• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Albert Bartlett 2020

DenmanSacre said:
Has so many trends to break to win this.

If he goes here, I think that says more for what Willie and/or JP think they've got for the County.
Click to expand...


Hi Denman, not sure Janidil has that many trends to break if you look at Gaultstats headlines for the AB:

1: 12 of 15 1st or 2nd last time out in graded class - Janidil won £54k Grade A handicap at Fairyhouse on his last start.

2.12 of last 14 winners aged 6 or 7. Janidil is 6.

3. 8 of last 10 rated 140+. Janidil rated 149 by British handicapper.

4. Minella Indo only winner having less than 3 runs over hurdles. Janidil's had 7.

5.6 of last 7 winners started hurdling over 2miles. Janidil's first race was over 2m 1/2furlong at Auteuil last March.

6. No winner with an sp under 11-1 since 2014. Janidil still widely available at 33-1.

Janidil doesn't hit the Gaultstats target on the following:

1. Seven winners of the Group 2 over 2m5f at Cheltenham in January have run in the AB with 3 winning and 2 placed.

2. Willie's poor record in the race - Penhill his only winners from 35 runners.

3. Seven of the last 15 winners were previous victors on the course - 6 had never been to Cheltenham. This will be Janidil's first time on the track.

4. Only 1 French bred in last 14 winners. Janidil has a French dam.


Denman, I admit I'm speaking through my pocket in talking up Janidil.

The biggest minus to my mind is that the furthest he's ever run is 2m2f at Auteuil in September 2018 (2nd of 16 at 51-1, beaten 2 lengths in a £38k race). So will he get the AB trip?

Also in the minus zone, he hasn't raced since December 1 which I don't like - buy hey we're talking about WM here, he knows better than anyone how to prepare them for the big day.

And if you watch his 3 runs for WM this season Janidil always finishes his races strongly. I'm convinced he'll be covered up and produced after the last...ie given a typical Ruby ride!

This was what Willie said at his open day: "Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him."

I'll be there to cheer him on, assuming he shows up - and if he finishes last? Well, I was wrong again - but it's been great fun trying to solve the puzzle.
 
The trends I was looking at were:

Last 15 winners won or placed in a graded novice hurdle
6/7 and 9/15 won over 3m under rules - of the 6 that hadn't won over 3m, 2 had won a 3m PTP
14/15 had ran in a graded hurdle last time, with only Unowhatimeanharry running in a handicap before.

He's a left field selection for me in this, as I quite fancied him to run a big race in the County Hurdle.

As you say though, Willie knows best!
 
DenmanSacre said:
Has so many trends to break to win this.

If he goes here, I think that says more for what Willie and/or JP think they've got for the County.
Click to expand...

Massive Smoke Screen - Janidil is their County horse. No need for them to go on about the AB anymore - they have 149 which is around 6lbs better than they were hoping for. 3 miles - my arse!
 
delsie777 said:
Massive Smoke Screen - Janidil is their County horse. No need for them to go on about the AB anymore - they have 149 which is around 6lbs better than they were hoping for. 3 miles - my arse!
Click to expand...

Wait Delsie, you think they were hoping he'd have gotten 155?
 
I'd agree almost no chance that Janidil comes here but I'd slightly favour the Coral over the County if I didn't have him in the any race market.
 
delsie777 said:
Massive Smoke Screen - Janidil is their County horse. No need for them to go on about the AB anymore - they have 149 which is around 6lbs better than they were hoping for. 3 miles - my arse!
Click to expand...

So if Janidil is their County horse where does that leave Ciel De Neige and Aramon (who is also on 149)? I just don't see Janidil as a good thing carrying 11st 5lb minimum in the County.

I agree with Archie that the Coral would be a better bet but at 11st 4lbs he's still too near the top of the handicap for my liking.

The facts - whether you believe them or not - are that Willie has hinted that the AB would be his preference and now David Casey has mentioned him for this race at a preview night. It's also the case that JP doesn't have another runner in the AB.

We shall see....
 
nortonscoin200 said:
So if Janidil is their County horse where does that leave Ciel De Neige and Aramon (who is also on 149)? I just don't see Janidil as a good thing carrying 11st 5lb minimum in the County.

I agree with Archie that the Coral would be a better bet but at 11st 4lbs he's still too near the top of the handicap for my liking.

The facts - whether you believe them or not - are that Willie has hinted that the AB would be his preference and now David Casey has mentioned him for this race at a preview night. It's also the case that JP doesn't have another runner in the AB.

We shall see....
Click to expand...

aramon is not owned by jp so not relevant.
 
Run Wild Fred is still massive value at 33/1 NRNB in this.

Massively impressed with him LTO.
 
DenmanSacre said:
Run Wild Fred is still massive value at 33/1 NRNB in this.

Massively impressed with him LTO.
Click to expand...

Yeah I added him last night while going through my diary... was surprised he was that big!
 
I was thinking of cashing Fred out ?? , as i have Fury road , who Gordon Elliott mentioned.
and Cobblers way , How many do you think giggi will run in this. ??.
 
BigChaang said:
I was thinking of cashing Fred out ?? , as i have Fury road , who Gordon Elliott mentioned.
and Cobblers way , How many do you think giggi will run in this. ??.
Click to expand...

Gigginstown have no issue at all running their horses against each other...

There was an interesting table somebody posted last year that usually Gordon/Giggi only have one per race...


Surely you are NRNB though, no need to cash Run Wild Fred out?
 
I'm not sure kev, :confused:, did the bet the day he won recently.
will have to check when they went n.r.n.b.
 
Got on Run Wild Fred e/w @ 66/1 right after he put Lord Royal away. Did post it on here was available for a little while after that race. But still hoping Latest Exhibition does the business :encouragement:
 
I’ve got enough already in this race (Latest Exhibition, RDT, Thyme Hill, Harry Senior and the Cashel Man) with no current cash out options but still don’t think I’ve got the winner from previous trends and stats for this race. I played my hand too early in this race I think.
 
Not cashing Fred out as it was only a small bet but I do have a few larger bets on bet365, any idea if they have a cut off date for cashing out / partial cash out ?. Or does this option remain open until the race starts ?.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom