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Arkle 2018
- Thread starter Welshman
- Start date
BigChaang
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Nice picture of Colin Tizzard Kev, My computer has no sound and i can't lipread , but anyway , I have been chipping away with
F.O for a while now , In the Arkle on YOUR recommendation . L.O.L. ! and yes double figures !.
F.O for a while now , In the Arkle on YOUR recommendation . L.O.L. ! and yes double figures !.
Faugheen_Machine
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Thanks for sharing Kev, that has made my day.
I was listening to a podcast last week (can't remember which one) and they were adamant FO wouldn't go here and totally dismissed him as an Arkle runner. Thankfully CT, more likely Alan Potts, is thinking along the same lines as us.
I was listening to a podcast last week (can't remember which one) and they were adamant FO wouldn't go here and totally dismissed him as an Arkle runner. Thankfully CT, more likely Alan Potts, is thinking along the same lines as us.
Hurricane fly
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Faugheen_Machine
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When Thomas Hobson wins the Melbourne cup I’ll get involved
You don't have long to wait then HF:encouragement:
They'd be better off with us on the podcast 
I watched it a few times and think that's conclusive evidence that he is coming here.
Is anyone else of a differing opinion because I could do with a differing opinion to balance it out :triumphant:
I watched it a few times and think that's conclusive evidence that he is coming here.
Is anyone else of a differing opinion because I could do with a differing opinion to balance it out :triumphant:
billymag
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Wish you guys the best of luck with Thomas Hobson but i cant think a European horse to win the race who didnt have a prep in Australia, it seems to make the task so much harder and the draw is going to be tricky to overcome, id love to see him do it for you though. Best of luck.
Un de sceaux 1.15
And Thomas Hobson
ew double.
Diddnt expect to see them 2 in flemington
Yeah today, racing post website. Tizzard gives any update on thistlecrack, native river, fox Norton and Finian's. (He talks about fix Norton going 2m CC too rather than Ryanair)
Having nailed my colours to the mast regarding Finian's Oscar's(151) target being the ARKLE, I thought I better start thinking about his chances of winning it! I thought it'd be a good place to start looking at last seasons novice hurdlers as historically they have a good record particularly in this race (admittedly I haven't had time to actual check this recently, but I am pretty sure it rings true) ... anyway....
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/w...ce-Juvenile-Hurdle-Classification-2016-17.pdf
Now looking at the 2m to 2m2.5f horses last year, moving down we have Labaik(161), DDS(157) (hurdles), Cilaos(153)(hurdles), Melon(152)(hurdles), Bapaume(151)(don't know?), Mega Fortune(151), Master Blueyes(150)(Don't know), Pingshou(150)(hurdles) ...
Skip a few, Ballyandy(147),Movewiththetimes(146). Now we've seen both of these so far and although they weren't bad, I don't think either have screamed Arkle winner, in fact both look like a step up would do them good.
Moving on to the 2m3f+ novices from last season and fortuantely we have more that are going chasing... starting with Presenting Percy(157) and West Approach(157). Both excellent and 0% they'll be at 2 miles - which is a comment I'd be confident in saying about the next few Champange Classic(153), Penhill(153), Bacardys(151), Willoughby Court(150), The Worlds End(149), Monalee(149), Tin Soldier(149), Gayebury(148), Death Duty(147) ... Captain Forez(148) and Neon wolf(150) would have been interesting. The one I jumped over was Finian's Oscar(151), and although I do honestly feel he'd be better over the intermediate distance, he is the only horse rated 145+ last season as a novice that I can even contemplate having the class to win this race.
Obviously horses can improve and I expect some to make a mockery of their novice hurdle ratings (like Shantou Rock has?!) but the base figure that Finian's Oscar has in hand over ANY of these novices at this trip makes him a much shorter shot than the 14/1 still available for me. Bleu Berry (143), River Wylde (144) probably the closest actual ones you can start making a case for? Possibly William Henry(145).
