Ante Post for National Hunt 2021-2022 Season

[Pendil]

One that catches my eye is Llandinabo Lad who looks well handicapped.
He finished 2nd beaten 2 3/4l over cd last December by My Drogo who was getting 5lb. Soaring Glory getting 5lb was 3 1/4l further back in 3rd and No Ordinary Joe getting 5lb another 4 3/4l behind in 4th. he ran 2 stinkers after that and had his wind done for a 2nd time during the Summer.

His comeback run and first handicap run initially looks disappointing, beaten 9l by an 11yo, but that horse Hunters Call finished a 1l 3rd in the G2 International at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Tom Symonds could be in better form but Song for Someone ran on (eventually) to finish 2nd in The International.

16/1 boosted to 18/1 with Lads

 

[jack1092]

Bit of a quick turnaround, Benson would interest me. That run at Ascot last season is strong form.

Calvin has tipped him up....

 

[Benjy23]

One that catches my eye is Llandinabo Lad who looks well handicapped.
He finished 2nd beaten 2 3/4l over cd last December by My Drogo who was getting 5lb. Soaring Glory getting 5lb was 3 1/4l further back in 3rd and No Ordinary Joe getting 5lb another 4 3/4l behind in 4th. he ran 2 stinkers after that and had his wind done for a 2nd time during the Summer.

His comeback run and first handicap run initially looks disappointing, beaten 9l by an 11yo, but that horse Hunters Call finished a 1l 3rd in the G2 International at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Tom Symonds could be in better form but Song for Someone ran on (eventually) to finish 2nd in The International.

16/1 boosted to 18/1 with Lads

Interesting shout this. That C&D run does look very good now doesn't it. As you've said well beaten twice after but jockey reported stopping quickly both times and wind operations suggest there was something amiss.

That last run isn't too bad either. FTO over a trip that was potentially a bit too far. She's kicked on very early as well... interesting that he led as well though, given my early comments about pace.

​​​​

 

[FredFlintstone]

New to the fatjockey forum.

PP have taken the position that Bob Olinger is unlikely to run in Ascot on Friday, I would have thought there is a good possibility he could run Friday.

Rachael would surly want to be ridding him in his next start having missed his beginners, she is likely to go to Kempton on the 26th.
If they do get a run into him on Friday they would have the option the go for the graded race in Punchestown.
The ground at limerick can be bottomless over Christmas.

I think with the possibility, slim it might be that Bob Olinger does not run on the 26th there could be value with some of the other horses entered PP have priced in the market. If he is not declared on Wednesday morning you will still have the option to cash out.

 

[Lobos]

With doubts over Buzz staying, questions over Thyme Hill after his French trip, Chump......say no more, imo Ronald Pump looks an EW snip at 7/1 in the Long Walk Hurdle. He deserves a big one after running really well against Honeysuckle twice.

 

[Zachx02]

With doubts over Buzz staying, questions over Thyme Hill after his French trip, Chump......say no more, imo Ronald Pump looks an EW snip at 7/1 in the Long Walk Hurdle. He deserves a big one after running really well against Honeysuckle twice.

7/1 feels far too big in my opinion for him

 

[That Horse]

7/1 feels far too big in my opinion for him

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

​​​​​​Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers:glee and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.​​​​​

 

[Zachx02]

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

​​​​​​Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers:glee and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.​​​​​

Not so sure on the Buzz point, he looks good but I'm not so sure he wins if he stays. Thyme Hill still the best horse in the race in my opinion but that France run might have taken something out of him

 

[Benjy23]

If this isn't won by Buzz or Thyme Hill it'll be a hugely disappointing race, as a Grade 1 and with a view to the Stayers. Appreciate neither are great prices but they're the two I'd like to see battling out the finish for the sport/festival, rather than my bank balance. Can also see they both come with dangers but they're the only potential stars in the field aren't they.

I backed Ronald Pump e/w for the Stayers antepost last year so I may still be a bit annoyed about that but he doesn't do much winning does he? Can see the each way angle and usually runs well but hasn't won for over 2 years (9 races).


​​​​​TD and PP have each beaten each other once this season, and PP has carried a penalty both times - which he won't here. Can see why they're similarly priced to each other. PP surely past his Grade 1 winning days. And TD would need be the above three not to run to their best.

 

[That Horse]

Not so sure on the Buzz point, he looks good but I'm not so sure he wins if he stays. Thyme Hill still the best horse in the race in my opinion but that France run might have taken something out of him

Fair point re Thyme Hill being best horse, it's that France race that puts me right off.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

​​​​​​Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers:glee and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.​​​​​

Thomas Darby has had his day id say

He finds little to nothing for pressure and id be thinking he only won because the race fell apart and the other horses were absolutely legless

Personally I'm hoping we see thyme hill put the race in France behind him

At double the price of buzz I'm tempted

Then there is champ, probably the best of these ability wise but god knows how hes going to run

Wouldnt be surprised if he won easily, wouldn't be surprised if he came last

 

[Benjy23]

Watched the Greatwood a few times now and I still can't decide between West Cork and No Ordinary Joe. There's a lot to like about both of there runnings there.

