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Arkle 2019

Kevloaf said:
I took a flyer over the summer on Laurina for this race (2.5 pts) and Draconien Any Race (4 pts), so I am technically on the back foot BUT

Total stake is 26.5 pts

Lalor 33/1 (win = 65 pts)
Mengli Khan 25/1 (win = 75 pts)
Cilaos Emery 28/1 (win = 116 pts)
Paloma Rubbish 25/1 (win = 55 pts)
Slate House 56/1 (win = 85 pts)
Kalashnikov 8/1 (win = 16 pts)
Getabird 20/1 & 16/1 (win = 52.5 pts)


No rush to do anything, certainly feel I'm back ahead anyway :) More of a book than you this year, posted my previously years where I haven't done that as often as I thought, but hard not to at this stage.
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Can you not cash Paloma?
 
I’ll be waiting to see Getabird jump straight before backing him, well aware his price will more than half if/when he wins on debut but I’m happy to take that blow
 
Scooby91 said:
Iv had the arkle winner every year iv backed antepost. That stat wont be changing. I won't be backing another horse in the arkle this year.

Mengli khan 20/1
Cilaos emery 28/1 (any race)
getabird 20/1 (365)


I'll quote this after the arkle. I bet I have the winner. (Bar injury)
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Love it and I hope you are right. Not much confidence in Getabird but have Lalor @ 33's, Mengli @ 22's and after much deliberation (and reading the 104 posts you put up endorsing his chances) Cilaos Emery @ 25's (any race).
 
charlie said:
Love it and I hope you are right. Not much confidence in Getabird but have Lalor @ 33's, Mengli @ 22's and after much deliberation (and reading the 104 posts you put up endorsing his chances) Cilaos Emery @ 25's (any race).
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104 posts :highly_amused:
 
For those who haven't posted 104 times about C.E :highly_amused:, Kalashnikov and Defi du seuil entered
at Plumpton next monday in the 1-00pm race.
 
Paul Kealy thinks Lalor should be evens if Mengli Khan is 7/1. Bless him.
 
I thought it was a very nice debut from MK... jumped a couple really slickly and I think a faster pace in the Arkle would only aid his jumping. Good education from Davy getting him to pop the last couple as well. Couldn't have asked a great deal more from his debut for me.

Lalor 33/1
Mengli Khan 25/1, 20/1, 12/1
Cilaos Emery (any race) 25/1

That's me done on the race now... and to a coin a fat jockey phrase, I'd be very confident I've got the winner there :highly_amused:

Could see me maybe having a saver on Kalashnikov nearer the day, but could see him being not a great deal shorter at the off. Very happy to lave Getabird alone. He is clearly a very talented horse, but he has plenty of question marks over him and I just don't see 20/1 as value at all. His run in the Supreme alone is enough to put me right off him for this.
 
Scooby91 said:
I think lalor is the worst priced of them 3. I'll happily stand by that. Huge over reaction to his win.
Too big a reaction to mengli khans too.

Do people really think dynamite dollars gets anywhere near the arkle?
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Scooby. I really don't get why you keep trying to crab Lalor's form. He's only had one run and couldn't do any more than he did.

Would Huntsmans Son get anywhere near an Arkle because that's who Kalashnikov beat? Would Forge Meadow because that's who MK beat? You can't have it all ways.

Who currently has the best chase form of the Arkle principals? Absolute no brainer.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Scooby. I really don't get why you keep trying to crab Lalor's form. He's only had one run and couldn't do any more than he did.

Would Huntsmans Son get anywhere near an Arkle because that's who Kalashnikov beat? Would Forge Meadow because that's who MK beat? You can't have it all ways.

Who currently has the best chase form of the Arkle principals? Absolute no brainer.
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Time will tell. I have a different opinion to you. That's why we have a betting market. Kalashnikovs chance I give on his hurdle runs. I seen nothing on his debut that made me think he couldn't jump a fence. Therefore imo he should be the rightful fav for now.

Lami serge came out and bolted up dosent mean he should be shorter than douvan.
Same for min and Altior.

The counter argument to that is footpad and petit mouchoir.
 
I know you have a different opinion, and thats fair enough. I also understand that's what betting is all about. But that's not the point Im making.

I just dont think it makes sense to crab Lalor simply because you don't rate Dingo Dollars. That was still the best form we've seen yet, so should be worthy of respect, even if others have a higher ceiling.

In bumpers and over hurdles, he's already comfortably beaten Vision des Flos, Bedrock, Minds Eye, Coolanly, Slate House, Style de Garde, Western Ryder, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan Black Op etc so his form does have some substance to it.

Especially for one who definitely fits into the 'whatever he did in bumpers and over hurdles was a bonus' camp.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I know you have a different opinion, and thats fair enough. I also understand that's what betting is all about. But that's not the point Im making.

I just dont think it makes sense to crab Lalor simply because you don't rate Dingo Dollars. That was still the best form we've seen yet, so should be worthy of respect, even if others have a higher ceiling.

