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2027 The Prices on Offer

CJW said:
What are people's opinions on Fact To File? Ryanair best priced 6/1, 10 year old next year but not supplemented for the gold cup this year, do we think he'll go next year?

6/1 for the Ryanair looks big if he lines up, weather permitting aswell to take into account. It does have the look of a potentially a great race but just wanted to see if anyone has any strong views on his target?

That being said, he'll have two options next year and can easily back for both at the current odds.
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I've steamed in to both prices. 6/1 Ryanair and 20/1 GC. I thin both are excellent prices.

10 year olds don't tend to win Gold Cups. But not many 175 rated chasers have their first try at 10 years old. He's beaten the GC winner on the bridle over 3-miles.

I also think this years GC would really have suited him i.e. one where the classiest horse came to the fore. It wasn't very attritional (and the ground was ideal).

I think this years novices are better than last years, but I'm not convinced there's anything better than Gaelic Warrior in there. FTF could, therefore, be his main rival.

I can't see him taking a different route to the festival this year either. Maybe the Savills rather than the King George, but he'll still be campaigned as a 3-miler.

On that basis, I think 20/1 about the GC is great value.

But if he failed at 3-miles, or they felt he didn't get the extended 3m2f, then the 6/1 looks a gift for the Ryanair.

If you split your stakes, you're getting 17/4 for him to win either race. Which seems very fair. He's one I've been happy to bet for both races, and is a must for any book.
 
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I reckon there's a good chance Townend gets a good one in the Ryanair.

He'll almost certainly stick with Gaelic in the Gold Cup now. Which gives him Kitzbuhel and Final Demand as novices that you'd expect would be Gold Cup bound but Townend may fancy convincing them to go down in trip.

Then in the Champion Chase he's got the choice of sticking with Il Etait Temps or Kopek Des Bordes and sending the other up in trip. IET has already won over 2m 5f so might be the more obvious choice. Even if not defending his Champion Chase may seen a bit off.

Puts me off playing Fact to File slightly. And the debacle of him being a NR this season after I'd got properly stuck in antepost puts me off even more
 
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They might try and turn final demand into a front running 2m4f horse

You do get the feeling they were never totally happy with him this season
 
Kitzbuhel just looks ready made for The Ryanair to me. Loves to bowl along and his jumping will get plenty in behind into trouble. He has both speed and stamina and the New course over the mid trip looks perfect.
 
Lobos said:
Kitzbuhel just looks ready made for The Ryanair to me. Loves to bowl along and his jumping will get plenty in behind into trouble. He has both speed and stamina and the New course over the mid trip looks perfect.
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I've had a couple of quid on him for the gold cup and was contemplating covering him for the ryanair, as well.
 
Danman said:
I've had a couple of quid on him for the gold cup and was contemplating covering him for the ryanair, as well.
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I would Imagine the Gold Cup would be the target for him after his BANC performance. For me it’s not in doubt, it certainly shouldn’t be imo.
I guess if you really like him you could cover though.
 
Lobos said:
Kitzbuhel just looks ready made for The Ryanair to me. Loves to bowl along and his jumping will get plenty in behind into trouble. He has both speed and stamina and the New course over the mid trip looks perfect.
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Time figure for the RSA wasn't great, FWIW. But the form will get a boost in 3 weeks round Aintree anyway
 
Anyone thinking about backing Kitzbuhel need to consider where Lulamba ends up. The Donnellys aren't adverse to running them in the same race but you would have to think there is a strong chance they will split the two if they both make it to the Festival. Personally I think that given Lulamba will only be a 6yo next year connections might run him in the Ryanair before stepping up to try the Gold Cup trip the following year.
 
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Koktail Divin be one down in trip for next year imo, travelled like the wrath of god into the RSA. But Heart Wood still old enough to go again imo
 
Halffat1 said:
Anyone thinking about backing Kitzbuhel need to consider where Lulamba ends up. The Donnellys aren't adverse to running them in the same race but you would have to think there is a strong chance they will split the two if they both make it to the Festival. Personally I think that given Lulamba will only be a 6yo next year connections might run him in the Ryanair before stepping up to try the Gold Cup trip the following year.
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Good point. Personally think they'll start down the Champion Chase route as Nicky doesn't have another for that does he ? Lulamba certainly didn't look out of place over 2m in the Arkle and on pretty quick ground.
 
EnvoiAlien said:
Don't see that happening at all, all season Nicky was pointing out the horse wanted further as was Nico.
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Arkle didn't suggest that though imo. Without the mistake, he may well have won. Identical mistake to Kopek.
Hendo wouldn't be without a runner in the CC.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
You mean like this seasons race?
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Well, yeah, but he would probably have had Bonjovi in there if it were his choice wouldn't he?

Just seen Lulambas price for the CC. Ummmm......tempted
 
Lobos said:
Good point. Personally think they'll start down the Champion Chase route as Nicky doesn't have another for that does he ? Lulamba certainly didn't look out of place over 2m in the Arkle and on pretty quick ground.
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Race form were very much of the view that he is not a 2 miler in the Arkle comments. With another year under his belt sure the Ryanair is the obvious target given his age.
 
Anyone else looking at Baron Noir as an Arkle prospect or is it just me ?
Didn't settle until they jumped the 4th in the SNH then coming down the hill he latched onto Mydaddypaddy to follow him through, off the bend though the front three quickened whereas he lengthened which is probably why theres been no talking of staying over hurdles with him.
Built for chasing & Alan King is well capable when he gets a fair animal, I think the 33/1 is a fair price as I'd expect improvement for a fence and he isn't from a fancy stable...if you only got into NH racing in the last 20 years that is otherwise we all know about Barbury Castle :D

I swore I wouldn't mention any more AP horses as well, fuck it, I'm adding him to the portfolio.
 
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