2026 Ryanair Chase

[Runragged]

Fact To File looked to not put it all in the last day against Gaelic Warrior,watching it I F2F had him covered coming to the last then curled up a little imo, today he looked to not be over that run at all, was being niggled along when they'd barely gone a mile, a good break now might be required as he does seem to come alive at Cheltenham, I'd be looking to get him there fresh as fcuk although I would also want to check all is 100% with his wind. just in case,better to check it now than find a problem later.

Could also be the ground. Track records set in both Christmas Hurdle and the King George suggests the going was fast. Like I said before, he never really looked comfortable throughout.

 

[jrjr]

Reckon today’s race might push most of its main protagonists toward the Gold Cup. If so, would leave the Ryanair looking v thin on the ground with a defending champion soundly beaten today.

Clinging to the hope my Impaire et Passe tickets could still rise from the ashes..

 

[EnvoiAlien]

Indeed, he's never ran on lively ground, I thought he had without looking through his form tbh,something else for me to consider.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I think the form is smelly.
I can’t get out of my head how they were all still in a bunch turning for home and then 4 in a line at the post.
Will await the time guys analysis but for now it stinks to me.

I agree about the “all in a bunch turning for home” Q as it normally indicates a slow race until that point…….will be interesting to hear what the time analysis indicates….please share when available

However where I am at the moment is that they broke the track record, so surely that means they have run pretty fast from the home turn to the line and logically cant have been going that slow, or as slow as we think, up until turning for home?

If it was sprint from turning for home then why couldn’t Djelo or FTF go with the front four all the way to the line?

If Master Chewy was in the mix then I’d agree that the from could well be suspect, however the right horses rating wise finished up front, apart from FTF, so I remain optimistic that on this occasion the race was a fair one and we have two top notch 3m chasers in Britain to look forward to over the next couple of seasons

 

[Quevega]

I agree about the “all in a bunch turning for home” Q as it normally indicates a slow race until that point…….will be interesting to hear what the time analysis indicates….please share when available

However where I am at the moment is that they broke the track record, so surely that means they have run pretty fast from the home turn to the line and logically cant have been going that slow, or as slow as we think, up until turning for home?

If it was sprint from turning for home then why couldn’t Djelo or FTF go with the front four all the way to the line?

If Master Chewy was in the mix then I’d agree that the from could well be suspect, however the right horses rating wise finished up front, apart from FTF, so I remain optimistic that on this occasion the race was a fair one and we have two top notch 3m chasers in Britain to look forward to over the next couple of seasons

Yeah
The track record thing seems really strange.
I cannot think for a minute that those four and those in the Christmas hurdle are all world beaters
The ground being on the very good side explains some of it but something is not right to me.
Like they’ve not measured it right. It’s happened before now

 

[Wayward Lad]

Yeah
The track record thing seems really strange.
I cannot think for a minute that those four and those in the Christmas hurdle are all world beaters
The ground being on the very good side explains some of it but something is not right to me.
Like they’ve not measured it right. It’s happened before now

You could well be right about the measurement, as that would explain what our eyes saw, a slowish run race until the home turn and then a prolonged sprint up the straight

I was gob smacked when the news came about the track record being broken

 

[Lobos]

I think the form is smelly.
I can’t get out of my head how they were all still in a bunch turning for home and then 4 in a line at the post.
Will await the time guys analysis but for now it stinks to me.

Not sure smelly is the right word as it was a brilliant race but sort of know what you are saying. Run it 10 times and we get several different results.

 

[Kauto’s star]

I think the form is smelly.
I can’t get out of my head how they were all still in a bunch turning for home and then 4 in a line at the post.
Will await the time guys analysis but for now it stinks to me.

Smelly may be a tad harsh, but defo right on how the race was run. The fact djelo made a move round the final bend says it all, but still think the cream rose to the top. How the form reads for the GC, now that’s a solid debate.

 

[Quevega]

Yeah
I mean the form of course.
I said earlier it was a great race
But I don’t trust the form especially with a view to Cheltenham.
I think it’s hard to make a case for example that jukebox has now shown he has an excellent chance in the gold cup.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

No one dreams of owning a Ryanair winner,infact people dont even care about Ryanair winners, not a hope in hell they'll not take their chance at the biggest prize in NH racing over a race that's not even the biggest race on a Thursday in March.

Whilst you are probably right about dreaming,I’m not sure you are about caring about winning EA, Ricci certainly seemed happy with Vautour winning the race instead of going for gold.

We can all have our views and opinions but when it comes to the crunch time it’s going to be very interesting how the decision makers feel about it all.

Personally I’d like to see both Jango and Jukebox in the Gold Cup, in fact any horse that looks like could possibly go Gold Cup go for it.
If that leaves FTF with a virtual walkover then so be it.
At least those that took 4/1 would be very happy

 

[Runragged]

Attheraces has all the sectional speeds. The race had a finishing speed of 111.66%. Judging by these sectionals they went a steady, not slow gallop, but got racing 4f from home. Of the finishers all barring Master Chewy ran the 4f-2f in less than 26 seconds. Trying to compare it with last year where Il Est Fraincais went very fast early, slowed down then went quick again before then racing from 6f out. The race was poorly run from an efficiency point of view which is why Banbridge won last year having raced the most efficiently. Track records can be misleading as it's not as though they race on this fast a ground at this standard very often.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I thought the plan this season was get him to the King George and they hadn't thought much beyond that, was this Ryanair talk from a stable tour or something else ?

