Arkle 2019

[Scooby91]

Potentially I could see Willie having two or three better, Gordon having two better, Nicky having one better, plus all the other British and Irish trainers, the chance of him getting injured or loss of form, he has the option of the JLT, the worst price of the festival, in my opinion. Im not saying it wasnt a nice introduction and he was fine, its a price thing, Im genuinely stunned they have shortened him and as a result Ive put a £50 lay in at 6/1 on betfair. #moneywherebigmouthis

Fair play. If you've no takers and fancy knocking up to 9/1 I'll happily oblige.

 

[Quevega]

6-1 is not far off a fair price, based on the novice hurdle form, likely competition, likely low runner field, and declared target.
It's probably just a bit skinny as they probably want to duck it a little bit as if elliott and mullins and rest of Irish trainers don't produce a stand out contender then Kalashnikov will only shorten, assuming he keeps performing.

I'd have took eights earlier after seeing him run if it were available. I also think Huntsman Son is interesting upped in trip a little, maybe for the Novice handicap chase on the tuesday, if mark can be kept under the max.

 

[mayo]

He'll be better over further

*Desperately hoping he ends up in the JLT*

In the same boat.

 

[Folski]

Its not outstanding value but it's pretty fair he just won nicely on debut. Theres nothing from last year's champion hurdle. The hype horse samcro stays hurdling. The supreme winner stays hurdling, he was a narrow 2nd, so he's the standout 2 miler in the division and very much the one to go and beat on the form book. If he was trained by mullins had all the same form he'd be 3 or 4/1 now.

Agree with that but Mullins has won 3 of the last 4 and they all won pretty easy. While I think Willie is a far better trainer of hurdlers than chasers I think he's surely worth 2 points less than a trainer who has not even won a listed chase. Not knocking Amy or anything she's flying.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Thought he did it nice enough for his debut. Was obviously a bit novicey early on and jumped a few big, as you would expect, but he jumped better as the race went on and the faster they went, which is a good sign.

Don't think you could have asked for much more of the horse at this stage of his career, and he's bound to come on a lot for it.

That said, he's being priced as if he is going to dominate the 2m novice division, and that takes a pretty big leap of faith at this stage. I'd still want a double figure price. We learnt next to nothing in the context of him being an Arkle winner or to suggest he is going to be a star novice chaser.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I know the way the antepost markets work, but the shortening of Kalashnikov to 6/1 best priced has actually shocked me. Well done to people on at decent prices, but I think at 6/1 he is the worst value antepost bet for the Cheltenham festival. I cant get my head round it.

Terrible price on many levels.

I think it's the lack of apparent opposition in the UK as much as anything. He could easily be unbeaten and "best of the British" come the festival and will therefore be a short enough.

He didn't strike me as a winner of the Arkle on that performance. Less than fluent at a number of fences and he'll have to improve a lot on that debut for me. The chasing debuts of Footpad and Altior were on a different level to Kalashnikov's.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

I think it's the lack of apparent opposition in the UK as much as anything. He could easily be unbeaten and "best of the British" come the festival and will therefore be a short enough.

He didn't strike me as a winner of the Arkle on that performance. Less than fluent at a number of fences and he'll have to improve a lot on that debut for me. The chasing debuts of Footpad and Altior were on a different level to Kalashnikov's.

I agree it looks a weak enough division, but when you see Mengli Khan at 14/1, Draconien, Cilaos Emery, Claimantakinforgan all at 20/1, Lalor at 33/1... the 6/1 Kalashnikov just looks madness to me.

 

[jono]

I'd be amazed if Kalashnikov isn't lining up in the Arkle in March. A good case was made for him in the JLT earlier in the summer at 25/1 and I was very close to backing but held off on the basis that I just couldn't and still cannot see the opposition to him over 2 miles in the UK. The market is so stacked with Irish challengers it's a challenge just trying to think who could line up against Kalashnikov and give him such a race that would force them to go up in trip. Defi du Seuil? Marias Benefit? Claimintakinforgan - but he too may go further...

It would appear all roads lead to Plumpton on Monday 3rd December for the bonus race over 2miles, then 1 more run after Christmas. Clearly connections are ambitious with the horse and I can't see any horse scaring them off from the Arkle however good they may look in Ireland.

 

[Scooby91]

I agree it looks a weak enough division, but when you see Mengli Khan at 14/1, Draconien, Cilaos Emery, Claimantakinforgan all at 20/1, Lalor at 33/1... the 6/1 Kalashnikov just looks madness to me.

He's beat mengli khan convincingly, iv backed MK and you can make a case for him but it's price related and in hope of further improvement.

Hed absolutely smash lalor. Whos a bridle merchant who likes a flat track around Aintree. And dosent finish his race anywhere else

Draconien who knows, ran a race that fell apart where he was held right up, his forms nothing like kalshnikov though.

Claimantakinforgan was outpaced by Kalashnikov convincingly and finished his race nicely. Which is why he's going over further.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I think it's the lack of apparent opposition in the UK as much as anything. He could easily be unbeaten and "best of the British" come the festival and will therefore be a short enough.

He didn't strike me as a winner of the Arkle on that performance. Less than fluent at a number of fences and he'll have to improve a lot on that debut for me. The chasing debuts of Footpad and Altior were on a different level to Kalashnikov's.

Personally I don't necessarily need him to win it, just turn up as a reasonably short price favourite (or 2nd fav) in a small field, and hope to have the main contenders covered at big AP prices (win only), acknowledging I use a lot of free bets to help with this. Slightly different tactic from the E/W betting which I understand makes some sense in races that will likely cut up.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

He's beat mengli khan convincingly, iv backed MK and you can make a case for him but it's price related and in hope of further improvement.

