2026 Novice Chasers

[Eggs]

….Hills offer KDB 5/2 and Lulamba 5-1 in their Road to Cheltenham specials.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

He must have a huge amount of ability to pull that hard and still pick up so well when asked at the end.

Jumping was quick and accurate.

Much like final demand something is going to have to improve a lot to get near him in march.

Good thing is we have still to see a fair few make their debuts over fences so hopefully we will see some competition appearing from those that are currently double figure prices.
I shall be keeping a close eye on those types ,having nothing yet on the front two in the market, and no intention of taking their current prices at this early stage.

 

[riccirich]

PP/betfair pushed lovely hurling out to 66/1 for the drinmore after that, since cut to 33s. Hard to know if they'll take their chance with him being a maiden over fences but the trainer and jp have nothing else in it. Should be nowhere near those sorts of prices for a 13l second to kopek on first run over fences and the step up in trip to suit in the drinmore.

Edit: back down to 20s as I was posting.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

PP/betfair pushed lovely hurling out to 66/1 for the drinmore after that, since cut to 33s. Hard to know if they'll take their chance with him being a maiden over fences but the trainer and jp have nothing else in it. Should be nowhere near those sorts of prices for a 13l second to kopek on first run over fences and the step up in trip to suit in the drinmore.

Edit: back down to 20s as I was posting.

An inconspicous run out the back in a grade 1 with a handicap in mind would be very JP

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Good thing is we have still to see a fair few make their debuts over fences so hopefully we will see some competition appearing from those that are currently double figure prices.
I shall be keeping a close eye on those types ,having nothing yet on the front two in the market, and no intention of taking their current prices at this early stage.

Yes we see every season something improves a stone for a fence, they are out there just a case of finding them.

 

[riccirich]

An inconspicous run out the back in a grade 1 with a handicap in mind would be very JP

It would be, and that's the risk you take with that owner. But at the huge prices he was, it's probably worth a go, as they can't all be handicap plots and they do try to win sometimes if they think the horse is good enough.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yes we see every season something improves a stone for a fence, they are out there just a case of finding them.

Yep
Actually having just watched July Flower again, imo her jumping was more like an Arkle hopeful than the two today.
Each way at 20’s is very fair imo
That’s my first Arkle bet.

 

[Kauto’s star]

Completely agree, as soon as Paul gave him some reign jumping was spot on! Just looked a little sticky although not mistakes because he was pulling so much.

Can’t imagine how hard it must be for a jockey jumping fences holding all that reign and timing it with the landing etc if that makes sense.

I genuinely was expecting him to be pulling more given they were at about 26mph early…..pleasantly surprised, maybe not quite as much of a head case this year?

 

[Guinness Village]

We’ve seen the arkle winner today in KDB. Personally, I’d have both July flower and Romeo ahead of Lulamba.

 

[Runragged]

I'm not a backer but found Kopek wildly impressive. Pinged the fences when found a stride, corrected when needed and the way he eased clear when barely asked a question was a joy to watch as a neutral.

Comparing that to Lulamba who I found jumped safely but a bit 'airy' for an Arkle winner. He just didn't seem as efficient at the fences and would need to become more economical to win an Arkle I feel. I guess that is where the NDB comments stem from suggesting he jumps like he could go further. Obviously only their first starts and plenty more to come though also worth remembering Lulamba was getting 8lb today that he wouldn't get in March.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm not a backer but found Kopek wildly impressive. Pinged the fences when found a stride, corrected when needed and the way he eased clear when barely asked a question was a joy to watch as a neutral.

Comparing that to Lulamba who I found jumped safely but a bit 'airy' for an Arkle winner. He just didn't seem as efficient at the fences and would need to become more economical to win an Arkle I feel. I guess that is where the NDB comments stem from suggesting he jumps like he could go further. Obviously only their first starts and plenty more to come though also worth remembering Lulamba was getting 8lb today that he wouldn't get in March.

I actually thought Kopek jumped a bit deliberate early on and got better as the race went which would be no surprise for a novice. Tend to agree with your Lulamba thoughts although thought he was pretty good for a first time effort,but Not sure I want to get too wrapped up in comparing the two favourites until they both have had at least 1 more run and faced opposition that they may face at the festival or at least close to that .

