2026 Novice Chasers

[riccirich]

I'd personally be siding with be aware over July flower going forward, and can't believe the disparity in price.

Everything was in July flowers favour over the weekend, and she only had a length and a half to spare. And I see more room for improvement with be aware going forward. Be aware has had 10 total runs in his life, no point to point background and two chase starts. July flower has had 16 total runs, 2 chase starts, but importantly has plenty of experience in france where the size of the hurdles isn't far off english fences. Be aware still looks to be over racing at the moment, if he can learn to settle as the season goes on that is another reason for me to think he can find more improvement than the mare. Finally, I think better ground would suit be aware more so, given that July flower has plenty of good form in france on heavy ground over 2.5-3 miles, I think the more testing conditions over 2m suited her more.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I'd personally be siding with be aware over July flower going forward, and can't believe the disparity in price.

Everything was in July flowers favour over the weekend, and she only had a length and a half to spare. And I see more room for improvement with be aware going forward. Be aware has had 10 total runs in his life, no point to point background and two chase starts. July flower has had 16 total runs, 2 chase starts, but importantly has plenty of experience in france where the size of the hurdles isn't far off english fences. Be aware still looks to be over racing at the moment, if he can learn to settle as the season goes on that is another reason for me to think he can find more improvement than the mare. Finally, I think better ground would suit be aware more so, given that July flower has plenty of good form in france on heavy ground over 2.5-3 miles, I think the more testing conditions over 2m suited her more.

Fair points there, though I suspect Be Aware may be heading down the handicap route for March, he may well go up in grade for Aintree and beyond but right now it looks (to me) that the most likely winners of the G1 novice chases are Kopek and Final Demand, both Mullins, so Dan may well be plotting a route to the Grand Annual or Plate...

 

[Yosser]

I have got Country Mile jotted down for the Grand Annual. Currently had two decent but un-inspiring chase starts, behind Alnilam both times and currently rated at 137, right in the sweet spot on trends for recent winners. I think they are protecting the mark or trying to get an extra few lbs knocked off.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I have got Country Mile jotted down for the Grand Annual. Currently had two decent but un-inspiring chase starts, behind Alnilam both times and currently rated at 137, right in the sweet spot on trends for recent winners. I think they are protecting the mark or trying to get an extra few lbs knocked off.

Right now Be Aware is only 5lb higher, although I suspect he's going to be closer 145 by the morning, 20/21f likely to suit he could well be a runner for the new/old/replacement race whatever that's called, the race Caldwell Potter
won....

 

[riccirich]

Fair points there, though I suspect Be Aware may be heading down the handicap route for March, he may well go up in grade for Aintree and beyond but right now it looks (to me) that the most likely winners of the G1 novice chases are Kopek and Final Demand, both Mullins, so Dan may well be plotting a route to the Grand Annual or Plate...

Could well be the plan. Depends on what opposition looks like I'd assume. If it shapes up to be an open looking arkle, or an arkle with just one clear standout and a small field like it so often does, he may decide why not have a crack at the grade one. He wouldn't be short of ones he can get well handicapped for the likes of the plate/annual.

 

[Ellisgittings]

Fair points there, though I suspect Be Aware may be heading down the handicap route for March, he may well go up in grade for Aintree and beyond but right now it looks (to me) that the most likely winners of the G1 novice chases are Kopek and Final Demand, both Mullins, so Dan may well be plotting a route to the Grand Annual or Plate...

Imo there's nothing in either of Be Aware or July Flower's form to suggest either are capable of winning grade ones. And, if you're a backer of the latter, you'd want a more comprehensive victory over an (expected) handicapper than 1.5L whilst getting 6lb. I suspect Skeltons will work back from either the Grand Annual, Plate, or JR Novice Chase with Be Aware now, but his trip has to be a worry for me. Twice he's looked outpaced over 2m at Chelt but he's struggled to last over further. Maybe he'll stay a bit better with an extra year on his back

 

[Lobos]

Seasonal Debut Ratings:
Winners: 157, 158, 159, 142, 160, 113, 149, 155, 160, 153.
(High 160, Low 113, Avge 155) -ignored outlier 113

First 2 Runs Best:
Winners: 161, 158, 167, 152, 170, 131, 149, 166, 169, 170.
(High 170, Low 131, Avge 162) -ignored outlier 131

Todays RPRs will be interesting but at 140 and 146 July Flower looks to be behind what’s usually needed after two runs….

