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Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

The only horse we can consider currently for collateral form between ND and Samcro is Jetz. Over the same trip and ground Samcro beat him 12 lengths, ND beat him 7 and a quarter lengths. Samcro's win over Jetz was also far more visually impressive, he was hardly touched. Jetz reopposes of course on Sunday so can assess proximity to ND again
 
Scooby91 said:
If they win this (big if) why would they be scared to take on samcro? they've done far more than him.

Very unlikely samcro makes any difference to mullins plans he's had and taken on plenty of horses of samcros stature
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But you and I both subscribe to the PP theory and they seem to think he's AB bound no?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
But you and I both subscribe to the PP theory and they seem to think he's AB bound no?
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That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.
 
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All depends who he beats into 2nd and 3rd and distances as to whether i'd upgrade him or not. He's already beaten Cracking Smart comfortably, so presumably the only horse we can judge him against (looking at the odds) is Speak Easy? Impossible to judge that one's form to date really as he's unraced at this trip
 
Scooby91 said:
That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.
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I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.
 
Scooby91 said:
That isn't my only consideration. I wouldn't want to lay him for the Albert Bartlett. But if he wins this there's no way id want to lay him for the ballymore
If it was nrnb I make him a 11/2 6/1 for the ballymore. If he wins this by a couple of lengths of make him a 9/4 shot for the ballymore. The only reason samcro is so short is weight of public money not because of form.

ND is by no means a 1/2 shot in this race. I'd have to upgrade him considerably for winning this.
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What do you know of Duc Des Genievres?
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.
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The way i see his pp price is anything but a victory he would go bartlett. You have yo take into account his chances of winning this race. Ofcourse you'd want to lay him right now as a bookmaker for the ballymore because it's a very deep race there's every chance for something to put it up to him as you have them all there to beat.
If he wins this well that's a whole different matter. Within a couple of days id expect them to go top price the Albert bartlett. With him booking his place as the one going into the ballymore with the best form in the book.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I agree with all of that.

But I'm talking more about the relative chances of him running in either race, rather than his relative chances of winning either. I will fancy him wherever he goes. Clearly he will shorten for both if he wins this impressively, as he should, as it will represent a good step up and his best form yet.

But will they want to give him the best chance of winning at the Festival, which is definitely the AB, or take on this race? I still think ND and Getabird are his two best and will be split up and of these two, ND looks like he would stay the 3m better.
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As bumper horses Getabird was preferred (shorter in the betting for the Cheltenham race). Do you think that was a true reflection or will the fact Getabird was a Ricci horse have skewed it slightly?

ND looked to have improved on his bumper form though.
 
Kevloaf said:
As bumper horses Getabird was preferred (shorter in the betting for the Cheltenham race). Do you think that was a true reflection or will the fact Getabird was a Ricci horse have skewed it slightly?

ND looked to have improved on his bumper form though.
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Ive no idea tbh Kev. We can only guess. But as we know Ruby will want to ride the 3 best novices in the 3 novice races...
 
Robbante said:
What do you know of Duc Des Genievres?
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Not much tbh,
his French novice hurdle (in may) was full of newcomers he obviously won that. Nothing much has ran since that got near him. They say they like him and he works well.... complete guess from my end. Wouldn't expect him to win, But wouldn't be a huge shock.
 
Scooby91 said:
The way i see his pp price is anything but a victory he would go bartlett. You have yo take into account his chances of winning this race. Ofcourse you'd want to lay him right now as a bookmaker for the ballymore because it's a very deep race there's every chance for something to put it up to him as you have them all there to beat.
If he wins this well that's a whole different matter. Within a couple of days id expect them to go top price the Albert bartlett. With him booking his place as the one going into the ballymore with the best form in the book.
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But as we stand he already has the best form in the book for the Ballymore to my eyes. He should be fav for the race already to me, if this is indeed his preferred target.
 
Scooby91 said:
Not much tbh,
his French novice hurdle (in may) was full of newcomers he obviously won that. Nothing much has ran since that got near him. They say they like him and he works well.... complete guess from my end. Wouldn't expect him to win, But wouldn't be a huge shock.
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Cheers, bow to your knowledge on the french scene
 
Can't Catch Me said:
But as we stand he already has the best form in the book for the Ballymore to my eyes. He should be fav for the race already to me, if this is indeed his preferred target.
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You may be correct. But weight of money is what makes the books. And samcro gas been hyped up from a long way out. Backed it up in what races he was sent to, whether thats top form or not compared to this race you can interptet yourself. But money continued to pour in. They have to run for cover .

Would be very strange to have samcro shorter than ND should he win here. But if they pushed samcro out public money would come regardless. Such as the media... And deal that has been made about his victories.

He has the potential to be very good Samcro he could win, and he's done everything well I can't knock him. But he's not that price on form and potential alone.
 
Been digging a little deeper into Blow By Blow's form this season and I don't have him a huge way behind the principles at all for the race on Sunday. I've backed him so maybe i'm seeing what I want to see, but if he's come on a little again for his last run, and if this could be his optimum trip, then I don't think he's a forlorn hope for the places
 
Scooby91 said:
You may be correct. But weight of money is what makes the books. And samcro gas been hyped up from a long way out. Backed it up in what races he was sent to, whether thats top form or not compared to this race you can interptet yourself. But money continued to pour in. They have to run for cover .

Would be very strange to have samcro shorter than ND should he win here. But if they pushed samcro out public money would come regardless. Such as the media... And deal that has been made about his victories.

He has the potential to be very good Samcro he could win, and he's done everything well I can't knock him. But he's not that price on form and potential alone.
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Of course. I meant should be fav on form alone. Obviously its huge volumes of money that are responsible for his price.

Im just struggling to work out what they are thinking with ND. PP have a history of getting it right with regards to targets... they were shortest on him for the Ballymore initially, then made a big move on making him shortest for the AB after his last run. You said yourself you thought the AB was definitely the target on the back of that. I know I did.

Maybe they've just no idea this time as not even the yard have a clear idea yet... and are strictly changing odds due to bets placed, but its not normally that straight forward with them.
 
Ive most of my money on ND any race, but if they are thinking Ballymore, I think the current 10/1 is absolutely huge. He's already a 5/1 poke on what he's achieved in my eyes, and as you say, will be nearer 3/1 if he wins this and we know thats his target.
 
Who does everyone think will be Willie's first pick in each race come March... who will Ruby ride?

I think:

Supreme - Sharjah
Ballymore - Getabird
AB - Next Destination
 
Robbante said:
Bottom two liable to switch dependent on performance Sunday
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Yeah that's my worry too, definitely looks possible.... and Getabird is a 3m winning pointer. But if ND wins well on Sunday and looks their star novice would they run him in the hotter race and Getabird in the 3 miler and potentially win neither?! I suppose if ND does win well on Sunday they could then run Getabird in a 3m hurdle and then decide.

I'm honestly not sure even Willie has the answers yet.

Really tempted with the 10/1 about ND for the Ballymore, I must say.
 
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