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Arkle 2020

Just something I noticed WPM saying about "keeping him at 2 miles, for now..."

Plus I think he was originally sourced as a possible GC horse. Then again plans change.
 
Fakir D'oudaries looks to be the forgotten horse for me.
Not sure where his prep will be or whether he stays over 2m but it could be the form of the Christmas defeat to Notebook is being taken too literally, nothing says FD can't reverse that result...
 
If Fakir couldn’t beat him with a weight allowance I can’t see any obvious reason he should reverse the form without one
 
FaugheenTheMachine said:
If Fakir couldn’t beat him with a weight allowance I can’t see any obvious reason he should reverse the form without one
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Probably lost 3-4 lengths when Walsh lost his irons after jumping 3 out.
Too literal to say he would have won by a length or so had that not happened but these are fine margins that can make the difference and given better luck/better ride for me there’s no reason he can’t reverse the form...
 
Istabraq said:
Fakir D'oudaries looks to be the forgotten horse for me.
Not sure where his prep will be or whether he stays over 2m but it could be the form of the Christmas defeat to Notebook is being taken too literally, nothing says FD can't reverse that result...
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I think Notebook is be the worst favourite at the festival at the moment. I have a huge question mark over that form at Christmas and I'd like to see him repeat it at DRF before I'd be tempted to back him.

What was the last horse to win an Arkle with a hurdle rating of 135 or lower? I'm guessing it would be Western Warhorse - and he was 50/1!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think Notebook is be the worst favourite at the festival at the moment. I have a huge question mark over that form at Christmas and I'd like to see him repeat it at DRF before I'd be tempted to back him.

What was the last horse to win an Arkle with a hurdle rating of 135 or lower? I'm guessing it would be Western Warhorse - and he was 50/1!
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At current prices I’d say it’s on par with Champ

The however /but addendum is Notebook was available at big AP prices .
Champ wasn’t

Also agree Fakir could easily turn form around but open race and others in the shake up
thank goodness atm it’s not the farce we had last year
 
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Henry De Bromhead brings his horses along slowly and it doesn’t have to be a world beater in this field to win (which is average at best) I get what you’re saying though. I can’t see Melon going here, Bapaume could be the one along with cash back. Can’t have brewinupastorm on my brain, don’t think the trainer is any good for a start. Just a personal opinion and one shared by a few people who have dragged horses out of his yard.
 
I agree a terrible price, but what other horses do you think there are to challenge outside of NB & FD? Nobody was getting near Cilaos last year had he stayed fit - I think the same for this year with the top two in the betting.
 
Humble Pie said:
The however /but addendum is Notebook was available at big AP prices .
Champ wasn’t

Also agree Fakir could easily turn form around but open race and others in the shake up
thank goodness atm it’s not the farce we had last year
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Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be on at 50/1 like a few on here are but I'm purely going off the price he is now.

I agree a terrible price, but what other horses do you think there are to challenge outside of NB & FD?.
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I've not given up on Al Dancer - really think a strongly run two miles, at Cheltenham, will suit him down to the ground.
Bapaume - highest rated hurdler
Brewinupastorm - will stay the trip well and I can see him grinding it out up the hill.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think Notebook is be the worst favourite at the festival at the moment. I have a huge question mark over that form at Christmas and I'd like to see him repeat it at DRF before I'd be tempted to back him.

What was the last horse to win an Arkle with a hurdle rating of 135 or lower? I'm guessing it would be Western Warhorse - and he was 50/1!
Click to expand...

If he wins at the Dublin Fest he could be an unbackable price. There looks to be nothing from UK and if he looks the pick of the irish could be even money! Or maybe slightly bigger

I accept Brewin could step up from UK to be fair
 
Fakir might have a hurdle rating of 149 but is that not because (realistically) juveniles are massively overrated?

Klassical dream got 154 for his supreme win, Fakir was 10 lengths and 8lbs lighter off and given 150.

There is nothing to suggest that off levels he will be able to get closer to Notebook than at Christmas over fences. He might have lost 3-4 lengths but off levels he has another 5 to find, and to my eye Notebook would have won further the further they went (or if they had a giant hill to run up)
 
Brewin is also a horse I’d considered for this, and I think is a threat. I‘ll likely back on the day - after i spend my usual Monday ahead of the festival reviewing/worrying/doubting my antepost selections :dejection: however I can’t see the price on the day being too different from now, maybe cut a couple points. I’d expect if anything Notebook & FD’s prices to go shorter, especially once the race cuts up.
 
callhimgamblor said:
"still in" --> "still listed in ante post markets".
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But once they are added at the start of the season they are always going to remain in the betting.

Zero chance of RSA. The other three are possibilities to varying degrees.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
I think Notebook is be the worst favourite at the festival at the moment. I have a huge question mark over that form at Christmas and I'd like to see him repeat it at DRF before I'd be tempted to back him.

What was the last horse to win an Arkle with a hurdle rating of 135 or lower? I'm guessing it would be Western Warhorse - and he was 50/1!
Click to expand...

I know you're a moderator, but the rule is you get banned if you mention that horses name :p

Surprised you think he's the worst fav at the current price. I think he's an okay price because people under estimate horses when it's a "shock" when they win/cause an upset.
 
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I think that horse whos name we cant say would be a great avatar for you Kev :highly_amused:
 
Kevloaf said:
I know you're a moderator, but the rule is you get banned if you mention that horses name :p

Surprised you think he's the worst fav at the current price. I think he's an okay price because people under estimate horses when it's a "shock" when they win/cause an upset.
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He's priced on the win at Xmas though and that form could easily be a bit flakey.

If he backs it up at DRF then I'll be proved wrong and will have to reassess.
 
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