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Arkle 2020

kinloch brae said:
Blue on oddschecker for Brewinupastorm. Bookmakers must love Segal.

Which bit of his form suggests he anywhere near a Grade 1 chaser over two miles?
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He’s only run twice and won both. The first run ahead of Good Boy Bobby, Global Citizen and Mignight Shadow is decent enough form.

He has good hurdles form and on the old course too.

I think 10s is fair in a terrible terrible division. It’s not as if he’s 5/1.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
He’s only run twice and won both. The first run ahead of Good Boy Bobby, Global Citizen and Mignight Shadow is decent enough form.

He has good hurdles form and on the old course too.

I think 10s is fair in a terrible terrible division. It’s not as if he’s 5/1.
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Do you know if he's due to have another run?
 
jack1092 said:
Do you know if he's due to have another run?
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He’s going straight there now. Originally being trained for the Kingmaker but Murphy wasn’t happy running him at what he described as 75% fitness. Said he’d prefer to go there fresh as his record fresh is good. Reckon if he’d have won the Kingmaker on Sat he’d have been 6s at best now, so represents value in a thin market IMO.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
If I was going to back him it'd have to be with NRNB insurance. He looks a doubtful runner to me given that he's only had the 1 start.
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Did precisely this FM, cashed my 365 bet and put it on with sky free bet this week at the same price too 25/1.
 
Kevloaf said:
That is why I think Brewin'upastorm will be the 'hipsters' kind of tip, but there won't be much substance to it..... I feel the Irish are quite a way clear.


I can't prove that, obviously.
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Form has been franked all season in bits and pieces but always dangerous to assume he'd still be ahead of all the horses he beat...

Morley Street said:
Think he’ll still shorten Kev as the the pecking order of the 3 Irish potentially ahead of him should be sorted soon and punters will still be looking for an alternative.
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Looks like you were right Morely Street on the price!

Was 14/1 when we had this discussion, now the "value" is him boosted to 10's!

I got him in the book at 14's as soon as Pricewise put him up hoping to cash out, however I did it with PP so I'm stuck with him for now.....




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That said, be some training performance to win an Arkle given his prep.... I do love Olly Murphy though, he's still on an upward curve.
 
Didn’t I call him out as the value bet at 14s first, Kev? Seem to remember we had a lengthy exchange on the matter. :devilish:
 
TCH29 said:
Didn’t I call him out as the value bet at 14s first, Kev? Seem to remember we had a lengthy exchange on the matter. :devilish:
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You did, hence why you're the hipster tipster, I disagreed then on the actual reasons and still do to be fair :highly_amused:

Horses do shorten for the wrong reasons though - and I like to make money ;)



Part 1 - beat the SP
Part 2 - work out who wins
Part 3 - Collect and boast.
:highly_amused:
 
Annamix still 25/1 with bet365 NRNB. Cashed my 25s and put back on NRNB
 
Are 365 nrnb now?

Edit - just seen sticky nrnb thread haha
 
Melon is a bit of a stupid price at 25/1 NRNB in the Arkle, based on his Champion Hurdle form alone that's too big.

No risk IMO
 
I had him in an earlier bet at 20/1 and the cash out and backing it at 25/1 actually gives me a tiny bit more if he comes in!
 
Have a feeling he won't be here either but at least I have the cover now. And like you said no chance he goes off at 25/1.

In saying that though, I seem to remember him being a good price in the morning of the churdle and being backed off the boards just before the off a couple of years ago
 
Kevloaf said:
Melon is a bit of a stupid price at 25/1 NRNB in the Arkle, based on his Champion Hurdle form alone that's too big.

No risk IMO
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Warming to this after discussions with Jack and Charlie earlier today, having gone over his profile a little more tonight.
 
How many do we see lining up this year? A quick skim through the betting and it looks like it'll be double figures, potentially 12+.

As a result, it will be an absolute burn up with no hiding place on the front end, and I'd worry about the front runners getting home up the hill.
 
Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!! :D
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!! :D
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I think we are on the same page with those 2, HE.
 
Hardy Eustace said:
Fakir, Notebook, Cashback, Global Citizen, put the kettle on - all front runners this will suit a hold up horse. The race is made for brewinupastorm for me - my only concern is a lack of chase expeirence. 2 starts when they will go as fast as they do will put his jumping under pressure - i Just hope Olly has him well schooled. The race could be run to suit Al Dancer as well but I won't get there again!! :D
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Just because there are a lot of front runners in the race doesnt necessarily mean it will suit a hold up horse, this only comes into it if they take eachother on and go too fast like footpads arkle. In the irish arkle the last day cash back and notebook were front runners yet that didnt mean a hold up horse would win, its only if the jockeys aboard make a mistake pace wise. Notebook happy enough to take a lead from cash back or fakir anyway (if fakir even turns up in this)
 
darlojim said:
Just because there are a lot of front runners in the race doesnt necessarily mean it will suit a hold up horse, this only comes into it if they take eachother on and go too fast like footpads arkle. In the irish arkle the last day cash back and notebook were front runners yet that didnt mean a hold up horse would win, its only if the jockeys aboard make a mistake pace wise. Notebook happy enough to take a lead from cash back or fakir anyway (if fakir even turns up in this)
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Was going to suggest Notebook sitting in behind the leaders not necessarily going for it hammer and tong up front, don't think he needs too tbh.

The other are very likely to want to lead and could cut their own throats in doing so, so can see why the 'hold up horse' would look the backable one at this stage. I think Brewin'upastorm has a fair shout on this basis.
 
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