• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 2018

luisgarciaisgod said:
I've been pretty defiant about Cracking Smart winning this ever since Next Destination beat him in The Lalors Oil at Naas. People have gone into overdrive after Paul Kealy's comments last night but it's uncanny how Cracking Smart's running style reminds me of Bobs Worth, another one who went into this wthout a massive amount of experience (5 runs). The way he has to be somehwhat cajoled midway through the race and coming on strongly at the finish reminds me so much of BW also. Still remain happy with my choice.
Click to expand...

I was too LGIG especially after Next Destination defected to the Ballymore. But WMullins must think that Duc D Genievres has improved for the run behind Cracking Smart and since behind Samcro. They both have about the same chance I now think. On that basis Im now looking further afield.
 
I think Fabulous Saga should run flat out in a soft ground Supreme Hd. perfect race conditions.
 
Fabulous Saga may well be the wrong horse, his odds suggest this is the case, but Kealy's comments last night were eye opening for me.
I'll get this wrong but he said something like in the last 10 years there have been 6 non finishers in the Supreme, 11 in the Ballymore and 62 in the potato race, confirming that the race is often full of non stayers, so I've certainly changed my approach on the race this year....
 
I found that interesting when Kealy said that, too.


Last 10 years

12 in Supreme
14 in Ballymore
62 in Albert Bartlett

I've got CS & ND from ages ago, and Calett Mad any race.

Just going to take my medicine if none of those win.
 
Bigfish said:
I was too LGIG especially after Next Destination defected to the Ballymore. But WMullins must think that Duc D Genievres has improved for the run behind Cracking Smart and since behind Samcro. They both have about the same chance I now think. On that basis Im now looking further afield.
Click to expand...

Lookng back on his two runs it almost feels to me that DDG is going for the AB in hope rather then expectation. Cracking Smart and Next Destination were both running on from DDG over 2m4 but he was running on behind Samcro over 2m. Getabird is obviously WPM's Supreme horse and i think ND might struggle over 3m so DDG goes there by default.
 
Fancy chef des obeaux or santini for this. Cdo has 3mile form and santini has the look of future star so maybe split stakes on these two. Will prices shorten once next destination scratched from the race
 
Trickytrickster said:
Fancy chef des obeaux or santini for this. Cdo has 3mile form and santini has the look of future star so maybe split stakes on these two. Will prices shorten once next destination scratched from the race
Click to expand...

at least a point I would say.
 
I still don't think Dus Des Genievres runs here.

Fabulous Saga and Chef Des Obeaux wouldn't be going elsewhere and both deserve a go.

I won't be backing DDG if he does come here... would need to be a megastar to win it and clearly isn't as he's been beaten on his two runs so far.

I think the fact he's been "eye-catching" is being over played in terms of a group 1 race.... he's only eye-catching in terms of a handicap surely? As he is not as good as the horses that've beat him.

I imagine the arguement will be "look at the horses that did beat him.... Samcro and Next Destination".... which is probably fair... maybe I should back him :highly_amused:
 
Do you think it’s nailed on Next Dest goes Ballymore? Or is it Mullins mind games?
 
Another horse to bring up if we went solely on the basis that the more runs the better for any horse in this race then surely Poetic Rhythm must go with a chance, currently a 16/1 shot?

He has run in 10 races under rules, 14 including his PTP races, 1 less than Calett Mad overall.

He spent last season chasing the shadows of the likes of Pingshou, Coo Star Sivola, Wholestone & Willoughby Court (in the Neptune, so has raced at the festival before).

Despite winning only twice this season his overall profile and form (including last season) has a really solid feel about it.

Just to run through some of the the form, his run in the Neptune last season can be excused for sure, he was badly hampered at the same time as Bacardys, probably more so than Barcardys was too, and from that moment on was never a threat, at a trip I feel was probably too short, Barcardys obviously now runs in the Stayers' whilst PR can run in this having not won any of the fairly hot races he ran in last season. This season is another story though, winning 2 and coming 3rd of his 3 starts so far, his wins being at trips still probably too short IMO, but still managing to grind them out, all 3 races contested this season have been graded races, and have pretty much produced winners from all of them. His defeat by On The Blind Side at Cheltenham in November is really good form, given OTBS is now joint 2nd fav for the Ballymore, and much is expected of him. Within that race PR still finished 24 3/4 lengths ahead of none other than Callett Mad!! In the race description PR was described as 'not pace of winner closing stages' which is hardly surprising given OTBS's turn of foot, but more so that PR should not be a 2m 4f horse.

