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Arkle 2018

Footpad won so comfortably even with an error which suggests they went far too quick up front there, would expect better from top class jockeys with setting the right fractions
 
Well played lads, happy with my 12/1 PM in plenty of bets too placing and had Footpad covered plenty enough too so can be happy with that result.

Congrats on the winners, I know many were on Footpad at big prices on here :)
 
Hopefully a few of you were on footpad for earlier in the season. I was pretty sure he was going to win but such a relief when he goes in. What ever happens now I'm happy.
 
Scooby91 said:
Hopefully a few of you were on footpad for earlier in the season. I was pretty sure he was going to win but such a relief when he goes in. What ever happens now I'm happy.
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Well played Scooby. Did you get the wheel barrow?
 
Scooby91 said:
Hopefully a few of you were on footpad for earlier in the season. I was pretty sure he was going to win but such a relief when he goes in. What ever happens now I'm happy.
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Had Footpad 16/1 to win any race, can’t fathom now how he was ever that price
 
ryanh97 said:
Well played Scooby. Did you get the wheel barrow?
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Im in profit for the entire festival put it that way. Thanks to 33/1 16/1 any race As put up on here so hopefully 1 or 2 followed me in. Such a relief.
Everyone on here has some very good bets so if it's not today it will come good.
 
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Robbante said:
Footpad won so comfortably even with an error which suggests they went far too quick up front there, would expect better from top class jockeys with setting the right fractions
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That’s what I saw. I have no idea how to rate th at race. Brainpower doesn’t go well on that ground.
 
I thought Davy Russell let himself down in this, and PM backers, I was delighted to see them crack on being on FP, but I would be annoyed if I was on either of the front runners, they've raced on bad ground often enough this season to get the pace right
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I thought Davy Russell let himself down in this, and PM backers, I was delighted to see them crack on being on FP, but I would be annoyed if I was on either of the front runners, they've raced on bad ground often enough this season to get the pace right
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Totally agree FP done well to win but saying that PM & SC just cut each others necks, just looking at the second place horse tells you it wasn't a true run race.

Not saying FP wouldn't have beaten them anyway but them two going off like that just made it a one horse race..
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I thought Davy Russell let himself down in this, and PM backers, I was delighted to see them crack on being on FP, but I would be annoyed if I was on either of the front runners, they've raced on bad ground often enough this season to get the pace right
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As someone who was on PM from a very early stage I would have to disagree. PM is best from the front IMO, if he gets good ground (which he didn't yesterday) I think he stays on better than he did. I'd love to see a good ground race between the pair, as I think he goes a lot closer than yesterdays result, and would definitely have finished ahead of Brain Power.

It shows the gulf in class when Saint Calvados, who is a soft ground merchant couldn't go with Petit Mouchoir, who would have disliked that ground.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
As someone who was on PM from a very early stage I would have to disagree. PM is best from the front IMO, if he gets good ground (which he didn't yesterday) I think he stays on better than he did. I'd love to see a good ground race between the pair, as I think he goes a lot closer than yesterdays result, and would definitely have finished ahead of Brain Power.

It shows the gulf in class when Saint Calvados, who is a soft ground merchant couldn't go with Petit Mouchoir, who would have disliked that ground.
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Id agree footpad was differnet gravey. Jumped impeccably apart form the 1 fence where he went for a big one and ruby just wanted him to pop. PM best chance was the way he ran. He tried to win like last bague au roi and paid the penalty.
Saint calvados is a nice horse but just isn't in there league.
 
Scooby91 said:
Id agree footpad was differnet gravey. Jumped impeccably apart form the 1 fence where he went for a big one and ruby just wanted him to pop. PM best chance was the way he ran. He tried to win like last bague au roi and paid the penalty.
Saint calvados is a nice horse but just isn't in there league.
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Hopefully we will see a rematch on better ground at Aintree..
 
MrMcGoldrick said:
I thought Davy Russell let himself down in this, and PM backers, I was delighted to see them crack on being on FP, but I would be annoyed if I was on either of the front runners, they've raced on bad ground often enough this season to get the pace right
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Agree entirely. I think they tried to cover things by suggesting the horse was very free, implying he had little control. Surely he could have sat close enough to Saint Calvados without taking him on. Footpad wasn't twice as good as he was at Leopardstown. Basically, he pounced on horses who had done their running.
 
kinloch brae said:
Agree entirely. I think they tried to cover things by suggesting the horse was very free, implying he had little control Surely he could have sat close enough to Saint Calvados without taking him on. Footpad wasn't twice as good as he was at Leopardstown. Basically, he pounced on horses who had done their running.
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He wasn't extended at leopardstown he finished the race well within his comfort zone, he was value for plenty more. Chasing is a whole different ball game, 2-0 to footpad now imo. And will soon be 3-0 if they meet at punchestown. PM could have finished closer with different tactics but footpad would have been held together, going off like that was PM only chance of winning
 
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May be way off the mark with this so please pick holes in it but...

I looked at where the 1st and 2nd places in the Arkle (2008-2018) ran/finished at the previous years festival and it left a fairly small group of horses to pick from at this stage...

Top 4 from previous years Supreme (1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th) - 8/22 - 36%
1st Summerville Boy - Champion Hurdle?
2nd Kalashnikov
3rd Mengli Khan
4th Paloma Blue

Top 5 from previous years Ballymore (1st, 5th, 4th, 2nd) - 4/22 - 18%
1st Samcro
2nd Black Op - Needs further?
3rd Next Destination - Needs further?
4th Scarpeta - Would need to improve for chasing?
5th Duc Des Genievres - Would need to improve for chasing?

