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2026 Champion Hurdle

FinalFurlong91 said:
I mean hed be a better winner than golden ace
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Fair. Let’s say if those two are the ones fighting out the finish, then I’ll quit the sport (for all I salute connections for rolling the dice last year….gotta be in it to win it….cough cough rich Ritchie)
 
FinalFurlong91 said:
Golden ace, burdett road and winter fog

Thats a county hurdle 1-2-3 not champion hurdle
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Yep, 2 best horses fell and the 2 gigginstown horses went too fast early.
Shows what can happen.
 
Loads of confidence behind Lossiemouth for Irish CH tonight.
 
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Lobos said:
Is he not below even that average though ?
Be surprised if he made top 4 this weekend.
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What makes El Fabiolo a below average horse outside of the fact he has forgotten how to jump a fence?

His nose loss to Jonbon on his 2nd start at Aintree?
His demolition job in the Irish Arkle? Winning an Arkle?
His Dublin Chase win?

He has the engine of a 170 horse, if he didn't he wouldn't have even placed in some of his final chases given how often he hits the fences, his falls weren't tailed off exhaustion he was in contention and fell.

If El Fabiolo can lose less than 5 lengths in the jumping department he will be involved more than many. I'd empty my bank account on a match vs the current champ. (If I had fallers insurance!)


Separately, this would be his 5th hurdle run, be interesting to see what mark he is given if he is tailed off!
 
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For RPR fans, the case for El Fabiolo (I did say that you only used them when they support your case!)

El Fabiolo was given a 160 RPR for his first hurdle race in over 3 years and his first race of the season. Surely he's entitled to improve on that next time. As it is, it's the same rating as Lossiemouth's best so he only needs to find the mares allowance.

El Fabiolo's best RPR as a novice hurdler was 156. It's quite common for novices to improve 10lb in open company.

El Fabiolo had a best chase RPR of 178 and achieved 172 in his Arkle win. A rule of thumb reduction for chases to hurdles is again 10lb which again puts him in the ballpark.

All assumption and extrapolation of course, but it does show that his engine has been at least as good as anything in the race. Good knockabout theory but the proof has to wait for the weekend if they all turn up.
 
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It's hard to argue a case against El Fabiolo too strongly IMO as it's a very unusual situation due to the lack of genuine top quality 2 mile hurdlers in training. Although I would ignore the RPR he got recently personally.

He was rated 170+ over fences, but is now 9 years old.
So he clearly has ability.

It sounds like he runs Sunday, even though mt personal opinion is that Willie should roll out the carpet for Lossie and not send a team of his own to get in her way. She deserves to be treated like some of his past number ones, like State Man and Faugheen and The Fly etc.

Anzadam and Poniros running is fair enough, but El Fabiolo and Ballyburn seem unnecessary to me.
But he may have already sold the plans to connections so maybe he will run one or both.

I expect if they do run they will be kept well out of her way though.
Weirdly if the pace goes wrong and she's at the wrong end of it then one of them could run well.

But El Fabiolo as a champion hurdler would be a no from me.
I think there is only Gordons mare that can give her a race, and maybe Anzadam.
But not long till we see, weather permitting.
 
archie said:
It's true but if you rely on that stat:
1 it's a career best by just 1lb.
2 BDA is well clear at 2 miles using RPR.
3 It's a pony ratings system that is only ever used when it supports the argument that you are trying to make.
4 Rudimentary use of your own eyes should tell you that both are better over further than 2 miles.

Lossiemouth can probably be relied upon to run to about 160. With the fillies allowance, it would have been enough to win last year but hardly at all in this century. It might be enough this year but, without nrnb, I'd like to see how Anzadam and El Fabiolo go this weekend before parting with any hard earned. Remarkably, El Fabiolo's best chase OR is exactly the same as Constitution Hill's best hurdles OR.

Stats eh!
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1. It's 4lb on RPR's from the 156 she ended last season with and her rating for the 2024 Mares Hurdle. Interestingly she is rated 1lb lower on official ratings than the mark she got put up for her win in the Hatton's Grace last year despite RPR's rating the recent performances higher.

2. She is 5lb ahead from one run, the rest of her performances are below the 160 Lossiemouth has got the last twice. They both also have the same official rating of 159.

3. It is another tool to help weigh up the strength of runs and form. It is never going to be 100% accurate but it should be a fair assessment. However, it can lead to inflated ratings when certain form lines cross which can lead to future higher ratings than perhaps warranted.

4. Horses change, especially as they grow up, learn to race and are trained differently. The Lossiemouth of 2 years ago I am sure is a different Lossiemouth to now. Would she be as effective at 2 1/2m now as she used to be? Honest answer is we don't know, all we can do is surmise. For me, I go by what a horse does on the track and currently, Lossiemouth and BDA are the best 2 mile hurdlers around (With their allowance and the fact CH can't jump). That's not to say it can't change. El Fab and Anzadam this season have the potential to improve whilst Golden Ace has a history of getting the job done. On 2 1/2m form BDA still has a fair bit to prove though she could well be capable of that. Until she tries though it's an unknown.

Your final point, I would expect Lossiemouth to be capable of better than what we have seen so far over 2m. Her fine record at Cheltenham, the likely strong pace and the fact she will be primed for the day should all bring about improvement upon her two runs this season. How much is up for debate but I would be confident she hasn't peaked at an RPR of 160 over 2m.
 
Anyone that wants Lossiemouth in the Champion Hurdle will be hoping she's the best of the Mullins lot at the DRF.

That's what it is going to boil down to for me, regardless of what figures other horses have posted.
 
Her UK official rating may now be in excess of 160 I reckon, but may depend on how Sunday goes as they don't have to rate her until she's over here.
I think of all the top horses she has been under rated overall from most rating systems which is good when the markets reflect that also, as she's been a good money spinner for those that believe she's better than her ratings suggest.
I certainly do.
 
Personally I hope all of Mullins horses run, and we get to find out on the racetrack which one or ones should then go on and run in the CH.
 
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