On ratings, PR has just 2lb's to find with Santini & Chef Des Obeaux, but finds himself on the same rating as Cracking Smart (on his Irish rating) and is 3lb ahead of Duc Des Genievres, yet his price is a lot more generous that the aforementioned horses.

There is every chance, in fact, IMO, it's guaranteed, that this step up to 3m will mean he improves beyond his current rating of 148, that said I also think Santini will improve for the step up in trip too, but PR has the experience and the battling qualities to see this out better IMO.

Anyway, that's my case for PR, for a race I don't have anything significant in just yet, as it looks as though Next Destination will not be running in it anymore.
 
Value gone now mate. Might just use the cash out as bullets for other bets
 
Solid argument CorD, that isn't one that escaped my attention but to have had 10 visits to a racecourse and never gone further than 21f I am assuming FOB doesn't see him as a 3m horse or he would have tried him already ?
Guaranteed stamina is my new approach to this and by that I need to see at least 2 x 3m runs in the book without looking a non stayer....
 
Istabraq said:
Solid argument CorD, that isn't one that escaped my attention but to have had 10 visits to a racecourse and never gone further than 21f I am assuming FOB doesn't see him as a 3m horse or he would have tried him already ?
Guaranteed stamina is my new approach to this and by that I need to see at least 2 x 3m runs in the book without looking a non stayer....
Click to expand...

I must admit, the lack of a 3m run had me perplexed too that he had been entered in this race, but maybe there is a reason....we will see at the festival, but have added him to my book tonight :)
 
ComplyOrDie said:
I must admit, the lack of a 3m run had me perplexed too that he had been entered in this race, but maybe there is a reason....we will see at the festival, but have added him to my book tonight :)
Click to expand...

This has been his target all season ever since the Persian war.
 
Scooby91 said:
This has been his target all season ever since the Persian war.
Click to expand...

On breeding I can't see him having a problem staying the trip tbh, it's just always nice to know prior to the race!
 
I’ve got a bit on Poetic Rhythm too at 33s from earlier in the season. The reason I backed it earlier is you always find 1 race a season where the form turns out to be ‘golden’ and it’s worth not just following the winner but the beaten horses too - as they’re almost under-rated for being beaten. For me that ‘golden’ race was at Cheltenham in November & it’s stood me in good stead so far.

1st On The Blind Side (IRE) 11-0 Nico de Boinville N J Henderson 5 9/2
Tracked leaders, ridden after 2 out, chased front pair towards stands side before last, switched left flat, led and stayed on well closing stages opened 3/1 touched 9/2
2nd 2½ Momella (IRE) 10-7 Harry Skelton D Skelton 5 7/1
Tracked leaders, led narrowly between last 2, ridden after last, kept on until headed and not pace of winner closing stages opened 7/1 touched 15/2
3rd nse Poetic Rhythm (IRE) 11-5 P J Brennan F M O'Brien 6 9/2
Tracked leader, led narrowly 4 out, headed narrowly last, ridden and every chance flat, kept on, not pace of winner closing stages opened 11/2 touched 11/2
4th 22 Vision Des Flos (FR) 11-0 B J Cooper C L Tizzard 4 3/1
Held up behind, headway to track leaders 3 out, soon outpaced, well beaten after next opened 7/2 touched 4/1
5th 2¾ Calett Mad (FR) 11-0 D A Jacob N A Twiston-Davies 5 7/4f
Led, headed narrowly 4 out, driven and lost place after 2 out, soon ridden and weakened opened 2/1 touched 2/1

Long may it continue!
 
Interesting points on Poetic Rhythm CorD and CK. I have 1 pt e/w at 28/1 shortly after that 3rd to OTBS. You are right that the form does look good, as Momella(2nd), Vision Des Flos(4th) and Calett Mad(5th) all have won at least once since.

I read this thread last night and checked his price and thought 16/1 was too short to back at the current price though... just because I think it isn't an "each way" kind of race, as there are loads who you can give place claims too...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom