April ‘25 Yankee

[The Giant Bolster]

I've backed JdV for the Stayers. There's obvious risk. I suspect they will school him over fences in October/November and then decide. So the bet now is that schooling won't go great. I suspect he's not a natural chaser but have cash out in case.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I think the plan will be next year's Grand National for Myretown and he will be the first horse I will back.

142 wouldn't get him in the National so he'll need to not only move up the handicap but prove that 15lb rise was fair.
A word of caution, he has hit the deck three times in his life, I know the course has changed and it's far more about stamina than jumping these days but 3 x Fs won't sit well with trends...

 

[YoungHustler]

142 wouldn't get him in the National so he'll need to not only move up the handicap but prove that 15lb rise was fair.
A word of caution, he has hit the deck three times in his life, I know the course has changed and it's far more about stamina than jumping these days but 3 x Fs won't sit well with trends...

You could almost run through a National fence these days and not fall. Yep, the race has completely changed and it's one I now target with a mini book approach from a year out as prices are available.

 

[EnvoiAlien]

I'd nominate Galopin De Champs at 8/1 with 365 for the Gold Cup, could see early on he wasn't letting himself down on that ground at Cheltenham (Only ran on going described as good twice in his career,lost them both), If the grounds a bit softer next season I expect he'd go a lot closer to getting that 3rd GC win, of course the only issue is if he runs at Punchestown his price might be even bigger by May as he doesn't seem to like it there in the springtime, I've taken a little at 8/1 as for me, thats a fair price.

 

[JackieMoon33]

I’d be against GDC regaining his crown next season, bar injuries to his successor. He’s only likely to regress a little if anything next season. You’d be relying on the ground for him to reverse the form and that the winner would be inconvenienced by it (I’m sure he would be). The second season crew probably won’t be that strong which will help GDC to still hit the frame, but I can’t see him winning.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I wouldn't be backing inothewayurthinkin at the moment myself

We've seen over and over again that the gold cup leaves a mark on horses Neither Indo or A Plus Tard were the same again as recent examples. I'd need to see him do it again as that was a huge career best.

There have only been 2 multiple winners since kauto in al boum and GDC

A plus tard absolutely hacked up but was never the same again, same with Indo really.

Native river didn't win a race the season after or another grade 1

I just wouldn't be a rush to back him especially as he is growing a langer dan type of profile I.E being a lot better in the spring. Whether it was by design with a view to the national weights is up for debate. So theres every probability that GDC beats him around leopardstown in the savills or Irish gold cup.

My strategy atm is going to be to back GDC after he loses in the durkan

Then play it by ear on Iknowthewayurthinkin with a mind on how hard it is to win two

Given how awful this seasons BANC was one of those will win if turning up as they are miles better than everything else.

With correct timing could easily get 12s+ on GDC and 8s+ on inothewayurthinkin I reckon

 

[CJW]

Fact to file Champion Chase?

Speaking at Limerick on Sunday, the owner’s racing manager Frank Berry said: “Obviously Inothewayurthinkin isn’t going to Liverpool (Aintree), so it’ll be either Punchestown or pull up. He’ll want safe ground and again, ground depending, Fact To File will also go to Punchestown.
“It’s up in the air but Fact To File has the two-mile and the three-mile options. It depends if the other fella (Inothewayurthinkin) runs but Fact To File could well go back to two miles.
“Dinoblue will probably again tog out in the Champion Chase, so there is every chance, if the ground is OK, that the three will run in Punchestown.”​

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Fact to file Champion Chase?

Speaking at Limerick on Sunday, the owner’s racing manager Frank Berry said: “Obviously Inothewayurthinkin isn’t going to Liverpool (Aintree), so it’ll be either Punchestown or pull up. He’ll want safe ground and again, ground depending, Fact To File will also go to Punchestown.
“It’s up in the air but Fact To File has the two-mile and the three-mile options. It depends if the other fella (Inothewayurthinkin) runs but Fact To File could well go back to two miles.
“Dinoblue will probably again tog out in the Champion Chase, so there is every chance, if the ground is OK, that the three will run in Punchestown.”​

I'd only back him if declared

Personally I don't think they should run Inothewayurthinkin (we really need to come up with an acronym for him)

Give him every chance to recover from that monster run no need to go to the well again with a view to retaining his crown

 

[ComplyOrDie]

142 wouldn't get him in the National so he'll need to not only move up the handicap but prove that 15lb rise was fair.
A word of caution, he has hit the deck three times in his life, I know the course has changed and it's far more about stamina than jumping these days but 3 x Fs won't sit well with trends...

