for this race is more often than not a sure fire way of getting value.

Outside of the years the Mullins #1 horse was fav:

2018 - Next Destination - 4/1 2ndFAV - 3rd
2017 - Bacardys - 4/1 2ndFAV - PU but badly hampered so given no chance
2016 - Yorkhill - 3/1 2ndFAV - 1st
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere -15/2 - PU just blatantly couldn't go left handed. Had 0% chance of winning this

All for the last 6 years his #1 horse has been either Fav or 2nd Fav and gone off at odds of 4/1, 4/1, 3/1, 7/2, 6/4, 6/4

A lazy and very obvious really but it's a race he excels at for his number one horse ridden by Ruby.
Now the issue you have is trying to find that horse this far out when the value exists.

Tornado Flyer and Blackbow are both 25/1 still with Bet365 and would appear to absolute no brainers to back now at 25/1 if anyone hasn't as of yet being the 2 that would appear to be earmarked this far out for the race with the likely benefit of being able to cashout at any point in the season if targets start changing

That's the way iv played it. But i wouldn't rule out carefully selected though PP are ducking him in the same way they were ND last year.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Good post! The fav has very often been the Mullins horse as well but just getting the Mullins horse right for this race is more often than not a sure fire way of getting value.

Outside of the years the Mullins #1 horse was fav:

2018 - Next Destination - 4/1 2ndFAV - 3rd
2017 - Bacardys - 4/1 2ndFAV - PU but badly hampered so given no chance
2016 - Yorkhill - 3/1 2ndFAV - 1st
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere -15/2 - PU just blatantly couldn't go left handed. Had 0% chance of winning this

All for the last 6 years his #1 horse has been either Fav or 2nd Fav and gone off at odds of 4/1, 4/1, 3/1, 7/2, 6/4, 6/4

A lazy and very obvious really but it's a race he excels at for his number one horse ridden by Ruby.
Now the issue you have is trying to find that horse this far out when the value exists.

Tornado Flyer and Blackbow are both 25/1 still with Bet365 and would appear to absolute no brainers to back now at 25/1 if anyone hasn't as of yet being the 2 that would appear to be earmarked this far out for the race with the likely benefit of being able to cashout at any point in the season if targets start changing

I think the bumper crop will prove a strong bunch, but you would want that cash out option. Could be a few lurking in the stable somewhere.

 

[Kevloaf]

That's the way iv played it. But i wouldn't rule out carefully selected though PP are ducking him in the same way they were ND last year.

Hadn't noticed that - might have to take Carefully Selected with 365 for that reason alone.

Already on Tornado Flyer and Blackbow (and might double stake on those actually).

 

[SeanRock]

Hadn't noticed that - might have to take Carefully Selected with 365 for that reason alone.

Already on Tornado Flyer and Blackbow (and might double stake on those actually).

Cant wait for Carefully Selected's start over timber lads. I'm still confident of the 3m route so hoping he's Limerick bound at Christmas hopefully after an impressive 2m 4f maiden win to strip race fit.

Also notice Pym is entered up for the Ballymore Trial 'Hyde Hurdle' at HQ next Friday. Probably too soon after his last (deflating) run to take is chance but same race Nicky won with On the Blind Side last term. As expected a step up in trip must be on the agenda.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I've had a saver on Carefully Selected for this but I've just got a feeling that Blackbow is their number one novice hurdler.

Didnt really fulfil his potential last year but 25/1 for this race with Bet365 looks huge. Just got to teach him to settle better and the world is his oyster!

 

[jonthehammer]

Well Acey Milan beaten as well on a day of a few shocks. I think this ground may have a lot to answer for today. I actually backed the winner (Truckin Away) of that race as he was on the P2P dossier I sent out. Said he would be a nice time but possibly on flatter tracks. Not sure if he is a festival horse but won well anyway

 

[Scooby91]

Well Acey Milan beaten as well on a day of a few shocks. I think this ground may have a lot to answer for today. I actually backed the winner (Truckin Away) of that race as he was on the P2P dossier I sent out. Said he would be a nice time but possibly on flatter tracks. Not sure if he is a festival horse but won well anyway

Well done.
like you said , its always desperate at ffos las. that's why I was happy with kilbricken storm as he particularly hates it.

 

[jonthehammer]

Well done.
like you said , its always desperate at ffos las. that's why I was happy with kilbricken storm as he particularly hates it.

Couple more were entered for tomorrow as well so will have a look at the decs later when todays racing is over.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

A nice form boost for Commander of Fleet after Column of Fire wins the bumper at Navan in good style.

 

[Folski]

A nice form boost for Commander of Fleet after Column of Fire wins the bumper at Navan in good style.

Could Felix D's flop push him more toward the Supreme?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Could Felix D's flop push him more toward the Supreme?

Possibly Folski. I have him covered for both races but just think he could be better over this trip.

Column of fire's performance does add some substance to the Punchestown bumper form. That was seriously impressive.

 

[Scooby91]

Possibly Folski. I have him covered for both races but just think he could be better over this trip.

Column of fire's performance does add some substance to the Punchestown bumper form. That was seriously impressive.

Hes beaten trees there today.
2nd beaten 18L by Yukon lil and 25L by young ted and he was beaten 20L himself by tornado flyer.

but could column of fire improve past commander of fleet, he only learned his job once commander of fleet had gone. And as Gordon's already said COF was very forward and been given to him straight and ready to run. Awaiting quotes to see if he goes for a hurdle next.


********
Column Of Fire brings up double

@NavanRacecourse

for Gordon Elliott: "He'll have another run in a bumper. I'd say that's all he'll do this year but he's a horse for the future.



Looks an interesting one for next year if commander of fleet dosent do too badly.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Hes beaten trees today
2md beat 20L by young ted and he was beaten 20L himself by tornado flyer.

but could column of fire improve past commander of fleet, he only learned his job once commander of fleet had gone. And as Gordon's already said COF was very forward and been given to him straight and ready to run. Awaiting quotes to see if he goes for a hurdle next.

He has beaten 'trees' but I was impressed by how he stretched away. I must admit that I haven't seen the quotes of Commander of Fleet being very forward last season tbh.

 

[Folski]

Pym entered in the 2m5f Ballymore trial on Friday at Cheltenham. McGrath keeps the ride and is now rated 138 according to the RP.

 

[Scooby91]

He has beaten 'trees' but I was impressed by how he stretched away. I must admit that I haven't seen the quotes of Commander of Fleet being very forward last season tbh.

He was given to gordon straight for the race by the previous trainer who had him for his ptp. which is why he gave credit to them for the win saying he came to him straight and did little with him himself only asked michael/ Eddie if he could run.