Feel sure we'll get a better pace on Sunday as Onemorefortheroad, Global Citizen, Llandinabo Lad and Goshen all like to be on or close to the pace. Although the latter two probably prefer softer ground and Goshen is a head case so anything could happen. Hopefully they all turn up and run their races though. Could make a reasonable case for three of them individually but if all running they could well set if up for something from further off the pace.

Nicholls is a bit of an unknown. He's got two impressive wins with a poor run inbetween. Not sure what the excuse for that was? Not my sort of bet but enough to put me off backing others in the race in singles.

I can't really narrow it down enough to have a proper bet. So I think I'm going to play the Greatwood form in forecast and tricasts for a bit of interest. No Ordinary Joe, West Cork & Tritonic...

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Mack the man 25s e/w for me

Gets in off a very low weight

Has some back form that makes him look exceptionally well handicapped

He beat lightly squeeze who was running off 109 and is now 137

He then beat protektorat who was off 128 and song for someone off 147

They tried chasing last year and it just didn’t work out

Drifted like a barge from 2/1 to 13/2 on reappearance and is so well handicapped he won anyway

I’m convinced he has a good few lbs in hand

I’m hoping this has been the plan for a while

 

[TiggerRoll]

Top Ville Ben for Rowland Meyrick at anything double figures looks a steal. Won the race at a canter two years ago at 3/1f from 4lbs higher but was forced in to graded company as a result. Kirby loves a Boxing Day gamble and Dowson jocked up, looks too obvious.

He did have a hard enough fall at Aintree but got up and galloped away quickly and have to trust he wouldn’t be here if there wasn’t an issue. These fences are easy, tracks suits his prominent style and any amount of rain won’t be an issue.

Only 19 at 5 day stage, 8 last year, 10 year before, then 8, 8, 10, 11, 8, 7 so you get the picture in terms of how much it’s likely to cut up.

 

[Cashew King]

Top Ville Ben for Rowland Meyrick at anything double figures looks a steal. Won the race at a canter two years ago at 3/1f from 4lbs higher but was forced in to graded company as a result. Kirby loves a Boxing Day gamble and Dowson jocked up, looks too obvious.

He did have a hard enough fall at Aintree but got up and galloped away quickly and have to trust he wouldn’t be here if there wasn’t an issue. These fences are easy, tracks suits his prominent style and any amount of rain won’t be an issue.

Only 19 at 5 day stage, 8 last year, 10 year before, then 8, 8, 10, 11, 8, 7 so you get the picture in terms of how much it’s likely to cut up.

A bid for a second victory in the Rowland Meyrick is next on the agenda for Top Ville Ben after returning home none the worse from his fall in Saturday's Becher Chase at Aintree.

Phil Kirby's charge appeared to have taken well to the famous fences on Merseyside before coming to grief at the 12th obstacle.

Having emerged unscathed, the nine-year-old will now be prepared for Wetherby's Grade Three feature on Boxing Day, which he won in 2019.

Kirby said: "Top Ville is absolutely fine. He was loving it until he came down, but he's capable of doing something stupid like that!

"He'll probably go to the Rowland Meyrick again and we'll see where we go from there."

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Has anyone got any interest in Rames de Teille in the Welsh National ?
Have to say I couldn't believe it when I realised he was only 9 so although he looks to have been regressing it was only a year ago he won a valuable chase at Cheltenham when rated 149, his poor efforts since have seen him tumble to 146 when not always getting his ground.
There looks to be some 20/1 around which I can't get but I'd like to think someone else will be around that mark and maybe with some extra places too...

 

[Benjy23]

What is his ground in your opinion? Seems to have good and bad runs on a mix of grounds.

Had a look through and struggled to like anything much as a bet to be honest.

Would be nice to see Native River win it again but would be some effort off 166.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

What is his ground in your opinion? Seems to have good and bad runs on a mix of grounds.

Had a look through and struggled to like anything much as a bet to be honest.

Would be nice to see Native River win it again but would be some effort off 166.

Is that a response to my post ?
He's always a horse I thought needed deep ground but maybe that's because his better performances seemed to come in big TV races when soft/heavy, but he has some solid form on slightly quicker ground, that said my confidence will increase when I see the rain falling over the weekend.
He looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper for me...

 

[Benjy23]

Is that a response to my post ?
He's always a horse I thought needed deep ground but maybe that's because his better performances seemed to come in big TV races when soft/heavy, but he has some solid form on slightly quicker ground, that said my confidence will increase when I see the rain falling over the weekend.
He looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper for me...

Aye, sorry should have quoted. Fair play, hope it rains for you! Definitely well in on old form isn't he. As you initially mentioned, question of if he's regressing is the issue with that. His form in the race last year is a bit of a concern but he went well in the race couple of years before didn't he. Think he's just a bit in and out in general mind I think. Hopefully on a going day. GL

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Aye, sorry should have quoted. Fair play, hope it rains for you! Definitely well in on old form isn't he. As you initially mentioned, question of if he's regressing is the issue with that. His form in the race last year is a bit of a concern but he went well in the race couple of years before didn't he. Think he's just a bit in and out in general mind I think. Hopefully on a going day. GL

I think I’d convinced myself he was regressing sharply but that Cheltenham win a year ago showed he still has something about him, could be a genius Pipe plot but I’m not sure this generation of Pipe is that capable…