• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Arkle 2020

I can't have Melon on my mind either... price looks incredibly short.

As scooby said, must be some incredible value in the betting for this race when you look at those at the top of the lists... most won't run in this.

Very disappointed Elixir de Nutz is staying over hurdles, think he would have been my main pick for this.

Keep coming back to Thomas Darby at 25/1. Take KD out of the Supreme and he showed a great attitude to hold off Itchy Feet up the hill.
 
Don't fancy strongly any of the ones near top of the market. And as has already been said. Lots are not going to come here.
Already backed Grand Sancy, as fancy one of nichols novices will likely make an impression, added it to B365 and was very happy with 40's.
Backed Quick Grabim also and hope they go chasing as he looks a definite 2 miler and running style may well suit.

Like the chances of Getaway Trump & Thomas Darby although both will need to be campaigned well and especially TD as he looks like another Kalashnikov to me and needs further (or a strongly run race on soft) to be at his best.

I've just backed Notebook at 50's, been watching the Punchestown meet from the other day and he jumped a perfect round under another excellent ride from Blackmore (she presents them at the fence really well, especially when they're talented enough anyway).
Not that good over hurdles but was probably always likely to be a better chaser after coming from PTP's.
Be amazed if it's good enough, but they all look shite right now and it looks good enough to shorten in price and win one or two races anyway.
 
I like the look of Quick Grabim too, but just waiting on news regarding which route he goes down.
 
quevega said:
.
Be amazed if it's good enough, but they all look shite right now and it looks good enough to shorten in price and win one or two races anyway.
Click to expand...

Maybe a tad strong Q. There isn't a standout at the moment but there are a few that could be really good.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Maybe a tad strong Q. There isn't a standout at the moment but there are a few that could be really good.
Click to expand...

Possibly Klassical Dream aside,
IMO the last couple of supreme novice hurdles have been average, the better novice chasers (from the novice hurdle division of last season) look to be stayers again this season.

There is no standout arkle horse, I'd normally write off Melon completely due to three years hurdling, but it's Mullins and he's a genius and Melon has ran all his best races on the second Tuesday in March.
 
quevega said:
Don't fancy strongly any of the ones near top of the market. And as has already been said. Lots are not going to come here.
Already backed Grand Sancy, as fancy one of nichols novices will likely make an impression, added it to B365 and was very happy with 40's.
Backed Quick Grabim also and hope they go chasing as he looks a definite 2 miler and running style may well suit.

Like the chances of Getaway Trump & Thomas Darby although both will need to be campaigned well and especially TD as he looks like another Kalashnikov to me and needs further (or a strongly run race on soft) to be at his best.

I've just backed Notebook at 50's, been watching the Punchestown meet from the other day and he jumped a perfect round under another excellent ride from Blackmore (she presents them at the fence really well, especially when they're talented enough anyway).
Not that good over hurdles but was probably always likely to be a better chaser after coming from PTP's.
Be amazed if it's good enough, but they all look shite right now and it looks good enough to shorten in price and win one or two races anyway.
Click to expand...

I'm glad someone else has backed Notebook for this. 50s with cashout is worth a pop: HdB's last two winners of that particular Beginners' Chase were Some Plan and Petit Mouchoir, and they both ended up in the Arkle in March. Notebook would have to improve massively to even make the field at this stage, but as you say Q, the horse just wasn't tried over hurdles and is clearly a superb natural jumper, so has the sort of profile where you can keep your fingers crossed for a 20 pound improvement over the bigger obstacles. Anyway, the price is 50/1 so of course there are going to be negatives.
 
Coneygree15 said:
I'm glad someone else has backed Notebook for this. 50s with cashout is worth a pop: HdB's last two winners of that particular Beginners' Chase were Some Plan and Petit Mouchoir, and they both ended up in the Arkle in March. Notebook would have to improve massively to even make the field at this stage, but as you say Q, the horse just wasn't tried over hurdles and is clearly a superb natural jumper, so has the sort of profile where you can keep your fingers crossed for a 20 pound improvement over the bigger obstacles. Anyway, the price is 50/1 so of course there are going to be negatives.
Click to expand...

Nothing to do with notebook himself. But just personal opinion that i'v never got this line of de bromhead is amazing with 2m chasers. Going from hurdles to fences and improving a ton.

Imo Hes done a pretty poor job of identity thief / petit mouchoir who were big prospects with very high hurdle ratings,

the same thoughts were applied to paloma blue last year, and although I didn't rate the horse, he got very little out of him.
 
On Notebook lads, i thought he looked a big bull on the tv anyway. Unless the 2nd giggy horse is a pony lol. Was impressive first time up anyway.
 
Itchy Feet and Grand Sancy both confirmed for the Listed Hurdle at Kempton on Sunday. Probably not an indication of their future plans as they could be after a nice pot and checking to see what improvement they've made over hurdles, before committing to chasing. If they do go chasing afterwards then at least they'll be race fit.
 
