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Arkle 2018
- Thread starter Welshman
- Start date
Brain Power will win comfortably today I’m sure, but even if he pings every fence I’d need to see him run well at Cheltenham before I’d consider backing him for any race there. Beaten 49 lengths in his two starts at the track, which is well below his level of form anywhere else. If I were connections I’d find send him to Cheltenham for festival trials day and if he is again soundly beaten target him at Aintree instead
Heh should win this easily today. I wouldn't personally be all about him wanting a flat track, his 1st run was a seasonal appearance in a strong handicap his 2nd a monstrous leap up in grade, where imo he was to keen.
Could well be the case though but I will give him the benefit of the doubt for now. One things for sure he won't be 20/1 after this race. A henderson horse the year after altior winning following the same arkle path he sends his best chance every year. Sure to be some followers.
Had to get him in my book at 20s personally.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Have only invested small in him on the exchanges, he makes up none of the main bets for the festival though. I just think he lacks plenty at the very top level, a good, solid horse in his own right but not up there with the best for me. Of course, time will tell and these comments may look rather foolish, given that he hasn't even jumped a fence yet, but the raw talent for me is not up there with the best of them, and a couple of horses would have to not participate in the race first before he was of major interest.
He's not my main bet and can agree with alot of what you said, I'd give him a chance and he's the one who's going to shorten the most. If I diddnt back him now as a cover at 20s I never will. And im pretty deep into the ones at the forefront of the market from an early stage. So I can allow myself to back brain power at this stage being the only danger I can forsee.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
I agree his price will only shorten from now, and you know his target is confirmed, but I can't have every horse in every race covered (i definitely could!) and he's one i'm happy to let go. He was well beaten by North Hill Harvey first time up at Cheltenham last year, having won first time out the previous year, just think it may be the track that doesn't suit. Would be surprised if the winner of the Arkle was any horse other than Finian's Oscar, Footpad or Petit Mouchoir, but still early in the season and a lot can happen
Didn't realise there was still a little bit of 20s so I've taken that as he'll be shortening but I was reluctant and I'll 99% be laying off for my stake back closer to the time as I can't get enthused at all ....
Too much credit is given to a champion hurdle run IMO.... it was a weak champion all season and bar the winner ... they all got beat by MTOY, who is solid and likeable but no star.
Anyway, that said ... Im on.
Too much credit is given to a champion hurdle run IMO.... it was a weak champion all season and bar the winner ... they all got beat by MTOY, who is solid and likeable but no star.
Anyway, that said ... Im on.
Finians Oscar 20/1 1pt 16/1 0.5 pts
any race 8/1 4pts
Sceau royal 33/1 1pt
Petit mouchoir any race 12/1 2pts 10/1any race 4pts
Brain power 20/1 1.5pts
Footpad 16/1 any race* 6pts 33s arkle 1pt
River wylde 25/1 1pt
Chacun pour soi 25/1 70.0 1pt
Northill Harvey 33/1 1pt 16/1 1pt
Think I have backed them all lol.
any race 8/1 4pts
Sceau royal 33/1 1pt
Petit mouchoir any race 12/1 2pts 10/1any race 4pts
Brain power 20/1 1.5pts
Footpad 16/1 any race* 6pts 33s arkle 1pt
River wylde 25/1 1pt
Chacun pour soi 25/1 70.0 1pt
Northill Harvey 33/1 1pt 16/1 1pt
Think I have backed them all lol.
That is a smashing book for this race! I personally have only got involved with FO and Petit Mouchoir. Missed the boat on Footpads price, but you're looking in good shape! Well played.
That's so similar to mine, even the stakes haha, but switched stakes on FO than footpad... I've got 10pts at 16s FO and only 1 at 25s Footpad and 1 pt any race 16s.
And add Shantou Flyer :very_drunk:
Prefer yours at the moment ever so slightly but I'm not going to get off the FO bandwagon
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Alot can happen between now and then but touch wood brain power wins today and we should be both be able to sit back relax and watch the race unfold. Hopefully petit mouchoir makes it to the arkle trial in feb as if one of the 2 wins easy the other could well step up and go for the jlt, it's all possible.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Fair effort on chase debut, makes me nervous and indeed looked as though David Mullins was nervous too the way he took some of them, but hard not to be impressed.
Pretty smart from Henderson sending him to Kempton though, clearly he knows the horse is fresh and very keen, what better way to start than on a nice flat track. Be a different story as season progresses I'm sure of that.
As impressive as could be that from Brain Power. Next assignment will dictate whether I get involved in him or not, would love to see him left handed somewhere on an undulating track. Taking the risk of missing a decent price on him just because of doubts about liking a flat track and that he's now 5/8 going right handed, 0/4 going left handed. He's quite keen but has a high cruising speed and from the front on a track like Kempton he looks a world beater. Hope for those that have backed is that Sprinter Sacre didn't have the best novice hurdle form, was a little keen in his early days, and was always thought of as a chaser (all apply to Brain Power). Fences settled him down a little bit and you could make a case that it will be the same for Brain Power
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2nd fav now, bigger days down the line but he could do no more than what he did today. Makes sense why he works with altior and they decided to give him another season over hurdles with already obviously having altior for the race.
Onwards and upwards
Couldn't help but be impressed with that from Brain Power, got in a little close at a few but when he met them on a good stride he was awesome. I've added a couple of pts at 12/1 alongside Petite Mouchoir and Footpad. Unless something spectacular comes out of the woodwork thats me done with the Arkle, bar topping up on either of those three.
Thought the Arkle was a dead race this time last month, really starting to heat up now.
Thought the Arkle was a dead race this time last month, really starting to heat up now.
Chacun Pour Soi is one I'm interested in seeing actually, so unless he impresses on debut thats me about finished.
KingSprinterSacre
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Without a doubt that was a nice performance. But id have to see him going left handed/a trial at Cheltenham before I could consider backing him for the arkle