Hed absolutely smash lalor. Whos a bridle merchant who likes a flat track around Aintree. And dosent finish his race anywhere else

Draconien who knows, ran a race that fell apart where he was held right up, his forms nothing like kalshnikov though.

Claimantakinforgan was outpaced by Kalashnikov convincingly and finished his race nicely. Which is why he's going over further.

I'd never take hurdle form so literally myself when talking about chasing. Just look at the likes of Footpad and plenty more before him.

Way too early to be saying Lalor is a bridle merchant who likes a flat track. He's born for a fence and I expect him to improve significantly for one. He was a big baby last year. Id be more worried about the trainer myself....

 

[Scooby91]

I'd never take hurdle form so literally myself when talking about chasing. Just look at the likes of Footpad and plenty more before him.

Way too early to be saying Lalor is a bridle merchant who likes a flat track. He's born for a fence and I expect him to improve significantly for one. He was a big baby last year. Id be more worried about the trainer myself....

Footpads hurdle form was top class. No one beats device at auteuil over the fixed brush.

Fair point though i deffinately have him categorised as ungenuine. Will be interesting to see if he can improve for a fence.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Footpads hurdle form was top class. No one beats device at auteuil over the fixed brush.

Fair point though i deffinately have him categorised as ungenuine. Will be interesting to see if he can improve for a fence.

His form over hurdles was top class.... But his form over fences was much, much better. Petit Mouchoir for instance didnt see which way he went over a fence.

 

[jono]

I think it's the lack of apparent opposition in the UK as much as anything. He could easily be unbeaten and "best of the British" come the festival and will therefore be a short enough.

He didn't strike me as a winner of the Arkle on that performance. Less than fluent at a number of fences and he'll have to improve a lot on that debut for me. The chasing debuts of Footpad and Altior were on a different level to Kalashnikov's.

That's a very high level of comparison though to compare to Altior and Footpad - the former one of the best 2 milers we've seen and the latter described by Mullins as "as good a novice i've seen schooling fences" - it would be some task if he lives up to anywhere near them. We've been spoilt over the last 6 or so years for Arkle winners and comparing future years to those is a tough ask imo.

On the price at 6/1 - i'm surprised by the reaction of him being cut - surely it's largely expected? He was 7/1 before the race today and infact for at least a month or so and that was still whilst a decision on Samcro, Laurina and Melon was yet to be made where they could have gone this route. Since then the market has got less competitive and he's proved he can jump a fence, albeit not being foot perfect. For me he has the most solid and consistent form of the novices in the Supreme last year which is why despite there being little between him, MK and PB in that race on the day, the Irish horses inconsistency (slightly harsh on MK) means I can understand why they are bigger in price in comparison.

Last year Footpad was 8/1 favourite after his brilliant debut over fences but we also had seen Petit Mouchoir make a very nice debut himself a few weeks prior and importantly he had the beating of Footpad 3 times over hurdles the previous season which meant despite the performance and quotes from Mullins, Footpads price was never going to go too short straight away - without PM I imagine he'd of been much shorter.

All about the likely opposition

On the performance i wasn't overly convinced. Looked like he took a while to warm up, which could count against him in a race like the Arkle but benefit of doubt could be given for it being his debut. He improved as the race went on and also when he got to the front I felt. It's not been his style so far in his career but i'd like to see him go out from the front and really make it a test rather than tracking the leaders for most of the race.

For me the performance today didn't merit being clipped - realistically he should have stayed at 7/1 BUT the shape of the race and how bookies react meant it was inevitable.
I say all this having not backed him (for anything) by the way

 

[mayo]

There is an old stat about highest rated hurdler winning this which makes him value but not clearly better than the pack

 

[billymag]

My £50 at 6/1 has been matched, I don’t often get this whizzed up, so sorry if it sounded like a rant lol. For many reasons I stick by my comments though he is the worst value bet of the festival.

 

[Kevloaf]

Would anybody back Kalashnikov for the Arkle now, at 6/1 in either a single or a multiple?

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Would anybody back Kalashnikov for the Arkle now, at 6/1 in either a single or a multiple?

I’d stick him in a Multiple if I didn’t already have bigger prices as a single and in a couple of Yankees and a tricot.

 

[Quevega]

Would anybody back Kalashnikov for the Arkle now, at 6/1 in either a single or a multiple?

I was tempted when I thought 8-1 was available today, but 6-1, the more I think about it the more I doubt it will be a hell of a lot shorter right up to the race, cos the irish and UK horse are unlikely to be raced against each other, so even if he beats the best over here, there is going to be at least two viable challengers from Ireland, even if the irish form looks muddled, I reckon he may still be backable weeks before the festival, total guesswork but maybe anything between 2-1 and 4-1.
So No.
I backed Defi at 28s instead. Like what's being said about this horse in the yard.

 

[Kevloaf]

I was tempted when I thought 8-1 was available today, but 6-1, the more I think about it the more I doubt it will be a hell of a lot shorter right up to the race, cos the irish and UK horse are unlikely to be raced against each other, so even if he beats the best over here, there is going to be at least two viable challengers from Ireland, even if the irish form looks muddled, I reckon he may still be backable weeks before the festival, total guesswork but maybe anything between 2-1 and 4-1.
So No.
I backed Defi at 28s instead. Like what's being said about this horse in the yard.

I backed Defi after he won the Triumph for the Arkle, before he flopped that season.

I feel totally different now, I lean towards the point Ista brings up that pretty much all of the decent Triumph horses end up needing further...

That said, at 28/1 you can definitely take a chance... I am not on but can't knock it.