I suspect he'll do a Corach and go back for the Ultima first, although they have hugely differing running styles. I don't think 15lbs will stop him though, to be honest, and that's before they get him down a few lbs pre festival.

On better ground he's a serious play for the race again.

Not overly convinced he's a national type, myself, but reckon they'll play the national plan all season for him to then rock up in the Ultima and win it.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I suspect he'll do a Corach and go back for the Ultima first, although they have hugely differing running styles. I don't think 15lbs will stop him though, to be honest, and that's before they get him down a few lbs pre festival.

On better ground he's a serious play for the race again.

Not overly convinced he's a national type, myself, but reckon they'll play the national plan all season for him to then rock up in the Ultima and win it.

I was intrigued by the suggestion of being a Gold Cup horse, you feel they'll target another Ultima before tackling top graded races ?
So a two year plan ?
I’ll avoid the obvious jokes.
If they make him a National horse then he’ll need to be winning race(s) next season so you may be right, a plan that would mirror Corach - I think Lucinda mentioned that he was getting for a year behind where they wanted so that would make sense…

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I was intrigued by the suggestion of being a Gold Cup horse, you feel they'll target another Ultima before tackling top graded races ?
So a two year plan ?
I’ll avoid the obvious jokes.
If they make him a National horse then he’ll need to be winning race(s) next season so you may be right, a plan that would mirror Corach - I think Lucinda mentioned that he was getting for a year behind where they wanted so that would make sense…

Yes, they might use the Gold Cup talk as a route back to the Ultima, give him a try against graded animals, get beat etc... mark dropped, win the Ultima. Slightly different to the Corach route.

But I wouldn't believe a word any of them say. I'm pretty sure one of them (Scu or Lucinda) said they may skip the festival with Corach and go straight to the National, but obviously they didn't and he won prior to winning the GN.

They may genuinely believe Myretown is a graded horse but he's only won a handicap off 127, not as if he was high 140's, although he probably could have won it off such a mark, just not as impressively, but even so it's a massive step up for him.

Just for comparison, Chianti Classico won the Ultima off a 16lb higher mark last season than Myretown, he stepped up to G1 company at Aintree and was readily beat. He did win another G3 handicap this season but I think it's a push to believe a horse like him could be a G1 animal. I would say the same of Myretown, and this coming from someone who is a huge fan of the horse.

It will be interesting to see how he gets on at Aintree, I assume they will turn up for the Mildmay. If it's a small field and he gets off on the front end he could obvious run the race to suit and get away from them.

 

[Eggs]

….after an enjoyable (but unprofitable for me) few days at Aintree, it’s time to get back on track and resurrect this. Taking Aintree into account, I have a few suggestions.

First of all Wodhooh for Mares Hurdle at a best price 6-1. I picked up on the Faugheen_Machine and IstabraqBarRegular discussion and they are both keen to get her in their book, I agree and think now’s the time. Other suggestion to follow.

By the way, I’m not being knocked down in the rush with a volunteer Captain this month.

 

[BigChaang]

I will put up Lecky Watson - Gold Cup @ 33-1 . Won the brown's convincingly. ..
On the basis of Liking previous Festival Winners and Placed Horses , for the Following year .
............................................................................
And I will happily be the Volunteer Captain This Month Egg's . , If there's no other Takers .. :encouragement: .

 

[Eggs]

I will put up Lecky Watson - Gold Cup @ 33-1 . Won the brown's convincingly. ..
On the basis of Liking previous Festival Winners and Placed Horses , for the Following year .
.................................................. ..........................
And I will happily be the Volunteer Captain This Month Egg's . , If there's no other Takers .. :encouragement: .

