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Ballymore Novice Hurdle 2019

FaugheenTheMachine said:
Gordy says Commander of Fleet is a 2 miler in his stable tour today
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This news has thrown me a bit as I was basically considering it job done with my tenner on him at 20s for this.

Strangely I don't have the same feeling about him for the Supreme. Am I right in this, or is it buyer's regret? (Always looking to counteract my internal assumptions)
 
As mentioned by a few, the 'to win any race' market was made for the Ballymore Novice Hurdle IMO
 
robith said:
This news has thrown me a bit as I was basically considering it job done with my tenner on him at 20s for this.

Strangely I don't have the same feeling about him for the Supreme. Am I right in this, or is it buyer's regret? (Always looking to counteract my internal assumptions)
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I wouldn't worry too much about this. In the betfair stable tour he said he will start over 2 miles but he will be better over further. Also in the racing post he said Felix Desjy could be a supreme horse.

They will no doubt be split up.
 
robith said:
This news has thrown me a bit as I was basically considering it job done with my tenner on him at 20s for this.

Strangely I don't have the same feeling about him for the Supreme. Am I right in this, or is it buyer's regret? (Always looking to counteract my internal assumptions)
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Definitely buyers regret.

He may well still end up in the Ballymore but it's been very lazy assumptions that he'd follow Samcro.

Its another glaring example of taking a shorter price any race being a benefit.

I only have singles on CoF in the any race market but had a couple of multiples the night before the stable tour backing him in the Ballymore!!!

That just has to go down as a rubbish bet ... I'd effectively made my mind up before the horse was even back in training! Now the trainer says he is a two miler and I don't want to believe that because I made an ill-informed bet? It sounds silly to counter the trainer comments... I know I wouldn't if I hadn't had the bet.

Absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind either, when I see him hurdling I may think differently ... but based on everything so far, I think I have to day I made a mistake
 
The trainer has said different things dependant on which stable tour you read. I'm still inclined to trust my eye and believe he'll end up in the Ballymore come March
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The trainer has said different things dependant on which stable tour you read. I'm still inclined to trust my eye and believe he'll end up in the Ballymore come March
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Would the fact he looked like he'd get further help in a surpreme though too?

Too much is made of trip when it's between intermediate one's.

Supasundae doesn't have a problem ... there are hundreds of examples.

I feel I waste a lot of time thinking about trips although I love it when I think I find a specialist at a trip ... or a horse unbeaten at a certain trip
 
One horse I think deserving of a shout out for this is Gallahers Cross at 33s. His point form is solid and I thought he was the only one capable of going with Didtheyleaveuoutto down the stretch at Ascot last season when he stayed on nicely. Owners have said on twitter that they hope he'll make up into a ballymore horse
 
Robbante said:
One horse I think deserving of a shout out for this is Gallahers Cross at 33s. His point form is solid and I thought he was the only one capable of going with Didtheyleaveuoutto down the stretch at Ascot last season when he stayed on nicely. Owners have said on twitter that they hope he'll make up into a ballymore horse
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I had him down as an Albert Bartlett horse due to his breeding and also his age. He’s certainly worth following though.
 
Kevloaf said:
Definitely buyers regret.

He may well still end up in the Ballymore but it's been very lazy assumptions that he'd follow Samcro.

Its another glaring example of taking a shorter price any race being a benefit.

I only have singles on CoF in the any race market but had a couple of multiples the night before the stable tour backing him in the Ballymore!!!

That just has to go down as a rubbish bet ... I'd effectively made my mind up before the horse was even back in training! Now the trainer says he is a two miler and I don't want to believe that because I made an ill-informed bet? It sounds silly to counter the trainer comments... I know I wouldn't if I hadn't had the bet.

Absolutely nothing wrong with changing your mind either, when I see him hurdling I may think differently ... but based on everything so far, I think I have to day I made a mistake
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Calling it a rubbish bet is a bit harsh. Due the potential upside of longer odds, most of the bets flagged up on here are for horses who have never jumped a fence or hurdle in public. Bets are also quite often made based on stable tours or books that have been published. None of those factors constitute the best betting strategy but that’s why the price is reflects it (some of the time). The ‘any race market’ may take away some of the risk associated with picking the wrong race but it can’t make a horse jump any better or make the book writers any more accurate. At the end of the day it comes down to the level of due diligence that each individual implements.
 