July Flower close to what HDB's Put The Kettle On achieved after her first two runs so it's possible she too could make the necessary step up in March. That said, this year's Arkle does feel a lot stronger.

 

[Kauto’s star]

July Flower close to what HDB's Put The Kettle On achieved after her first two runs so it's possible she too could make the necessary step up in March. That said, this year's Arkle does feel a lot stronger.

I had a very small saver on July flower before the weekend, only because it’s Henry and he works wonders with the 2 mile mares….will only get the stake back from kopek and munny though

 

[Ellisgittings]

July Flower close to what HDB's Put The Kettle On achieved after her first two runs so it's possible she too could make the necessary step up in March. That said, this year's Arkle does feel a lot stronger.

I'd say realistically that and 2019 were the worst arkles of the last 15 years. Obviously this one looks strong as it stands, but who knows what will turn up. In terms of similarities, I think both stay further and are better on soft ground but I'd be surprised if July Flower can bridge a gap to the big two in the market if both show up

 

[Deleted member 4957]

July Flower close to what HDB's Put The Kettle On achieved after her first two runs so it's possible she too could make the necessary step up in March. That said, this year's Arkle does feel a lot stronger.

@Saxon Warrior has stated PTKO year was an 'outlier' example and has ignored her ratings for the purposes of trends, from memory she won a bunch of Summer pig races but gaining great experience and then having the benefit of a decent rest before the Arkle.
I think the trends Sax identifies shows that in a 'normal' year you need to be better than 140 followed by 146 even if you are a mare, if anything were to happen to the current main protaganists then of course it becomes less of a normal year and hope for July Flower improves but I do think backers are needing others to falter...

 

[opatcho]

best part of 3 months until the festival… the arkle isnt scheduled this weekend

kopek is too short, and I don’t like his type, Kevin Blake has just out a review, and he calls Kopek a wild man - and I agree. He’s exciting in the way that he puts you on the edge of your seat.. he can put in a monster of a performance, but he can also throw in a sticker. Two examples of last season

Not the type I want for a arkle tbh, especially at his current price this far out

based on social media, the Arkle is a done deal. Kopek wins.

I will continue to look elsewhere whilst we have these short priced favs

I’ll be doing the same with Final Demand as soon as a novice hits above 158 RPR over middle distance. Romeo Coolio, 154 on first run, has been added for the BANC

Sir Gino was a banker for the arkle. Injuried

majborough was a banker for the ankle :-/

I’m not a fan of Kopek’s mentality, yes, highly talented, deserves to be AP fav, ran really well today being his first run. Jumped last 2-3 very well. But unbackable at this moment

Antepost bet. July Flower, added

 

[Benjy23]

Are we sure about those ratings? And how much they were adjusted after the events?

There's been some real average horses / hurdlers that have gone on to win Arkles in recent enough years.

Duc des Genievres surely wasn't putting up high ratings finishing 3rd in a beginners chase on second start?

Edwardstone won an egg and spoon race at Warwick second start.

Both after being 140s hurdlers. Jangai Bai just last year another one as well, who seemingly improved for a fence. Maybe the 2nd to Handstands was rated that highly.

Put The Kettle On we've already chosen to ignore and that's 4 of the last 7 winners.

Having said that I can't have Kopek being beaten

 

[Quevega]

best part of 3 months until the festival… the arkle isnt scheduled this weekend

kopek is too short, and I don’t like his type, Kevin Blake has just out a review, and he calls Kopek a wild man - and I agree. He’s exciting in the way that he puts you on the edge of your seat.. he can put in a monster of a performance, but he can also throw in a sticker. Two examples of last season

Not the type I want for a arkle tbh, especially at his current price this far out

based on social media, the Arkle is a done deal. Kopek wins.

I will continue to look elsewhere whilst we have these short priced favs

I’ll be doing the same with Final Demand as soon as a novice hits above 158 RPR over middle distance. Romeo Coolio, 154 on first run, has been added for the BANC

Sir Gino was a banker for the arkle. Injuried

majborough was a banker for the ankle :-/

I’m not a fan of Kopek’s mentality, yes, highly talented, deserves to be AP fav, ran really well today being his first run. Jumped last 2-3 very well. But unbackable at this moment

Antepost bet. July Flower, added

Yep, Both Novice grade ones being dominated by very good horses.
Probably under priced for what they've done so far, but also very likely to go shorter due to the likely lack of competition before March.
Other Irish trainers as we know will usually skip Dublin.
Probably means that we will have the opportunity to get some value before the off.

In the BANC I think there's at least 3 (I've backed) with solid enough credentials,
Lucky Place 50-1 is decent value
Slade Steel 33-1 also
and Western Fold 33-1
I've got a bit better than those prices on exchange and previously but those prices are still decent.
All would look likely to have this race as a Cheltenham target and all have the class and form to compete, and have a better chance than those odds suggest.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

best part of 3 months until the festival… the arkle isnt scheduled this weekend

kopek is too short, and I don’t like his type, Kevin Blake has just out a review, and he calls Kopek a wild man - and I agree. He’s exciting in the way that he puts you on the edge of your seat.. he can put in a monster of a performance, but he can also throw in a sticker. Two examples of last season

Not the type I want for a arkle tbh, especially at his current price this far out

based on social media, the Arkle is a done deal. Kopek wins.

I will continue to look elsewhere whilst we have these short priced favs

I’ll be doing the same with Final Demand as soon as a novice hits above 158 RPR over middle distance. Romeo Coolio, 154 on first run, has been added for the BANC

Sir Gino was a banker for the arkle. Injuried

majborough was a banker for the ankle :-/

I’m not a fan of Kopek’s mentality, yes, highly talented, deserves to be AP fav, ran really well today being his first run. Jumped last 2-3 very well. But unbackable at this moment

Antepost bet. July Flower, added

Absolutely
No horse has won the arkle in November.

I too like Romeo and whilst not backed him specifically for the Arkle I do have him him wtaf for both Arkle and BANC, and thought he was quite impressive.At this stage I think Arkle more likely but I don’t think he would have an issue staying further if needs be.
Lots to happen next few months, that’s for sure.

 

[Quevega]

Are we sure about those ratings? And how much they were adjusted after the events?

There's been some real average horses / hurdlers that have gone on to win Arkles in recent enough years.

Duc des Genievres surely wasn't putting up high ratings finishing 3rd in a beginners chase on second start?

Edwardstone won an egg and spoon race at Warwick second start.

Both after being 140s hurdlers. Jangai Bai just last year another one as well, who seemingly improved for a fence. Maybe the 2nd to Handstands was rated that highly.

Put The Kettle On we've already chosen to ignore and that's 4 of the last 7 winners.

Having said that I can't have Kopek being beaten

Absolutely, and if you look at some of the RPR's handed out in that arkle trial they leave a lot to be desired.
North Hill Harvey got an RPR of 158 in a 3 runner race beating river wylde who ran backwards most of the way

 

[Yosser]

Yep, Both Novice grade ones being dominated by very good horses.
Probably under priced for what they've done so far, but also very likely to go shorter due to the likely lack of competition before March.
Other Irish trainers as we know will usually skip Dublin.
Probably means that we will have the opportunity to get some value before the off.