Any Champion Hurdle runner from previous year (4th, 8th) - 2/22 - 9%
1st Buveur D'Air - Champion Hurdle
2nd Melon
3rd Mick Jazz - Stays hurdling?
4th Identity Thief - Stayers?
5th Elgin - Stays hurdling?
6th Faugheen - Stayers?
7th Wicklow Brave - Stays hurdling?
8th Ch'tibello - Stays hurdling?
9th John Constable - Stays hurdling?
PU Charli Parcs - Would need to improve for chasing?
PU Yorkhill - N/A

Didn't run at previous festival - 8/22 - 36%

To me that leaves a shortlist of...

Kalashnikov
Mengli Khan
Paloma Blue
Samcro
Melon
+any suggestions for horses that didn't run at the festival this year.

In what order would people have those 5 of a) likely to run in the Arkle and b) assuming they were all running the likelihood of winning?
 
What a good post ^

Kalashnikov I'm sure is going chasing, JLT would surely be an option for him however it'll depend on how he's squared up through the season.

Paloma Blue - Not sure if he's going chasing, you'd assume so with the trainer... I think he was a dark horse (or wise-guy horse at least) most of the season and I was disappointed last time. His best piece of form is behind Fayonagh in a bumper in my opinion, so one to look out for but not my idea of the winner as I sit here now.

Mengli Khan - being flat bred won't interest me as a chaser until he has been over a fence, chance he goes chasing is very high... but at this stage, before seeing him jump a fence I couldn't consider him.

None of those three novice hurdlers were at the top of the class .... so at the moment I'd say if all 5 did end up in the Arkle, I'd want to be on Melon or Samcro.

I expect Melon to stay hurdling however would love to be wrong because he'd be of huge interest for the Arkle. The only horse I'd have shorter than him though if he lined up would be Samcro. I think Samcro will be going chasing and I have the Arkle as the second most likely target. I don't think it'll affect the long-term plan for Samcro if he did run in an Arkle, and he will carry my money if he's in it.

He was fav to beat Melon this year at Punchestown, and with another summer to grow, I think next year he'd beat Melon in any race...and plenty think he would have anyway. Samcro is a head above most horses and head and shoulders above any possible Arkle contenders...

A hard race to get too involved in ante-post for that reason ... at this stage.
 
Marty973 said:
May be way off the mark with this so please pick holes in it but...

I looked at where the 1st and 2nd places in the Arkle (2008-2018) ran/finished at the previous years festival and it left a fairly small group of horses to pick from at this stage...

Top 4 from previous years Supreme (1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 3rd, 4th) - 8/22 - 36%
1st Summerville Boy - Champion Hurdle?
2nd Kalashnikov
3rd Mengli Khan
4th Paloma Blue

Top 5 from previous years Ballymore (1st, 5th, 4th, 2nd) - 4/22 - 18%
1st Samcro
2nd Black Op - Needs further?
3rd Next Destination - Needs further?
4th Scarpeta - Would need to improve for chasing?
5th Duc Des Genievres - Would need to improve for chasing?

Any Champion Hurdle runner from previous year (4th, 8th) - 2/22 - 9%
1st Buveur D'Air - Champion Hurdle
2nd Melon
3rd Mick Jazz - Stays hurdling?
4th Identity Thief - Stayers?
5th Elgin - Stays hurdling?
6th Faugheen - Stayers?
7th Wicklow Brave - Stays hurdling?
8th Ch'tibello - Stays hurdling?
9th John Constable - Stays hurdling?
PU Charli Parcs - Would need to improve for chasing?
PU Yorkhill - N/A

Didn't run at previous festival - 8/22 - 36%

To me that leaves a shortlist of...

Kalashnikov
Mengli Khan
Paloma Blue
Samcro
Melon
+any suggestions for horses that didn't run at the festival this year.

In what order would people have those 5 of a) likely to run in the Arkle and b) assuming they were all running the likelihood of winning?
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That’s a quite magnificent post.

I’m a big fan of Kalashnikov but I reckon he’s probably JLT bound. I’m not a fan of Melon and I reckon Samcro goes up in trip. Paloma Blue will surely lack the class of the others anyway.

I quite like If The Cap Fits since his bumper Days and was gutted he missed the shore this year as was on at 20s. I reckon he’s a fair bet here but he isn’t yet priced up.

Laurina at 14/1 is a big price too. 8s and 10s elsewhere.

We Have A Dream 25s could be big too. Though triumph hurdle winners have a terrible record in the next years Festival I believe.

No bet antepost for me yet though. This, like the majority of Novice chase races, is hard to play antepost until we know who’s staying over hurdles. The summer months tend to slowly give info on who’s staying at which discipline.
 
I'm pretty sure that i read a quote from the Trainer of kalashnikov , saying she thought he'd need to go up in trip ,
Thinking like a few here . I have already backed for the J.l.t chase . - 25-1.
 
I think they'll take in a nice easy JLT for samcro rather than sticking him in a grueling RSA with the likes of Santini and co.

Melon i'd be surprised if he went chasing after his fantastic effort in the champion hurdle, and contray to what Robbie Power said after the race i thought he was going well at Punchestown before falling.

The horse i'd have a slight interest in would be Bapaume. He would of had a similar sort of prep as footpad over hurdles, just hanging out the back of races and trying to pick up the pieces not really ridden to win.

Arkle always looks tough this far out.
 
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