2026 Novice Hurdlers

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah the entry surprised me and had it bot been for Slade Steel running in that same Navan graded race I'd have thought it even stranger.
I'd only backed for the Bartlett along with flying king so no real idea what either trainer is playing at as both look like stayers.
although the turners for Deviluno I would not rule out completely.
He was mad prices on exchange half an hour or so anyway for supreme 400+ and turners 150+
So had a nibble.
Soft ground festival and you never know.

Would be a push, but with a little imagination both could still get the 5 runs prior to the festival, IF that is what they really wanted to do, and provided they come out of their races each time absolutely fine.

MF at the weekend then only two more prior to the festival, one maybe at the DRF, then one middle of Feb. Admittedly it wouldn't probably be ideal, with such a short break, but again, it would depend on how hard of a race they had each time and how they come out of the races.

 

[Craigy14]

Saint baco surely a backup entry in case Naas off again?

 

[Quevega]

Might be wrong but I think too much is being made of Saint Baco's entry here.
Be surprised if Willie left himself with just the one in the lawlors when they declare tomorrow.
Could do though, I suppose.
Wouldn't risk it myself.
The Mystical example is a very different scenario.

 

[Quevega]

Would be a push, but with a little imagination both could still get the 5 runs prior to the festival, IF that is what they really wanted to do, and provided they come out of their races each time absolutely fine.

MF at the weekend then only two more prior to the festival, one maybe at the DRF, then one middle of Feb. Admittedly it wouldn't probably be ideal, with such a short break, but again, it would depend on how hard of a race they had each time and how they come out of the races.

My theory with the flying King is that it's auto typed on every fucking entry.

 

[Craigy14]

Might be wrong but I think too much is being made of Saint Baco's entry here.
Be surprised if Willie left himself with just the one in the lawlors when they declare tomorrow.
Could do though, I suppose.
Wouldn't risk it myself.
The Mystical example is a very different scenario.

Completely agree Q. He was running 2 weekend gone so why would it change?

He’s entered 2 others in the Moscow (9 total) which Saint Baco wouldn’t be available for had the Lawlors been run last weekend anyway.

 

[riccirich]

My thinking as well with theflyingking, is the owners have been very clear that they view cheltenham as the Olympics and want all they're horses at it. So if theflyingkings target was the albert bartlett, as people are suggesting as his most likely target if not a handicap, then why would they keep running him over two miles? Surely not the usual preparation for a bartlett. So if the owners want him at the festival, and he's being ran over a trip short of what's considered his best, you'd assume it's because a handicap is the goal.

 

[Quevega]

My thinking as well with theflyingking, is the owners have been very clear that they view cheltenham as the Olympics and want all they're horses at it. So if theflyingkings target was the albert bartlett, as people are suggesting as his most likely target if not a handicap, then why would they keep running him over two miles? Surely not the usual preparation for a bartlett. So if the owners want him at the festival, and he's being ran over a trip short of what's considered his best, you'd assume it's because a handicap is the goal.

He hasn't kept running over 2 miles though has he ?
He's ran once.
Been entered umpteen times and not declared though
His first run when he fell at the last when looking like the winner and easily beating Kazansky was run over 2m 7f

 

[Quevega]

In fact if Kazansky runs friday he'll have had 4 runs already

 

[darlojim]

Don't see why not, if it's what they want. Gordon doesn't mind running horses with short breaks between runs if he wants to get them in a handicap, unlike willie. Think the cutoff for having enough runs is somewhere around 20th February?

In which case he could run in the Moscow flyer, three weeks later at the drf maybe, and then squeeze one more in one of those rated novice hurdles that he likes to use. Might be worrying having so many runs in quick succession before the festival, bit if he's not doing a trying at all in any of them then he'd still be fresh.

If they were aiming for the Pipe though, I'd have expected them have squeezed a run into him in December sometime, so that he could be fresher for the festival as if hcap was the case, he'd be having 4 runs in the space of 2 month.

 

[riccirich]

He hasn't kept running over 2 miles though has he ?
He's ran once.
Been entered umpteen times and not declared though
His first run when he fell at the last when looking like the winner and easily beating Kazansky was run over 2m 7f

Assuming he takes up one of his two entries, then in that case he has "kept running" over two miles

If he was thought of as a bartlett type, then I'd have thought a lawlors entry would make more sense than a Moscow flyer one?

The last bit furthers my point. He was going to be a good winner over 2m 7f looking good at the trip. So then why drop back to 2m next time out, and now look like running over 2m again at the weekend, unless theyre thinking handicaps.

 

[darlojim]

Saint baco surely a backup entry in case Naas off again?

If Naas is off again, will just be rescheduled again though won't it

They've obviously thought its a possibility, as they wouldn't have entered otherwise, like they haven't bothered with Sortudo.