The plan was the King George, so anything beyond that is a bonus, right? That was his Gold Cup today whereas, maybe Banbridge aside, the others will likely be brought on for the Spring, IMO.

I'm putting a line through FTF's run. We all know he's better than that! I'm not saying it is what happened but I imagine JP wants a price for March, as 7/4 was plenty skinny for FTF, now he's a 4/1 poke, job done! Yeah, I don't trust any of them

 

[Lobos]

"After that we will be guided by what happens at Kempton Park. If he won the King George it would be hard not to go for the Gold Cup, but I’m also very tempted by coming back for the Ryanair trip this season as I genuinely think he is a speedy horse.

“It might be that the Gold Cup might be more his thing later on. He doesn’t need three and a quarter miles yet, though he would probably get it.”

Could go either way ??

 

[Quevega]

Attheraces has all the sectional speeds. The race had a finishing speed of 111.66%. Judging by these sectionals they went a steady, not slow gallop, but got racing 4f from home. Of the finishers all barring Master Chewy ran the 4f-2f in less than 26 seconds. Trying to compare it with last year where Il Est Fraincais went very fast early, slowed down then went quick again before then racing from 6f out. The race was poorly run from an efficiency point of view which is why Banbridge won last year having raced the most efficiently. Track records can be misleading as it's not as though they race on this fast a ground at this standard very often.

This makes some sense and can see how it could have happened
Although all those finishing that quick still seems suspect

 

[Exar Essay]

Using B365 as a guide (probably more accurate than odds checker who have some odd ones quoted) I’ve got the following as likely runners.

Fact To File - 4/1
Jonbon - 11/1 (16/1 at Hills)
Impaire et Passe - 20/1
Djelo - 33/1
Champ Kiely - 33/1
Spillanes Tower - 33/1
Gidleigh Park - 40/1
Protektorat - 40/1
Handstands - 50/1
Heart Wood - 50/1

I’ve got Gaelic, Jango, The Jukebox Man, Majborough, Grey Dawning, Il Etait Temps, and Banbridge all at 5/1 - 16/1 and having been quoted as going elsewhere. The others are surely not good enough.

Also, I’ve not heard how IEP is since his early season set back, and Spillanes is so out of form.

Now I’m sure some may reconsider or defect upon being beaten over their preferred distance or seeing the Ryanair open up; but on the above basis, last years 1 & 2 look absolutely massive at 4/1 and 50/1 respectively.

Romeo Coolio at 14/1 with others would also be very interesting.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Using B365 as a guide (probably more accurate than odds checker who have some odd ones quoted) I’ve got the following as likely runners.

Fact To File - 4/1
Jonbon - 11/1 (16/1 at Hills)
Impaire et Passe - 20/1
Djelo - 33/1
Champ Kiely - 33/1
Spillanes Tower - 33/1
Gidleigh Park - 40/1
Protektorat - 40/1
Handstands - 50/1
Heart Wood - 50/1

I’ve got Gaelic, Jango, The Jukebox Man, Majborough, Grey Dawning, Il Etait Temps, and Banbridge all at 5/1 - 16/1 and having been quoted as going elsewhere. The others are surely not good enough.

Also, I’ve not heard how IEP is since his early season set back, and Spillanes is so out of form.

Now I’m sure some may reconsider or defect upon being beaten over their preferred distance or seeing the Ryanair open up; but on the above basis, last years 1 & 2 look absolutely massive at 4/1 and 50/1 respectively.

Romeo Coolio at 14/1 with others would also be very interesting.

RE IEP then on Willies last Stable Tour he mentioned that “he had a feeling” that IEP may miss Cheltenham and go to Aintree, like he the year before

Thanks for the prompt re Heart Wood at 50/1 as its way to big…….10/1 to finish either second or third is a steal IMO

Hasn’t done much wrong this year, winning and then running down the field in the Durkan and at a time HDB wasn’t firing

 

[Benjy23]

Heart Wood should be winning that Tramore race on NYD when you take out all the Savills runners. Suspect they'll have a crack at the Irish Gold Cup after that and then make up their minds whether he's Gold Cup or Ryanair bound.

Couldn't knock it at 50s still to be fair. Each way there. And Fact to File win only. Not much else needed here!

 

[Lobos]

Fact To File has looked vulnerable in his 2 runs. Not quite at the levels he was last season.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Fact To File has looked vulnerable in his 2 runs. Not quite at the levels he was last season.

Slight concern that race with GW has left a mark?
Got to be a doubt with him now imo.

 

[Lobos]

Slight concern that race with GW has left a mark?
Got to be a doubt with him now imo.

On last season's form he'd have gone past Gaelic first time up imo. Could be a Spring horse though.