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Arkle 2020

charlie said:
You were sure she will not be running over 2 miles again, yet here we are.
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And they will realise their mistake the hard way. That said it's very decent place prize money so might as well take that , get further match practice and then step up in trip.
 
I think Fakir’s performance vs Samcro was the best novice chasing performance of the season so far. His jumping was so fast and low. Would Samcro have won? We will never know. My main concerns about Fakir are his need for soft ground and the loss of his weight for age allowance at the turn of the year.

The Willie Mullins bingo is always difficult to predict, however, I would hazard a guess that Laurina will be aimed at the JLT. I think she was impressive last time out but I don’t think the rest of her form is not knockout (yet). Her performance was also impressive but my suspicion is that the longer trip of the JLT would be more to her liking.
 
Scooby91 said:
FWIW I hope you are right, she makes a howler. And she's in the CH.
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Absolutely no chance. Madness personified. Love that word........ personified that is...
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
I think Fakir’s performance vs Samcro was the best novice chasing performance of the season so far. His jumping was so fast and low. Would Samcro have won? We will never know. My main concerns about Fakir are his need for soft ground and the loss of his weight for age allowance at the turn of the year.

The Willie Mullins bingo is always difficult to predict, however, I would hazard a guess that Laurina will be aimed at the JLT. I think she was impressive last time out but I don’t think the rest of her form is not knockout (yet). Her performance was also impressive but my suspicion is that the longer trip of the JLT would be more to her liking.
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Samcro would have won. Laurina should do the same. I don't get how it could be the best novice chasing performance when he would have been easily beaten.
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
I think Fakir’s performance vs Samcro was the best novice chasing performance of the season so far. His jumping was so fast and low. Would Samcro have won? We will never know. My main concerns about Fakir are his need for soft ground and the loss of his weight for age allowance at the turn of the year.

The Willie Mullins bingo is always difficult to predict, however, I would hazard a guess that Laurina will be aimed at the JLT. I think she was impressive last time out but I don’t think the rest of her form is not knockout (yet). Her performance was also impressive but my suspicion is that the longer trip of the JLT would be more to her liking.
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Thought I'd go in under another username to back myself up..........
 
Scooby91 said:
Samcro would have won. Laurina should do the same. I don't get how it could be the best novice chasing performance when he would have been easily beaten.
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Think he meant at 2 miles. Agree if Samcro stayed up he would have won but at 2, no.
 
Scooby91 said:
Samcro would have won. Laurina should do the same. I don't get how it could be the best novice chasing performance when he would have been easily beaten.
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Scooby, the is only reason I think Fakir’s was the best performance is because he didn’t fall, unlike Samcro. The fences need to be jumped. Had Samcro jumped the last and powered home then I would be saying Samcro’s was the best novice chase performance of the season, but he didn’t. Without doubt they are class horses as is Laurina.
 
I could also use the argument that she is only taking on Fakir because Faugheen is going to Limerick instead (as per Mullins comments after her last win) but I won't.
 
Scooby - Does Laurina being found out at 2m over hurdles not give you cause for concern about targeting the 2m Arkle? I would have thought last year’s Champion Hurdle defeat would have informed all concerned that 2 1/2 miles is the more suitable target. Obviously, I appreciate that 2m over hurdles doesn’t necessarily translate to 2m over fences but I would have thought that would be the start point for determining the most suitable distance. I get she’s back into novice company but even so. Do you look at it differently?
 
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Ruby thinks the step back to 2 miles will be tough for Laurina and thinks Fakir will win. As I've said before though, don't trust the man !
 
Is Fanion D'estruval an intended runner in the wayward lad?
 
Lobos said:
I never said she'd never meet Fakir but.....I'm certain Fakir wins this. They are simply testing the waters but he will jump her silly. There is no way she'll go Churdle again either... That is a silly suggestion. She is JLT bound I'm sure if that. Fakir will go off fav at Xmas as well. Flip flopping.
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You love to be "certain" on things Lobos.....
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
Scooby - Does Laurina being found out at 2m over hurdles not give you cause for concern about targeting the 2m Arkle? I would have thought last year’s Champion Hurdle defeat would have informed all concerned that 2 1/2 miles is the more suitable target. Obviously, I appreciate that 2m over hurdles doesn’t necessarily translate to 2m over fences but I would have thought that would be the start point for determining the most suitable distance. I get she’s back into novice company but even so. Do you look at it differently?
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No harm, but if Laurina was found out, what was Fakir? Champion hurdles vs Juvenile hurdles (and a supreme).....i know what's better.
 
Hi Jack - Fair point. I guess one of the differences between the two for me is that there were already noises before the Champion Hurdle that the 2m would be a challenge for Laurina. I was never convinced Mullins and Walsh truly believed Laurina should have run in the Champion Hurdle. I seem to recall it being more owner driven than anything else. With respect to Fakir, I just think his jumping provides him with an advantage over others which wasn’t the case over hurdles. Is 2m his best distance? I’m not sure, maybe 2.5m is but from what I’ve seen so far I think his jumping would work well over 2m. It’s quite possible Laurina will win especially with the allowance but I was really impressed with Fakir.
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
Hi Jack - Fair point. I guess one of the differences between the two for me is that there were already noises before the Champion Hurdle that the 2m would be a challenge for Laurina. I was never convinced Mullins and Walsh truly believed Laurina should have run in the Champion Hurdle. I seem to recall it being more owner driven than anything else. With respect to Fakir, I just think his jumping provides him with an advantage over others which wasn’t the case over hurdles. Is 2m his best distance? I’m not sure, maybe 2.5m is but from what I’ve seen so far I think his jumping would work well over 2m. It’s quite possible Laurina will win especially with the allowance but I was really impressed with Fakir.
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Ruby rode Laurina though
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
Scooby - Does Laurina being found out at 2m over hurdles not give you cause for concern about targeting the 2m Arkle? I would have thought last year’s Champion Hurdle defeat would have informed all concerned that 2 1/2 miles is the more suitable target. Obviously, I appreciate that 2m over hurdles doesn’t necessarily translate to 2m over fences but I would have thought that would be the start point for determining the most suitable distance. I get she’s back into novice company but even so. Do you look at it differently?
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as jack has just said, it's a completely different ball game.

I was dead against laurina and samcro for the CH. Not because they're shit, but because it's a 2m champion hurdle in open company and was a mighty step up in a strong year.

I haven't backed laurina as I could never get on at a decent price with cashout. But she has a big chance no doubt.
On the other hand Imo at 10/1 or less, I'd avoid fakir like the plague.

Iv luckily stumbled across fanion d'estruval who in really like, and I'm happy to take on the pair of fakir and laurina With what i perceive to be value.
But i wont win every race, that's for sure,
 
Cheltenham Novice Chase said:
Hi Jack - Fair point. I guess one of the differences between the two for me is that there were already noises before the Champion Hurdle that the 2m would be a challenge for Laurina. I was never convinced Mullins and Walsh truly believed Laurina should have run in the Champion Hurdle. I seem to recall it being more owner driven than anything else. With respect to Fakir, I just think his jumping provides him with an advantage over others which wasn’t the case over hurdles. Is 2m his best distance? I’m not sure, maybe 2.5m is but from what I’ve seen so far I think his jumping would work well over 2m. It’s quite possible Laurina will win especially with the allowance but I was really impressed with Fakir.
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Fakir has the allowance theyre off levels.
She'd get 7 if they met in march.
 
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