Plenty of people don't like (and statistically are right) horses that have had more than one season over hurdles for this race, and although that certainly wouldn't make me put a line through anything, it would be a consideration.
To sum up, I now believe 100% if sound, this will be the race Finian's Oscar runs in, regardless of his winter campaign and I have no fear from any of the novice hurdlers last season in terms of this race. I believe Finian's Oscar would have put up a bigger novice hurdle performance/rating last season than he had chance to do, by missing the Cheltenham Festival too. I think the price his is, hasn't factored in the comments from Colin Tizzard and although the 16s have now gone, and Sky have ducked to 11/1, that still under-estimated where this horse will be in the market on the day. Until I see a performance that makes me really sit up and take note from out of the blue, I am very happy to sit in this position.
12 pts - WIN at 16/1
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/w...ce-Juvenile-Hurdle-Classification-2016-17.pdf
Now looking at the 2m to 2m2.5f horses last year, moving down we have Labaik(161), DDS(157) (hurdles), Cilaos(153)(hurdles), Melon(152)(hurdles), Bapaume(151)(don't know?), Mega Fortune(151), Master Blueyes(150)(Don't know), Pingshou(150)(hurdles) ...
Skip a few, Ballyandy(147),Movewiththetimes(146). Now we've seen both of these so far and although they weren't bad, I don't think either have screamed Arkle winner, in fact both look like a step up would do them good.
Moving on to the 2m3f+ novices from last season and fortuantely we have more that are going chasing... starting with Presenting Percy(157) and West Approach(157). Both excellent and 0% they'll be at 2 miles - which is a comment I'd be confident in saying about the next few Champange Classic(153), Penhill(153), Bacardys(151), Willoughby Court(150), The Worlds End(149), Monalee(149), Tin Soldier(149), Gayebury(148), Death Duty(147) ... Captain Forez(148) and Neon wolf(150) would have been interesting. The one I jumped over was Finian's Oscar(151), and although I do honestly feel he'd be better over the intermediate distance, he is the only horse rated 145+ last season as a novice that I can even contemplate having the class to win this race.
Obviously horses can improve and I expect some to make a mockery of their novice hurdle ratings (like Shantou Rock has?!) but the base figure that Finian's Oscar has in hand over ANY of these novices at this trip makes him a much shorter shot than the 14/1 still available for me. Bleu Berry (143), River Wylde (144) probably the closest actual ones you can start making a case for? Possibly William Henry(145).
Plenty of people don't like (and statistically are right) horses that have had more than one season over hurdles for this race, and although that certainly wouldn't make me put a line through anything, it would be a consideration.
To sum up, I now believe 100% if sound, this will be the race Finian's Oscar runs in, regardless of his winter campaign and I have no fear from any of the novice hurdlers last season in terms of this race. I believe Finian's Oscar would have put up a bigger novice hurdle performance/rating last season than he had chance to do, by missing the Cheltenham Festival too. I think the price his is, hasn't factored in the comments from Colin Tizzard and although the 16s have now gone, and Sky have ducked to 11/1, that still under-estimated where this horse will be in the market on the day. Until I see a performance that makes me really sit up and take note from out of the blue, I am very happy to sit in this position.
12 pts - WIN at 16/1
Last edited:
BigChaang
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When Thomas Hobson wins the Melbourne cup I’ll get involved
I'm going to reinvest my Melbourne cup winnings :very_drunk
n F.O !!is that not over 2m 4?
Finians Oscars Sire doesn't have a great record over 2 miles at the festival. Much Better over 2 mile 4.
JackieMoon33
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Big Zeb won and was placed in the QMCC.
Rock On Ruby won and was placed in the Champion Hurdle.
At Cheltenham (the course not festival)
2 miles (ish)
4 wins from 78 runners
2 mile 4 (ish)
10 wins from 50 runners
Interesting, and fits the run style and visual impression for Finian's Oscar... but I don't think that'll change where he ends up and although 4 from 78 isn't a huge percentage, Finian's Oscar looks a cut above any other novice that'll be in this race IMO