In bumpers and over hurdles, he's already comfortably beaten Vision des Flos, Bedrock, Minds Eye, Coolanly, Slate House, Style de Garde, Western Ryder, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan Black Op etc so his form does have some substance to it.

Especially for one who definitely fits into the 'whatever he did in bumpers and over hurdles was a bonus' camp.
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I dont think iv particularly crabbed him. It's a fact that he's fav off the back of beating dynamite dollars. it might be the best on offer now but it's priced as if that will be the best form line. Which it clearly wont be. The racing post novice chase will be and that will rightfully reclaim the favourite. Until Kalashnikov faces someone of note.
 
But when it isn't the best form line anymore, the markets will react and alter accordingly.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
But when it isn't the best form line anymore, the markets will react and alter accordingly.
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My point is he wouldn't be a good bet now imo. Because how does he get shorter?? The Rp novice chase winner imo goes fav. He won't face them until Cheltenham. If he beats Kalashnikov will he get that much shorter?? They wont face off until Kempton at the earliest. Imo he's odds against to beat him anyway.


At 33s 25s very nice bet but
Where The majority think he'd be a common sense bet now. I think he's far from it
 
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Can't Catch Me said:
I know you have a different opinion, and thats fair enough. I also understand that's what betting is all about. But that's not the point Im making.

I just dont think it makes sense to crab Lalor simply because you don't rate Dingo Dollars. That was still the best form we've seen yet, so should be worthy of respect, even if others have a higher ceiling.

In bumpers and over hurdles, he's already comfortably beaten Vision des Flos, Bedrock, Minds Eye, Coolanly, Slate House, Style de Garde, Western Ryder, If The Cap Fits, Claimantakinforgan Black Op etc so his form does have some substance to it.

Especially for one who definitely fits into the 'whatever he did in bumpers and over hurdles was a bonus' camp.
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Whilst I am not quite as against Lalor as Scooby is, if we talk form then Lalor got absolutely hammered by Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, some 39 lengths getting 4lb from him also, which would put their comparative prices for this race some way off, would it not?

Lalor was certainly the most impressive chase debut IMO, however, what he beat is questionable. Claimantakinforgan is not a 2 miler, Pingshou was off the back of 570 days off a race course, Defi Du Seuil looks as though he has lost it, for whatever reason, and Dynamite Dollars will probably be a fair yard stick but nothing more.

The above taken into account, I don't think any of the other front market runners have beaten an awful lot yet either, and quite frankly unless you got on at fanciable prices (in which case congrats) they certainly make no appeal now.

The market will take a turn again once we see the Mullins lot come out, you can guarantee that much.
 
Im not saying he's a good bet now either scooby. But I dont think he's a bad bet or the wrong price.

If you think he is the wrong price, then there must be some decent value elsewhere. Do you think Kalashnikov or Mengli Khan are good bets? If you take those three horses in isolation in this market, as the current principals, they look about right to me.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Whilst I am not quite as against Lalor as Scooby is, if we talk form then Lalor got absolutely hammered by Kalashnikov in the Betfair Hurdle, some 39 lengths getting 4lb from him also, which would put their comparative prices for this race some way off, would it not?

Lalor was certainly the most impressive chase debut IMO, however, what he beat is questionable. Claimantakinforgan is not a 2 miler, Pingshou was off the back of 570 days off a race course, Defi Du Seuil looks as though he has lost it, for whatever reason, and Dynamite Dollars will probably be a fair yard stick but nothing more.

The above taken into account, I don't think any of the other front market runners have beaten an awful lot yet either, and quite frankly unless you got on at fanciable prices (in which case congrats) they certainly make no appeal now.

The market will take a turn again once we see the Mullins lot come out, you can guarantee that much.
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But only if you think that run in the Betfair Hurdle was as good as Lalor is COD? I would personally forgive any horse one bad run and wouldn't have it on mind in comparing the two over fences tbh.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
But only if you think that run in the Betfair Hurdle was as good as Lalor is COD? I would personally forgive any horse one bad run and wouldn't have it on mind in comparing the two over fences tbh.
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I agree, but then if we go down them lines we can question the horses he beat in them races, did they just have off days? Were they running at inadequate trips? Especially ones like Western Ryder, Claimantakinforgan, Black Op, who all look to need further anyway, I mean Western Ryder finished ahead of Lalor and Summerville Boy in a novice hurdle but WR couldn't get near SB in the Supreme.

The form is all a little bit confused, which is one reason why I think it will show up as being a weak year IMHO. I think it is very easy to pick out the bits of form that add to an argument, trust me I do it :devilish: and miss the bits that also need to be questioned as well.

If you factor in that connections have not gone to the festival for the past 2 seasons with him yet have gone to Aintree instead, you have to question his price right now.
 
Agree entirely about the form COD. I guess its always like that, apart from the occasions where you have the really top class horses. You could probably run the exact same race four or five times over a season and get a different result as horses will peak at different times.

Personally Im not worried about them skipping Cheltenham at all. How could you after the last run?!
 
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