Thanks all, an interesting discussion to be had - and something to perhaps bear in mind as the season unfurls
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I had him down as an Albert Bartlett horse due to his breeding and also his age. He’s certainly worth following though.
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Performances over the minimum last year showed he didn't lack for pace though, and Grech and Parkin on twitter replied to a question about plans for him with "he will run in a novice hurdle in november then we will go from there. We are thinking he might be a Ballymore horse. He is a real mud lover so we will want rain until he runs". Last comment not overly positive if we're in for a proper spring ground festival... probably one to follow early part of season, definitely talented
 
Robbante said:
Performances over the minimum last year showed he didn't lack for pace though, and Grech and Parkin on twitter replied to a question about plans for him with "he will run in a novice hurdle in november then we will go from there. We are thinking he might be a Ballymore horse. He is a real mud lover so we will want rain until he runs". Last comment not overly positive if we're in for a proper spring ground festival... probably one to follow early part of season, definitely talented
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I will keep an eye on him for sure but I’d have others ahead of him on my Ballymore shortlist. If he looked like a real stayer then he’d interest me in the Potato Race.
 
If Annamix turns out to be as good as they think then C.O.F. will seek a different target i.e the Ballymore.
 
Carefully Selected; He’s obviously a point-to-point winner and he’s a fine bug staying horse, who could get any trip. He surprised us in his bumpers because he’s not the most flamboyant at home so we can’t wait to go jumping with him. He ran a blinder at both Cheltenham and Punchestown last season and he was always going to be a better jumper than he was a bumper horse.
HE’S GOT A HUGE SEASON AHEAD OF HIM.


Tornado Flyer; He improved hugely from his debut to finish third in the Champion Bumper and then he improved again to win at the Punchestown festival. He’s a fine big strong horse and he should have a good year over hurdles.


Blackbow: He was a big lean individual last year but he looks a stronger horse this year. He’s got a lot of natural ability, he’s a great jumper and he was one of many very good bumper horses we had last season.

Like Carefully Selected and Tornado Flyer, his connections are entitled to look forward to the year ahead. The three all look Ballymore or Albert Bartlett type horses. Although, I didn’t think Champagne Fever would be a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle horse but he won it, so who knows?
 
Chris said:
If Annamix turns out to be as good as they think then C.O.F. will seek a different target i.e the Ballymore.
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Why do you think that?

If CoF is as good as they think he is, would Annamix go elsewhere?

Way to early to consider horses avoiding each other from different yards.
 
Managed to get one priced up that I think has gone way under the radar, in Stay Humble, at 33/1 with Bet365 and PP said they will put it up at 50/1 shortly!!

He had been a talking horse for quite a bit of time before he made his debut at Fairyhouse where he could only manage a disappointing 4th place. It then took him another 3 attempts before getting off the mark on the flat, winning a low key race at Downpatrick.

He missed the Cheltenham festival this year, where he was quite strong in the Bumper market before his first defeat, but I don't see the skipping of this race a negative at all, in fact I'd be happier to back him knowing he missed the Bumper, as it's not a race I like using in finding the following seasons novice hurdlers, with the exception of the Albert Bartlett.

He won his maiden hurdle, over 3m, and only naturally he was added to the Albert Bartlett market at a big 40/1, however I am not so sure that is where he'd be best placed myself, breeding would suggest an intermediate trip would be preferential and I'm happy to go along with that. I am not reading anything into what he beat on hurdles debut, as they will all likely turn out to be irrelevant in terms of class, another reason why a debut over 3m would not have been an issue IMO, because his class was always going to be enough to beat them.

He was obviously late in getting on course, suggesting he either had issues or was just a little slow getting his act together, but either way he does not look to have any problems with whatever it was now, given he won his last 2 races comfortably enough, and improvement may well be and have to be on the cards now.

The fact PP have offered 50's would not feel me with a whole heap of confidence, as they rarely get the market wrong, especially when it comes to WPM's runners, however, I will take the leap of faith, if only small, as I do feel 50's on a Mullins runner who is 1 from 1 over hurdles and is likely to improve a lot now he has got his act together is somewhat big!

He has an entry on Sunday over 2m 4f, so will be interesting to see if he takes up that race, as WPM has a few entered for that one.
 
“Stay Humble has started to mature and now looks a good bit stronger. He came with a big reputation — and while he didn’t quite live up to it last season, he’s starting to show us what he was supposed to have at home lately.

“He’s a galloper and he stays really well, so he might be an Albert Bartlett type horse.”
 
He and several others have been put in the Galway race to get a mark from the handicapper. 128 by the look of it.
 
He doesn't run, which is no big deal anyway, plenty of time for him.

I hadn't seen that quote Innoko, so thanks, however I always envisioned them saying he was going to potentially be an Albert Bartlett type, but I'd respectfully disagree for now, despite my knowledge being far less superior to theirs, I think at this stage of the season I am happy to take most quotes with a pinch of salt :)
 
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