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2026 Champion Hurdle

riccirich said:
Good lord 😂

Ricci and mullins were talking about her for the champion hurdle for a year. Mullins and townend then decided that they could win both races if they split her and State man, and ricci went along with that if townend said he wouldn't be on her in the champion hurdle, suiting mullins and townends plan perfectly, which was very unlucky not to come off. Ricci/mulins/townend then say whatever nonsense they think would justify them going back on what they said, which was that she was being aimed at the champion hurdle.

Unlikely hypothetical scenario but it fits - constitution hill makes a comeback and wins well. Henderson realises he can now win both the champion hurdle and champion chase with him and sir gino. So he goes back on what he said about sir gino going for the champion hurdle, and justifies it with "we always thought he was a better chaser and dont think he's as good a hurdler so might not be good enough to win a champion hurdle". Would you then just accept that sir gino isn't good enough to win a champion hurdle? Despite what you've seen with your own eyes on the track? Just because Henderson had to come up with something to justify going back on what he said? Exactly like Ricci and mullins had to do.
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Love that scenario re CHill
Hendo would as well, no doubt he wants to go chasing permanently with SG.
Circumstances have led to this current situation with the issues he had, and taking in the CH before going chasing ain’t too sad for horse and connections.
 
Quevega said:
Yeah. if it happens it will be both a good race and a good betting market.
I'd be with the mare at the prices but would have the race as a close one, with him as slight favourite on normal ground.
Then Golden Ace will win :oops:
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Hahaha, just have to have her onside…..don’t we?
 
Quevega said:
Everyone knows now how I think about when people rate a horses fitness levels in percentage terms.
It makes me laugh every time i read a comment or article that does this.
It's fucking mental. But harmless I suppose.

We all know that horses will be fitter at times than others and below par on some occasions, and then we will get races that are run to suit their optimum and others that are not. The relative fitness on these days vs their opposition is what brings about differing results. alongside other factors like ground conditions, wind, jumping and fucking luck, good and bad.

Good example, State Man was deemed to have been a bit heavy and not as fit as they'd have liked when beaten in the Morgiana.
He then went off 4/9 next time with reports that he was in top gear again, but got fucking hammered by the same mare he battled it out with previously. She's never repeated that as yet, but it's fairly obvious that State Man was below par that day and she was most definitely on a going day, after seeing his and her champion hurdle effort.
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It’s more a more looking likely that BDA may have had a few of those “crunchy carrots” Exar Essay talks about, in last year Leopardstown G1…….a 168 OR performance never looking like being repeated again…….
 
Wayward Lad said:
It’s more a more looking likely that BDA may have had a few of those “crunchy carrots” Exar Essay talks about, in last year Leopardstown G1…….a 168 OR performance never looking like being repeated again…….
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It was exceptional, and in the same league as Con Hills supreme.
Just a worldy performance.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Love that scenario re CHill
Hendo would as well, no doubt he wants to go chasing permanently with SG.
Circumstances have led to this current situation with the issues he had, and taking in the CH before going chasing ain’t too sad for horse and connections.
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If Gino wins the champion hurdle, do you think they'll still go chasing ?
 
Guinness Village said:
Well plenty of 4/1 available today for churdle. If she wins at DRF, might be a bit churlish not to send best 2m hurdler in Ireland over for champ hurdle. Surely 👊
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Whilst I have backed Lossiemouth for the CH before the season started, the 4/1 readily available worries me a tad…….is the money telling a story or is it just bookmakers trying to balance their books?

Lossiemouth was only 5/1 at the start of the season, yet she has not blotted her copybook this year, rather the opposite

She has won both her 2m hurdle races this year, one emphatic and the other pretty good in a G1……..however without any other challengers putting their hats in the ring, Sir Gino has hardened at the same time to 6/4……..why when Lossiemouth’s runs were not on her preferable ground and that the first day of the festival should be more to her liking?

After Lossiemouth’s last win her price shortened for the Mares Hurdle from 11/4 to a mix of 9/4 and some 5/2…….why didn’t her price lengthen? - was it a result of Townend’s interview?

The New Lion has also slightly shortened to 4/1, 9/2 with some 5/1 available (started the year at 4/1)

Whilst Sir Ginos price is a reflection of the bookmakers liabilities and beliefs on his chances of winning the CH then Lossiemouth’s price has the additional component of which race she will run in at the festival…….and at the moment I suspect, whilst no way clear cut, that the bookmakers still think it’s the Mares Hurdle, probably at a 60/40 ratio.

