2027 The Prices on Offer

[Lobos]

Race form were very much of the view that he is not a 2 miler in the Arkle comments. With another year under his belt sure the Ryanair is the obvious target given his age.

Possibly. Could come down to the ground conditions. If it came up a deep Festival then CC might be ideal.

 

[Lobos]

Me West Country Cousin. Dont be a fool. Lulamba Ryanair (bit of a stayer) just like me,Ask Mrs lobos

I'm definitely more of a minimum distance type

 

[darlojim]

Race form were very much of the view that he is not a 2 miler in the Arkle comments. With another year under his belt sure the Ryanair is the obvious target given his age.

Trainer and jockey have said he's not a 2miler

 

[Kauto’s star]

I've had a couple of quid on him for the gold cup and was contemplating covering him for the ryanair, as well.

My concern is that he won’t be Paul’s ride in the gold cup if he goes. Plenty of good jocks about, but Patrick could be on board. If so won’t be shorter than 6 or 7 to one on the day. Now the 20s seems to have gone, may have to leave it for now. For all he was great in the BA

 

[kinloch brae]

For the reasons you give I think it's a very strange choice, particularly to make it so early. Top three in the Supreme, and none seemingly interested in what could be another weak Champion Hurdle. It would have made far more sense to take in a 'trial' and then decide a plan. Imagine if he bolted up in a Fighting Fifth? All that said, and I know he eventually changed his mind about Kabral Du Mathan, I don't get the impression that Skelton is someone who finds it easy to change his mind. I think the price for the Arkle is even worse than it was for the Supreme. Had he targeted the Champion Hurdle it wouldn't have surprised had he been near enough favourite for that as well.

How things change.

 

[Lobos]

20/1 gone on F2F Gold Cup with PP. Into 16/1 3rd fav now. 20's still dangling with Unibet.

 

[Ellisgittings]

20/1 gone on F2F Gold Cup with PP. Into 16/1 3rd fav now. 20's still dangling with Unibet.

He'll be 10 - happy to swerve at those prices

 

[BuckingThe Trend]

He ain't winning a Gold Cup at 10. Simples.

 

[Danman]

He'll be 10 - happy to swerve at those prices

I always discount the 10 year old and above horses in a gold cup, as a starting point.

 

[Lobos]

Dangerous. Very, very lightly raced 10yo though. Gaelic has had 7 more runs than him....

 

[Cheltenham Novice Chase]

Dangerous. Very, very lightly raced 10yo though. Gaelic has had 7 more runs than him....

I’m not sure the volume of races is that relevant in terms of a horses physiology. My understanding is that, in general, horses peak at 8 and then start to regress, Sure, you still get plenty of 9 year old Gold Cup winners because we’re often talking about g about top classes horses regressing and of courses horses are born at different times throughout the year and all develop and regress uniquely but I’m yet to see any data which suggests more lightly raced horses regress less than more heavily raced horses.

 

[Exar Essay]

Dangerous. Very, very lightly raced 10yo though. Gaelic has had 7 more runs than him....

Can’t think of many 175 rated horses running in their first GC at 10. I think I’d make an exception on that basis. I hope he heads that way.

 

[Lobos]

I assume everyone has ruled F2F out of next years Ryanair as well as don't think many 10 year olds have won that either ?

 

[That Horse]

I assume everyone has ruled F2F out of next years Ryanair as well as don't think many 10 year olds have won that either ?

If it's good ground, JP won't run him

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I assume everyone has ruled F2F out of next years Ryanair as well as don't think many 10 year olds have won that either ?

3 in the past 22 runnings, as opposed to 0 from the past 22 Gold Cups.

FWIW I don't dislike him for the Gold Cup, I just like to, annoyingly for some, check these things when questions like the above are noted.

 

[Danman]

I assume everyone has ruled F2F out of next years Ryanair as well as don't think many 10 year olds have won that either ?

I tend to rule out all 10 and above year olds from the big races, it could come back to bite me but it's my starting point.

 

[Benjy23]

Three of the last four Stayers hurdle winners have been 10 or over...

I wouldn't have it as a hard rule for any race but I certainly wouldn't have it as one for all races.

Fact to File got enough about him to not be that tempting as an antepost bet mind.

 

[Exar Essay]

Three of the last four Stayers hurdle winners have been 10 or over...

I wouldn't have it as a hard rule for any race but I certainly wouldn't have it as one for all races.

Fact to File got enough about him to not be that tempting as an antepost bet mind.

And the the last 10yo+ winner before that was in 1986. Which shows that you can't wholly rely on the age stat. In 2023 we were all ruling out stayers hurdle horses on the basis of their age. We're doing the same now with GC horses as there hasn't been one in so long. But if the best 3m chaser around is a 10yo, it'd be foolish to rule him out on age, in my opinion.

 

[archie]

The best 3m chaser around will probably win either the KG or the Savills but the extra 2f makes a huge difference in March. If they were ever going to run FtF in the Gold Cup it would have been this year.

 

[Lobos]

11 Ten year Olds have won the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the last being Cool Ground in 1998. As it happens, Cool Ground was the last 10 year old I backed for the race so going by that, F2F will win next year.....