Scooby91 said:
Nothing to do with notebook himself. But just personal opinion that i'v never got this line of de bromhead is amazing with 2m chasers. Going from hurdles to fences and improving a ton.

Imo Hes done a pretty poor job of identity thief / petit mouchoir who were big prospects with very high hurdle ratings,

the same thoughts were applied to paloma blue last year, and although I didn't rate the horse, he got very little out of him.
Click to expand...

Agree with that, it's a bit of a stale observation these days. And probably never that accurate in the first place.
Bit Like Jonjo O'Neill being a good trainer to follow for the big staying handicap's (although he did alright for a few years).
 
I mentioned in the JLT thread, spreading my research on this race to include horses going over fences after 2 years over hurdles. This has come about as I couldn’t find many options for this race coming from last seasons novice hurdlers.

I would love Willie to route Sharjah over 2M fences, and 33/1 is massive if he did, but I have only heard of a further season over hurdles mentioned regarding Sharjah. Hope to be quick off the mark if a Stable Tour from Closutton suggested that fences are a possibility.

In the meantime I was impressed by NUBE NEGRA’s first run over fences. He looks a decent size, has always travelled well in his hurdle races, including when 3rd in the 2018 Fred Winter. He is a longshot to consider, especially if Dan Skelton aims him at a Cheltenham Graded Novice Chase in October/November.

His debut over fences is already rated above any rating he had achieved over hurdles. He has an Offical a Rating of 142 over fences after one run. His hurdles OR is 137.
 
Last edited:
Hamptonfox said:
I mentioned in the JLT thread, spreading my research on this race to include horses going over fences after 2 years over hurdles. This has come about as I couldn’t find many options for this race coming from last seasons novice hurdlers.

I would love Willie to route Sharjah over 2M fences, and 33/1 is massive if he did, but I have only heard of a further season over hurdles mentioned regarding Sharjah. Hope to be quick off the mark if a Stable Tour from Closutton suggested that fences are a possibility.

In the meantime I was impressed by NUBE NEGRA’s first run over fences. He looks a decent size, has always travelled well in his hurdle races, including when 3rd in the 2018 Fred Winter. He is a longshot to consider, especially if Dan Skelton aims him at a Cheltenham Graded Novice Chase in October/November.

His debut over fences is already rated above any rating he had achieved over hurdles. He has an Offical a Rating of 142 over fences after one run. His hurdles OR is 137.
Click to expand...

Might end up being a Close Brothers or Grand Annual plot with that kind of mark?
 
Kevloaf said:
Might end up being a Close Brothers or Grand Annual plot with that kind of mark?
Click to expand...

Looks and ideal type for close brothers even at this early stage.
 
My eyes tell me Thomas Darby will want the JLT trip and I've already backed at 40/1

However, until this morning I've only had a free bet on him for the Arkle - decided to back him at 25s with Cashout available this morning as I watched back the Supreme, I really, really like him and on 26th Sept Olly Murphy mentioned the Arkle... https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...r-national-hunt-season-201920-200919-801.html

So I'll go with the trainer for now and when I prove him wrong later in the season I'll cash out the Arkle bet for profit anyway :p
 
TD reminds me so much of Tidal Bay and he didn't do badly in the Arkle.....
 
Anybody fancy 25s about Summerville Boy... he apparently treats his fences with more respect than his hurdles...will need to! Seeing those colours getting up in next year’s Arkle could give some disturbing flashbacks to the Warhorse! :highly_amused:
 
Morley Street said:
Anybody fancy 25s about Summerville Boy... he apparently treats his fences with more respect than his hurdles...will need to! Seeing those colours getting up in next year’s Arkle could give some disturbing flashbacks to the Warhorse! :highly_amused:
Click to expand...

Not too dis-similar profile to defi if you fancy him.
The Supreme looking poor atm. So I wouldn't knock trying to go outside of the novices.

Im hoping thomas darby and al dancer can do the business in there respective races this week and give the race a bit of a boost. The 12/1 on melon is even looking big atm.
 
I've added Rouge Vif ew at 33/1. Was looking forward to seeing him over fences and thought that was a pretty impressive start. Jumped straight and accurate and looks every inch a chaser. Could be this seasons Lalor but worth a small dabble I think.

His hurdles form has a fairly solid look to it. Decisive winner of a Grade 2 beating Windsor Avenue who looked like a good horse himself at the weekend. He then went on to finish 3rd in the Grade One at Aintree behind Felix Desjy and Aramon which looks pretty solid form.

Probably will fall just sort of the top level, but 33/1 seems a good enough option with cash out when loads at the head of the market won't be running. I suppose the JLT could be an option but he's been kept to 2m so far.
 
There are worse 33/1 shots, and at least you've seen him jump a fence now, my problem is I just don't think he'll be good enough, although a step up in trip may be worth a shot in time.

You have noted he will probably just fall short and I think you are bang on with that assessment.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom