Arkle 2019

[BigChaang]

Agreed, I ca see both Willie and Elliott main contenders becoming more favourable as we near the Irish Festival and the main event in March

It appears our Winter months have yet to start, and if its anything to go by from last year, we could be in for a testing cheltenham festival. Freshness could play a big part

As it stands, its difficult to make a case for some of their horses, but that means bigger prices in the antepost markets...

I think our lot look weak for this years Arkle, with myself taking silly prices on horses that havent produced yet or even ran yet (Slate House for one)

Slate house entered on sunday at Plumpton Opatcho @1-10. The bonus race .

 

[bobbyvalentino]

If there are Mullins novice chasers going into Cheltenham off the back of one run at Leopardstown I'll certainly be looking to taking them on, and hopefully they'll be making a nice market for me

 

[Kevloaf]

Obviously Mullins is the daddy I’m not debating that. It’s a big difference winning a mares hurdle off 1 run to winning an arkle and even less likely an rsa where they are almost always won by experienced novices! 11/12 previous winners had at least 3 runs

With the ground like it has been this season, and ELliott / Mullins being so dominant - I'd imagine these "number of race" trends to just be blown away this year for loads of races.

It isn't 'ideal', but then again, they're just better trainers so I'm not going to ignore a Mullins horse for number of runs. I did with Penhill last year effectively.

I completely get the logic, but he defies it.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Hurdles and novice chases are different ball games

I also seem to remember some conversations last year that Mullins hardly schools over fences at home for risk of injury.

 

[archie]

He won't run them unless he thinks they're ready. If he thinks they're ready, they're ready.

 

[Kevloaf]

They are, but Native River won a Gold Cup off 1 prep run, and I know he's not a novice... but Thistlecrack won a King George within 2 months of making his chase debut.

So let's not get carried away too much?

The number of runs trend is more likely to be less relevant this season - whether it is broken or not is almost not the point with the extenuating circumstances?

If Willie Mullins runs a horse with just one run over fences, I wouldn't want to oppose it for just that reason is all I'm saying

 

[Innoko]

It just might be so, that Willie doesn't have one for the Arkle this year.

Now there's a thought.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Game of opinions, what makes our sport so great. For me, I like to find reasons to take on the head of the market and lack of match practice for festival chases is an angle I often use.

 

[Kevloaf]

Game of opinions, what makes our sport so great. For me, I like to find reasons to take on the head of the market and lack of match practice for festival chases is an angle I often use.

and I'm sure that'll work.... but if that was me, this season, I'd be a little more wary than I ever have before... especially as it's WIllie Mullins....

then again, you may win bigger than you would have before because of the exact same reasons.

 

[Kevloaf]

It just might be so, that Willie doesn't have one for the Arkle this year.

Now there's a thought.

That is like reading Latin.

I can barely comprehend what you've put.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

They are, but Native River won a Gold Cup off 1 prep run, and I know he's not a novice... but Thistlecrack won a King George within 2 months of making his chase debut.

So let's not get carried away too much?

The number of runs trend is more likely to be less relevant this season - whether it is broken or not is almost not the point with the extenuating circumstances?

If Willie Mullins runs a horse with just one run over fences, I wouldn't want to oppose it for just that reason is all I'm saying

I agree with this as a lot of trainers will be in the same boat. I guess it will depend on what they showed on their first run. If the debut was good enough then I wouldn’t draw a line for this reason alone.

I’d still be looking out for something more hardened if I could

 

[Kautostar]

I’m not so sure that the runs trends will be less relevant at all, Elliott has got multiple runs into the majority of his team already and most of the English horses have got their runs in. It just seems Mullins is miles behind schedule particularly with his novices. I’d be looking to take them on.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m not so sure that the runs trends will be less relevant at all, Elliott has got multiple runs into the majority of his team already and most of the English horses have got their runs in. It just seems Mullins is miles behind schedule particularly with his novices. I’d be looking to take them on.

...and a lot of Elliott's have been below what you'd expect though? What's to say running them on "the wrong ground" hasn't messed up his chances of a successful festival?
Samcro? Laurina? Which is more likely to win a race at Cheltenham, or the Champion Hurdle? You'd say Laurina for both?

There clearly isn't a right or wrong, I was just highlighting that I think the number of runs trend with regards to Mullins is not one I'd be hoping to have a profitable festival on... but I don't think anyone would be.

 

[Kautostar]

I’m talking about novices here. Let’s put it this way I’d rather be on a battle hardened delta work in the rsa than next destination that isn’t going to have much experience now.

 

[Kevloaf]

I’m talking about novices here. Let’s put it this way I’d rather be on a battle hardened delta work in the rsa than next destination that isn’t going to have much experience now.

A pretty fair analogy.

So would I ...

but I wouldn't be anywhere near saying Next Destination can't win it.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Do we genuinely buy into him running them when they are ready, or maybe a staggered approach getting them out with an eye on the Irish Trainers Title and the other festivals this time around, and not just trained with Cheltenham in mind?

 

[Kautostar]

I’m not saying he can’t win it next destination is a quality horse but I think it’s looking more and more unlikely with the lack of runs. He’s unlikely to fit the profile of a horse I would back for that race. Anyway I’ve turned The Arkle thread into the rsa so il leave it there.

 

[Kevloaf]

Do we genuinely buy into him running them when they are ready, or maybe a staggered approach getting them out with an eye on the Irish Trainers Title and the other festivals this time around, and not just trained with Cheltenham in mind?

Irish Championship is already won.

I think he'll want his Cheltenham leading trainer title back after two years without it...

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Do we genuinely buy into him running them when they are ready, or maybe a staggered approach getting them out with an eye on the Irish Trainers Title and the other festivals this time around, and not just trained with Cheltenham in mind?

This isn't just any festival. It's Cheltenham... owners want runners, we even post in a forum 11 months in advance about it ffs

 

[ComplyOrDie]

This isn't just any festival. It's Cheltenham... owners want runners, we even post in a forum 11 months in advance about it ffs

I'm well aware of that, I have been posting for the past 3 seasons on here, but when owners like the Rooney's, as well as trainers like Ruth Jefferson come out and say it's not the be all and end all etc... it must make you wonder whether Cheltenham is always the priority. The season is long enough, so I think it is wise to suggest that the festival is not the be all and end all for every trainer, and when a trainer like Willie has the power he has available to him he also has the potential to stagger them out as and when he chooses.