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2026 Champion Hurdle

Brooksie said:
To be fair her best 2 mile form was in a race setup to be a lung bursting test of stamina. She definitely won't be going chasing to win a champion chase that's for sure, she's seen as a gold cup prospect.

The horses Matnie produced all wanted further. Mighty Potter would have been seen to great effect if he'd had the chance to tackle 3 mile rip, Caldwell Potter and French Dynamite showed improvement upped in trip.

The only way I see BDA winning a champion hurdle is if the race is relentless from the off. She doesn't seem to have that tactical speed to go by a horse, we saw that when Golden Ace beat her. Weirdly enough you'd almost want her to get beat in a crawl at the DRF. If they try pace setting tactics again this weekend which looks likely, she'll probably leave her season at Leopardstown again.
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Indiana Jones is a Matnie who has shown a bit of speed with his best form all at 2m albeit a quicker sire in Blue Bresil.

I don't think she is short of toe, she just wouldn't be as quick as some when it comes to shorter bursts of speed. She managed to keep up with State Man in the Morgiana and beat him though had the benefit of a run. When Golden Ace beat her in the Mares Novice it was more to do with tactics, but that's just my opinion. Either way I would argue she is physically more developed now to cope with 2m.

You may be right anyway and the DRF race is the one they are primarily targeting. It's the one they have the pacemaker in whilst he hasn't been given an entry in the Champion Hurdle. Ensure they give it everything to win this and see where they go from here. I think given the chance she would win the Champion Hurdle but I don't pay the bills and Elliott is looking at that trainers title also in Ireland...
 
Just read that parts of Leopardstown are waterlogged. Is there a plan B for the DRF if they can’t race this weekend? It would hamper a lot of preparations
 
Anzadam
Ballyburn
Casheldale Lad
El Fabiolo
Poniros
Brighterdaysahead
Lossiemouth
 
My opinion on Brighterdaysahead is that we cannot possibly know if that run at Leopardstown ended her effectively for the season.
And if you do believe that theory, then will she ever go to the well again ??
She had from Christmas to March to rest and think about it last year and then under performed at Cheltenham.
If that race left a mark of any sort, there is no guarantee that it's completely gone away.

Also, I know the clock and visuals say that what she did at Leopardstown was exceptional, it's probably also fair to say that State Man was not right that day, from a horse fitness and tactically perspective, especially given the way he handled the Champion hurdle pace compared to her. So how good was it really ?

It looks like a case of Good Day vs Bad Day then Bad Day vs Good Day. Which can happen. :ROFLMAO:
 
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Quevega said:
My opinion on Brighterdaysahead is that we cannot possibly know if that run at Leopardstown ended her effectively for the season.
And if you do believe that theory, then will she ever go to the well again ??
She had from Christmas to March to rest and think about it last year and then under performed at Cheltenham.
If that race left a mark of any sort, there is no guarantee that it's completely gone away.

Also, I know the clock and visuals say that what she did at Leopardstown was exceptional, it's probably also fair to say that State Man was not right that day, from a horse fitness and tactically perspective, especially given the way he handled the Champion hurdle pace compared to her. So how good was it really ?

It looks like a case of Good Day vs Bad Day then Bad Day vs Good Day. Which can happen. :ROFLMAO:
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On your first part, we don't know whether she would go through with it again when it comes to it. Arguably she might not need to and could run to 90% of that and still win. Invariably 3 months isn't long enough to forgive and forget those exertions with 6 months to a year a better timescale. I'm always reminded of Bristol De Mai in this type of situation. Could be relied upon to turn up twice at the beginning of the season (invariably the Betfair Chase) but that was it, nothing close to his form after. The horse gave his all and it finished him for the season. No real excuses for this weekend. She has had time to recover, had a prep run and conditions should be no problem. Personally I like to see good horses pushed to their capabilities and see what they are really capable of. We don't get enough of that at the moment, largely because of injuries and not having top quality horses competing at the same time.

What BDA did on the day you refer to wouldn't be based around State Man in any way, but the other horses in the race, especially Winter Fog who seemed to run his race. That's not to say it is possible every other horse in the race underperformed, which is obviously more likely in a small field, but she does also have the clock to back up that form.
 
Gino.....

“He’s had another comfortable night and is weight-bearing on that off-hind leg, which is very good news.

“We are hopeful they’ll be able to pop him back in the ambulance and bring him back to Seven Barrows sometime next week.”

Henderson, who said on Sunday it was not out of the question Sir Gino may be able to race again one day, added: “The prognosis for the future… they say you won’t really know the true extent of it for maybe three or four months.”
 
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He'll race again unless connections decide he has had a rough enough time of it for one still so young, I see a Group winner whos pelvis fracture was so bad it was compound in 2 places, came back to win another Group race as well.
 
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Saw an article on Lossiemouth saying her best two RPR's (160) so far in her career have been achieved in her last two races over 2m. Is that correct??
 
Lobos said:
Saw an article on Lossiemouth saying her best two RPR's (160) so far in her career have been achieved in her last two races over 2m. Is that correct??
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Impossible.

She doesn't have the speed for two miles, as shown in that one run at kempton a year ago.
 
Lobos said:
Saw an article on Lossiemouth saying her best two RPR's (160) so far in her career have been achieved in her last two races over 2m. Is that correct??
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Not sure, but would be no surprise.
Not beat much over further has she, so hard to get a decent rating I imagine.
 
It's true but if you rely on that stat:
1 it's a career best by just 1lb.
2 BDA is well clear at 2 miles using RPR.
3 It's a pony ratings system that is only ever used when it supports the argument that you are trying to make.
4 Rudimentary use of your own eyes should tell you that both are better over further than 2 miles.

Lossiemouth can probably be relied upon to run to about 160. With the fillies allowance, it would have been enough to win last year but hardly at all in this century. It might be enough this year but, without nrnb, I'd like to see how Anzadam and El Fabiolo go this weekend before parting with any hard earned. Remarkably, El Fabiolo's best chase OR is exactly the same as Constitution Hill's best hurdles OR.

Stats eh!
 
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archie said:
It's true but if you rely on that stat:
1 it's a career best by just 1lb.
2 BDA is well clear at 2 miles using RPR.
3 It's a pony ratings system that is only ever used when it supports the argument that you are trying to make.
4 Rudimentary use of your own eyes should tell you that both are better over further than 2 miles.



Stats eh!
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3 & 4 are spot on, RPRs are like people using the word "Vibes" to describe something, there's nothing substantive going on up top.
 
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archie said:
It's true but if you rely on that stat:
1 it's a career best by just 1lb.
2 BDA is well clear at 2 miles using RPR.
3 It's a pony ratings system that is only ever used when it supports the argument that you are trying to make.
4 Rudimentary use of your own eyes should tell you that both are better over further than 2 miles.

Lossiemouth can probably be relied upon to run to about 160. With the fillies allowance, it would have been enough to win last year but hardly at all in this century. It might be enough this year but, without nrnb, I'd like to see how Anzadam and El Fabiolo go this weekend before parting with any hard earned. Remarkably, El Fabiolo's best chase OR is exactly the same as Constitution Hill's best hurdles OR.

Stats eh!
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If el fabiolo wins the champion hurdle I may just give up this sport 😂
 
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