 

[darlojim]

Might be wrong but I think too much is being made of Saint Baco's entry here.
Be surprised if Willie left himself with just the one in the lawlors when they declare tomorrow.
Could do though, I suppose.
Wouldn't risk it myself.
The Mystical example is a very different scenario.

Could well be for sure, but thought 6s in a race where IF he didn't get the dec tomorrow, he'd be a 10/11 shot I'd say

More likely wrong than right though, but was worth the risk

 

[Quevega]

Assuming he takes up one of his two entries, then in that case he has "kept running" over two miles

If he was thought of as a bartlett type, then I'd have thought a lawlors entry would make more sense than a Moscow flyer one?

The last bit furthers my point. He was going to be a good winner over 2m 7f looking good at the trip. So then why drop back to 2m next time out, and now look like running over 2m again at the weekend, unless theyre thinking handicaps.

If declared in the maiden Friday, which I expect.
Then I reckon he may be one Gordon sends to Dublin for the 2m 6f race.
See how he stacks up in that and then decide on Cheltenham.
But who knows.
Certainly don't think he lines up on the flyer.

Since the rules changes....
On the same point, I'll not be interested in many/any of the novices that have to rush through races to get into the handicaps.
I'd prefer looking elsewhere to last seasons juveniles or those that had runs behind them before the season began.

 

[Craigy14]

If Naas is off again, will just be rescheduled again though won't it

They've obviously thought its a possibility, as they wouldn't have entered otherwise, like they haven't bothered with Sortudo.

Maybe he’s bouncing around his box so if Naas was off again goes Moscow.

I’d put it 95% Lawlors 5% Moscow if both are on, never say never with WPM though.

The year mystical ran he had 4 other runners in the Lawlors.

 

[Quevega]

Could well be for sure, but thought 6s in a race where IF he didn't get the dec tomorrow, he'd be a 10/11 shot I'd say

More likely wrong than right though, but was worth the risk

can see the price attracting, as he'd be short if declared.

 

[riccirich]

If they were aiming for the Pipe though, I'd have expected them have squeezed a run into him in December sometime, so that he could be fresher for the festival as if hcap was the case, he'd be having 4 runs in the space of 2 month.

That could have been the plan. Possible he got a tiny knock that delayed him for a week or something. I'd be only guessing.

But if he takes up one of his two entries at the weekend over 2m, it would look a strange preparation for a bartlett, when there's plenty of races he could be running in over further if they wanted.

The gigginstown horse Harsh, just as he's an example from the pipe last year, ran on the 9th and 23rd of Feb before running in the pipe. He wasn't a main dart, but just shows he's not really as worried about spacing as much as someone like willie.

 

[Quevega]

That could have been the plan. Possible he got a tiny knock that delayed him for a week or something. I'd be only guessing.

But if he takes up one of his two entries at the weekend over 2m, it would look a strange preparation for a bartlett, when there's plenty of races he could be running in over further if they wanted.

The gigginstown horse Harsh, just as he's an example from the pipe last year, ran on the 9th and 23rd of Feb before running in the pipe. He wasn't a main dart, but just shows he's not really as worried about spacing as much as someone like willie.

He went off 100-1 and wasn't a novice though.
He'd ran about 100 times
I get the message about gaps between races though, just not ideal for a winning chance IMO

 

[riccirich]

He went off 100-1 and wasn't a novice though.
He'd ran about 100 times
I get the message about gaps between races though, just not ideal for a winning chance IMO

Nevertheless, he could have just not ran in one of those two races if he was worried about spacing runs
As the likes of willie rarely runs anything in quick succession, including the lesser lights.

I wouldn't necessarily be a fan of the types who get loads of quick runs either, just pointing out I see no reason why it couldn't happen. For me though it's not necessarily even about tiring the horse out, as if those runs resemble jeriko du reponets then they probably aren't much more tiring than a piece of work I'd be more worried that it's just making it obvious to everyone that your messing around with a handicap in mind. And the handicappers aren't in their own bubble, they'll see every tom dick and harry mouthing off on socials about this big plot job from elliott amd seeing him getting punted, and probably slap him with a hefty tax, as has been happening with most of elliotts handicappers the past few seasons.

 

[Killiney]

Market looks all wrong for that Moscow flyer. Sons and lovers second fave on hurdle debut? Entered in a maiden on the same day. And sober 6/4 fave after beating arch empire a length getting 6lbs?

I'd be all over any of saint baco, free spirit or port authority if I knew they were running.

Yes I have been busy researching Sober and not much to go on. In addition like The Reverend seems to be dual purpose type. In my opinion not best suited to Suprrme!

 

[riccirich]

Yes I have been busy researching Sober and not much to go on. In addition like The Reverend seems to be dual purpose type. In my opinion not best suited to Suprrme!

Yeah the form of his hurdle run is very ordinary. Not that flat types like him and the reverend can't improve with runs, just wouldn't have him anywhere near 6/4. Unless a lot of the others entered just don't run.