 

[luisgarciaisgod]

Thought both Lulamba and KDB were both excellent today. Gonna be an exciting season.

 

[FinalFurlong91]

I actually thought Kopek jumped a bit deliberate early on and got better as the race went which would be no surprise for a novice. Tend to agree with your Lulamba thoughts although thought he was pretty good for a first time effort,but Not sure I want to get too wrapped up in comparing the two favourites until they both have had at least 1 more run and faced opposition that they may face at the festival or at least close to that .

Paul seemed to be trying to teach him to settle early on

When he gave up and let him stride on the jumping was excellent for a debutant

 

[Eggs]

….KDB;

The winning rider told Racing TV: “I didn’t think he did a whole lot wrong. He had respect for his fences but at the same when time when he saw them he wanted to attack them without doing anything stupid.

“He got in close, figured it out, and I think he learned an awful lot today but when I let him down in the home straight, that was the most taking part. You need both sides of it but that was the fun part.

“He takes a little bit more riding than yer man yesterday (Final Demand) because he’s a two-miler who attacks and goes and the engine is definitely there. I’d love to be on his back wherever he goes."

 

[Benjy23]

Ballyburn, a failed staying chaser who's reverting to hurdles, isn't exactly the comparison you'd want the jockey to be making for an Arkle contender is it!

 

[Durham Edition]

Ballyburn, a failed staying chaser who's reverting to hurdles, isn't exactly the comparison you'd want the jockey to be making for an Arkle contender is it!

Those were my thoughts exactly. I thought surely thats a misquote

 

[opatcho]

I'm on Lulamba from March, so gone into today with a clean slate

Lulamba - I thought that was a very good run from him. They didnt hand about, sectionals where quick early on and you can see that with the two horses that went with Lulamba falling back and finishing being the Bowen horse
It was very hard to judge Lulamba today given they missed the 4 fences, we didnt really get a side on view of his jumping, and he appeared to get into the bottom of 1-2 of them. He looked to have fly over the 3rd or 4th fence but again, the camera angel was behind the horse.

Kopek - Sticky over first 2 fences. But was every good over the last 3 fences. I backed his horse for the DRF and for the Supreme and I cant tell you how much I worried about his temperament. He's just wants to go forward... and thats my biggest worry about him. I wasnt that concerned whether he would be able to jump a fence today, and he was good in the main. Its his temperament. Lets see if he get into a battle (unlikely) between now and the Arkle, as I just wonder if this horse is capable of bottoming himself out. Kopek looks like a horse that could be here one minute, and gone the next - I just can't see him being around for long.

Verdict: Very good beginner chases, for both of them.
Either of them are Sir Gino, or Sprinter Sacre, Douvan. Altior. But their prices are shocking right this moment. How shorter can either of them get!

I'll going to watch them again, with a view of placing a bet on July Flower (20/1). Really like the way she won over the weekend, she looks like a proper horse, easy to ride, scopey, she's able to get over a fence no matter what, and Henry's has this amazing ability to peak his horses for the festival. Her jumping has been tested at CD.
I can't see Kopek being tested before the festival, so how will his jumping and attitude hold up? Still hearing noise from Henderson about the trip for Lulamba... these two are way too short for me to play antepost

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'll going to watch them again, with a view of placing a bet on July Flower (20/1).

Seasonal Debut Ratings:
Winners: 157, 158, 159, 142, 160, 113, 149, 155, 160, 153.
(High 160, Low 113, Avge 155) -ignored outlier 113

First 2 Runs Best:
Winners: 161, 158, 167, 152, 170, 131, 149, 166, 169, 170.
(High 170, Low 131, Avge 162) -ignored outlier 131

Todays RPRs will be interesting but at 140 and 146 July Flower looks to be behind what’s usually needed after two runs….

 

[Yosser]

It never ceases to amaze me at some of the stats that appear on here. Light years in front of my form checking. Though, saying that, my bets are 50% stats and 50% gut feeling.

Top work there Ista, something else to ponder.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

It never ceases to amaze me at some of the stats that appear on here. Light years in front of my form checking. Though, saying that, my bets are 50% stats and 50% gut feeling.

Top work there Ista, something else to ponder.

I can assure you my only effort was copying them from @Saxon Warrior 10 year trends (in members), every ounce of effort to produce these stats was his...