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Arkle 2020

Istabraq said:
I was there today and although AD appeared to win well the one to take from the race was the second.
Never put in the race, never closer than 8l to the leader and never asked for any sort of effort until after the last and was beaten just 4l, no doubt ridden to orders which raises any number of questions but if the Skeltons want to win with him before a plot the talent is certainly there....
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I'd have that more to do with race fitness having already had a run and being held up so having more in the tank for the later stages. Al Dancer and Getaway Trump will come on for the run.
 
On another subject.
Laurina still being 14-1 with B365.
I'm sure is to do with cash out.
They must have a small liability in comparison to all the other bookmakers.
But I think they're in a position with her that they're loath to cut her due to the cash out option.
They'll only cut her when they really have too.
And 14-1 this far out on her is probably fair (the other bookies prices are shite)

They are definitely playing a different game. They over reacted to Getaway Trump today, and I'm certain this was to alter the cash out too.
 
The 365 traders are in over their heads. Too many connotations to juggle!

It seems to be why they’re so rigid on there opening prices for markets that aren’t priced up across the board! Still reeling over the 20/1 Midnight Run AB quote :sorrow:
 
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ComplyOrDie said:
Not the first time Getaway Trump has been travelling all over rivals and not won.

The further the better for him.
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I disagree. His high cruising speed is perfectly suited to 2m and best form is over 2m. He doesn't see out the trip going further and definately didn't see out 2m today but that I believe was down to race fitness.
 
SamuelP said:
I disagree. His high cruising speed is perfectly suited to 2m and best form is over 2m. He doesn't see out the trip going further and definately didn't see out 2m today but that I believe was down to race fitness.
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His best performance last season for me was his only Grade 1 run over 2m 4f in the Challow.

Given how Champ then went on to finish 2nd in the Ballymore (Grade 1) and then winning at Aintree (another Grade 1) I'd say that was easily his best piece of form.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
His best performance last season for me was his only Grade 1 run over 2m 4f in the Challow.

Given how Champ then went on to finish 2nd in the Ballymore (Grade 1) and then winning at Aintree (another Grade 1) I'd say that was easily his best piece of form.
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Yes tbf that is his strongest piece of form but didn't they go a crawl that day making it more a test of speed than stamina. I was thinking more about his run at Kelso where he appeared to fade badly late on. I think his 2 runs at the back end of last year have also been unfairly knocked, he won at Ayr against some not bad yardsticks very easily, pulling away with ease having only been given a nudge. And didn't he break the course record that day? Then the handicap you've got to appreciate that he was carrying a stone more than the rest of the field at the end of a long season and he again won easily.
 
He scoped badly after that Kelso run
 
Despite two festival wins over fences at 2 miles, STD just looks so funny and he puts me off :highly_amused:

Like a little rag doll, flailing his legs around like they're not attached.



How weak the rest of the division looks on paper is moot at the moment, it was a decent enough debut from Al Dancer - an interesting one from Getaway Trump but personally I don't think either will be winning an Arkle. [Easy to say this far out]

I wasn't keen on either last year and nothing about them today has made me change my mind. To be honest, they'll need to blow me away at some point for me to change my mind... if they don't improve for chasing, I'll be looking elsewhere.



***the 33/1 that people have with the position it puts them in is great, something I usually do as often as possible... just didn't fancy it with AD or GT - so I'll have to see if I'm right a few months down the line, as plenty of shrewd judges here like at least one of them :)
 
Kevloaf said:
Despite two festival wins over fences at 2 miles, STD just looks so funny and he puts me off :highly_amused:

Like a little rag doll, flailing his legs around like they're not attached.



How weak the rest of the division looks on paper is moot at the moment, it was a decent enough debut from Al Dancer - an interesting one from Getaway Trump but personally I don't think either will be winning an Arkle. [Easy to say this far out]

I wasn't keen on either last year and nothing about them today has made me change my mind. To be honest, they'll need to blow me away at some point for me to change my mind... if they don't improve for chasing, I'll be looking elsewhere.



***the 33/1 that people have with the position it puts them in is great, something I usually do as often as possible... just didn't fancy it with AD or GT - so I'll have to see if I'm right a few months down the line, as plenty of shrewd judges here like at least one of them :)
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Yes I think whichever Mullins horse establishes themselves as the number 1 for this race is very much where I would want my money, but like you say 33s on AD and GT is no bad thing. Interested to see Thomas Darby but again don't rate him as a top notcher. Think Felix Desjy would have been interesting but that's looking unlikely this year now
 
SamuelP said:
Yes I think whichever Mullins horse establishes themselves as the number 1 for this race is very much where I would want my money, but like you say 33s on AD and GT is no bad thing. Interested to see Thomas Darby but again don't rate him as a top notcher. Think Felix Desjy would have been interesting but that's looking unlikely this year now
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Formwise there aren't many in there better likely to run?
 
jack1092 said:
Formwise there aren't many in there better likely to run?
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True enough and I've backed him, Al Dancer and Getaway Trump at decent enough prices and will probs use cash out once I get an idea of who's the better over fences. However Thomas Darby won 2 out of 5 last season (one of which was an easy warm up race for Cheltenham) and you could even argue that the Supreme made him look better as he was held up and running past tired horses towards the end on soft ground who were unable to go with Klassical Dream. Either way he's solid enough and 25/1 with cashout a good enough price, but I don't think you could say his form is top notch. Pretty certain the Irish, in particular Mullins, hold the aces for this race so I'm not getting too carried away by what happens over in UK
 
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SamuelP said:
True enough and I've backed him, Al Dancer and Getaway Trump at decent enough prices and will probs use cash out once I get an idea of who's the better over fences. However Thomas Darby won 2 out of 5 last season (one of which was an easy warm up race for Cheltenham) and you could even argue that the Supreme made him look better as he was held up and running past tired horses towards the end on soft ground who were unable to go with Klassical Dream. Either way he's solid enough and 25/1 with cashout a good enough price, but I don't think you could say his form is top notch. Pretty certain the Irish, in particular Mullins, hold the aces for this race so I'm not getting too carried away by what happens over in UK
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Points taken, on the other hand, you could argue he is a horse that wouldn't want soft ground either. Was pulled previously + trainer said it isn't ideal. He finished lame as well!

I've him backed, i wouldn't say it's a mega confident fancy, but his form is solid + there's plenty in there that won't run.
 
jack1092 said:
Points taken, on the other hand, you could argue he is a horse that wouldn't want soft ground either. Was pulled previously + trainer said it isn't ideal. He finished lame as well!

I've him backed, i wouldn't say it's a mega confident fancy, but his form is solid + there's plenty in there that won't run.
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Sounds like we've backed him for same reasons and I'm hoping he is very good but like you it's not a mega confident fancy, but it's a 25/1 shot not 2/1 so let's hope for a good performance first time out
And that's a good point you make about him not wanting soft ground and still running well at Cheltenham, so fingers crossed
 
Quick grabim has an entry on Monday at Wexford in a 2mile beginners chase
 
Find myself in full agreement with Kev
Has read my mind
Look across the water for the winner
 
Has anyone heard of any chasing plans for bapaume this year? He has never looked a chasing type to me but he’s priced up in the arkle/JLT?
 
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