It’s either this or the bookmakers are trying to balance their books against Sir Gino (probably a bit of a springer from the start of the year AP wise) and The New Lion (thought of as the Champion elect from Cons Hill/State Man) at the beginning of the season.
 
Love reading all this chat and i'm just going to admit(not to stir things up) that I'm seriously in the minority by thinking Lossiemouth is not a superstar at 2m and BDA will beat her at the DRF. Think me crazy but Anzadam could beat them both if they could keep a lid on him.

I do think Sir Gino just wins it anyway....but I do still have my Con Hill dream along with my only bet in the race😁.
 
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Quevega said:
If Gino wins the champion hurdle, do you think they'll still go chasing ?
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Yes I do.
Might be wrong of course, and it’s a great position to be in if they have that sort of choice.
Just feel that they have always said he’s a chaser and thought of as such, that they won’t delay beyond this season.

Edit……Actually this may get a tad complicated.
Lulamba might throw a spanner in the works. He turns out to be a top class 2m chaser, then what?
Maybe a bit more up in the air in that scenario being same ownership.
 
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BigL said:
The stable/owner have literally been telling you for the last 12 months that she isn't a champion hurdler. "Maybe she's just a very good mare" - rich ricci
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We have to factor in that 2 horses connections felt they could not beat over 2m at the Festival, State Man and Constipation Hill, are both missing this year. Makes a huge difference imo. I reckon she'll run in the CH even if she does get beat at DRF , provided she's not hammered of course. She is way, way better at Cheltenham than any other course and especially in the Spring. Another massive factor.
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Yes I do.
Might be wrong of course, and it’s a great position to be in if they have that sort of choice.
Just feel that they have always said he’s a chaser and thought of as such, that they won’t delay beyond this season.

Edit……Actually this may get a tad complicated.
Lulamba might throw a spanner in the works. He turns out to be a top class 2m chaser, then what?
Maybe a bit more up in the air in that scenario being same ownership.
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Like to see the thinking out loud. :LOL:
We'll know more on the Tuesday night maybe ?
 
Carnage at Taunton said:
Yes I do.
Might be wrong of course, and it’s a great position to be in if they have that sort of choice.
Just feel that they have always said he’s a chaser and thought of as such, that they won’t delay beyond this season.

Edit……Actually this may get a tad complicated.
Lulamba might throw a spanner in the works. He turns out to be a top class 2m chaser, then what?
Maybe a bit more up in the air in that scenario being same ownership.
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Yep, you've worked it out. Lulamba 2027 CC and Sir Gino for a second CH in 2027.
 
Odddog said:
Wouldn’t do it with a young horse, usually takes an exceptional horse at the very peak of its powers to win at both.
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He are we talking about? Sorry, just been to Asda.
 
The last time WPM had this mares conundrum was with Annie Power. In the end he only went CH with her because he had nothing else for the race and it was very winnable. I’d forgotten how bad a field that was but just looked - 10YO MTOY 2nd, Nicholls Canyon 3rd FFS. Unless Lossiemouth faces a similar penalty kick then I am sure she goes Mares. Deep down they know she can’t beat Sir Gino.
 
Odddog said:
The last time WPM had this mares conundrum was with Annie Power. In the end he only went CH with her because he had nothing else for the race and it was very winnable. I’d forgotten how bad a field that was but just looked - 10YO MTOY 2nd, Nicholls Canyon 3rd FFS. Unless Lossiemouth faces a similar penalty kick then I am sure she goes Mares. Deep down they know she can’t beat Sir Gino.
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And he had the 4/6 fav Vroum Vroum Mag for the mares. So was hardly giving that up.
 
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Odddog said:
The last time WPM had this mares conundrum was with Annie Power. In the end he only went CH with her because he had nothing else for the race and it was very winnable. I’d forgotten how bad a field that was but just looked - 10YO MTOY 2nd, Nicholls Canyon 3rd FFS. Unless Lossiemouth faces a similar penalty kick then I am sure she goes Mares. Deep down they know she can’t beat Sir Gino.
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I humbly beg of you, and anyone else that uses similar language, please dont say things like "deep down they know she cant beat sir gino". Such silly statements annoy me more than they should, to the point I want to spend ten minutes typing out a paragraph about how ridiculous it is, and that time could really be spent on something more useful 🤣
 
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