In the BANC I think there's at least 3 (I've backed) with solid enough credentials,
Lucky Place 50-1 is decent value
Slade Steel 33-1 also
and Western Fold 33-1
I've got a bit better than those prices on exchange and previously but those prices are still decent.
All would look likely to have this race as a Cheltenham target and all have the class and form to compete, and have a better chance than those odds suggest.

I have also backed Lucky Place at 50s. I said i wouldn't back any of Nicky's antepost but he could be the joker in his pack. A bit worrying that Nico said he looks like a 2 and half miler but i don't see another potential runner for Henderson in the BANC that could get to a decent level other than Lucky Place.

 

[Ellisgittings]

best part of 3 months until the festival… the arkle isnt scheduled this weekend

kopek is too short, and I don’t like his type, Kevin Blake has just out a review, and he calls Kopek a wild man - and I agree. He’s exciting in the way that he puts you on the edge of your seat.. he can put in a monster of a performance, but he can also throw in a sticker. Two examples of last season

Not the type I want for a arkle tbh, especially at his current price this far out

based on social media, the Arkle is a done deal. Kopek wins.

I will continue to look elsewhere whilst we have these short priced favs

I’ll be doing the same with Final Demand as soon as a novice hits above 158 RPR over middle distance. Romeo Coolio, 154 on first run, has been added for the BANC

Sir Gino was a banker for the arkle. Injuried

majborough was a banker for the ankle :-/

I’m not a fan of Kopek’s mentality, yes, highly talented, deserves to be AP fav, ran really well today being his first run. Jumped last 2-3 very well. But unbackable at this moment

Antepost bet. July Flower, added

Nothing wrong with taking on the short priced favourites at this stage! I don't see the issue with Kopek's mentality mind, I think it's being overplayed. He was keen at Leopardstown but straightened that out at Chelt. He was keen today but they were crawling along at under 27/8 mph. Generally, he's settled okay. He was straight enough to win a decent enough renewal of the Supreme imo.

I'd be more worried about Final Demand and whether Cheltenham is his bag personally. Probably something of nothing, but he definitely ran below his level there last year. You'd want more evidence for it to be a confirmed quirk but we'll see

 

[Lobos]

Agree that both Lulamba and Kopek look proper sorts and deserve to head the market based on what we've seen this weekend. Re the bad mouthing of Put The Kettle On, are we all forgetting that she actually went on to win the following seasons Champion Chase ? She really wasn't all that bad.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Agree that both Lulamba and Kopek look proper sorts and deserve to head the market based on what we've seen this weekend. Re the bad mouthing of Put The Kettle On, are we all forgetting that she actually went on to win the following seasons Champion Chase ? She really wasn't all that bad.

Maybe they are still upset that she beat Chacun !!

 

[Prestbury]

Are we sure about those ratings? And how much they were adjusted after the events?

There's been some real average horses / hurdlers that have gone on to win Arkles in recent enough years.

Duc des Genievres surely wasn't putting up high ratings finishing 3rd in a beginners chase on second start?

Edwardstone won an egg and spoon race at Warwick second start.

Both after being 140s hurdlers. Jangai Bai just last year another one as well, who seemingly improved for a fence. Maybe the 2nd to Handstands was rated that highly.

Put The Kettle On we've already chosen to ignore and that's 4 of the last 7 winners.

Having said that I can't have Kopek being beaten

You have to be very careful looking at RPRs after the event as the RP do a lot of retrospective adjustments, sometimes by quite big margins. For example going into the Festival last year the RPR for Kopek Des Bordes' two hurdle runs were 132 for his debut and 153 for his DRF win. Take a look now and they are 140 and 157 respectively. Similarly with Final Demand whose debut run was increased from 128 to 140 in light of subsequent events.

For another example, if you look at the Turners then you can see that every winner in the last 8 years had achieved an RPR of at least 137 in its first two hurdle runs. However, The New Lion's first two runs were only rated 131 and 135 going into this year's race. After the race they had magically been upgraded to 132 and 137 respectively.