….cheers, Matey. April ‘Big Chang’ Yankee has a good ring to it. This month’s is yours, it’s up to you how you manage it.

 

[Eggs]

….i have another strong recommendation, largely based on AaronLad excellent ‘Saxon-like’ Aintree analysis. He posted this about the handicap hurdle;

’2mile 4 furlong handicap hurdle.

2024: Jango baie 2nd / won arkle @5/1 (2)

2023; Buddy one 2nd / 4th stayers @40/1 (2)

2022: langer dan won / won coral cup @9/1 (2)

2021: 3rd edwardstone / won arkle @5/2
4th mister coffey / 2nd NHC @5/1 (4)

3 winners and 1 place from 10 runners.
30% win rate is impressive.
2 arkle winners from 2 arkle runners also something worth bearing in mind.
This is a race to definitely be keeping placed horses in your mind for the following cheltenham.

Kopeck de mee - Arkle

I think he's 100% a better horse than what he showed at cheltenham, but the task he was handed on british debut was much too tough.
Having watched the interview with Charlie swann prior to the cheltenham festival it was made clear he was bought as an arkle horse but had met with a slight setback/hold up which meant they'd wait for the next season to go chasing.
why would that plan be any different now?
with the recent exceptional record from the above race for the arkle, if he was to run a good race, maybe even winning i think his price of 50/1 for next years arkle will take a severe hair cut.
It's also encouraging his dam sire creachadoir was sire of Footpad who was of course an arkle winner for willie mullins.​‘


Well, Kopeck de Mee’s performance in coming 2nd fits nicely in with Aaron’s pre-race analysis for Arkle. He’s also a bit of a forum horse given darlojim highlighting him for a Festival Handicap. Mullins suggested this week that he’s one to keep onboard and I think he’s a very strong contender for BigChaang to consider this month.

The 50-1 has gone but Kopeck de Mee 33-1 is available and he might just be the Mullins ‘Kopek’ Arkle horse.

 

[Captain Chris]

Some careful race planning and I can imagine Kopeck going into the novice handicap off a mark in the low 140s. Not Mullins style, but certainly JPs! Mullins can pretty much run his own Arkle by the looks of it: Kopek des bordes, Karniquet, Salvatore Mundi... So he's not short of options.

 

[BigChaang]

I am thinking , for the April Yankee , I might have the 1000 or 2000 Guineas as the first leg ..,, any Thought's / preferences .. ? likes / dislikes /.??.
Something Different , and new. ??.

 

[Eggs]

I am thinking , for the April Yankee , I might have the 1000 or 2000 Guineas as the first leg ..,, any Thought's / preferences .. ? likes / dislikes /.??.
Something Different , and new. ??.

….i’d have no idea on that front but presume you have so see what others think.

The other thing to keep an eye on this month is Punchestown Festival running from 29th Apr - 3rd May. Obviously it could help inform some May selections, especially using Saxon Warrior Race Planner but there might be a few suggestions ahead of the meeting before they get a haircut.

The timing of that could also influence when you want to put the bet up.

i’ve put up 4 this month and actually put them in a ‘free’ Yankee this morning from BFSB after failing with a £5 multiple yesterday :topsy_turvy:

Wodhooh MH 6-1
Kopeck de Mee Ark 33-1
Derryhassen Paddy BANC 25-1
JDV Stay 14-1

I’d be happy with any of these making it into Chaang’s 4.

 

[Irish Rugby]

Rocky's Diamond for the Stayers but there's been no word yet whether he goes chasing or remains over hurdles. Trainer says they will go to Punchestown after bypassing Aintree.

It's becoming a division that's not very deep and they're all beating each other.

Rocky's the new kid on the block. Maybe a consideration next month if we don't want to risk it just yet.

 

[somer1]

I am thinking , for the April Yankee , I might have the 1000 or 2000 Guineas as the first leg ..,, any Thought's / preferences .. ? likes / dislikes /.??.
Something Different , and new. ??.

Like that alot.