2026 Champion Hurdle

[Ellisgittings]

It's clear that Mullins does not want lossiemouth to go champion so why don't they just turn her up undercooked at down royal and get her beat ?

What's she running in at Down Royal?

 

[Lobos]

What's she running in at Down Royal?

He meant DRF .

 

[Ellisgittings]

Either way, it's a Grade 1 so he'll want to win it. How's it even clear he doesn't want to run her in the Champion?

 

[Lobos]

Either way, it's a Grade 1 so he'll want to win it. How's it even clear he doesn't want to run her in the Champion?

It's not. He definitely wants her to run in it.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

It's not. He definitely wants her to run in it.

Not according to Ruby.
Unless they think the CH is her best chance of a win.

 

[Yosser]

It does feel as though the noises coming out of closutton are preparing everybody for a mares hurdle. IMO, they have seen Sir Gino and thought, 'nah, mares for her' even if she wins at the DRF. I've gone for my first roll ups with the Scottish (Sunday) leagues tomorrow and she is involved but in the mares division

 

[Quevega]

How does anyone not see why the rhetoric from the Mullins yard is so guarded with Lossiemouth.
They just don;t want to commit like they have done before and look like twats again.
It's really that simple.
They do not need to make a decision now so why offer one up ?
But it's obvious to me anyway the direction she's heading, it's just if something happens that makes her switch.
I personally don't think they'd avoid any other horse but if Wodhooh was out of the picture then the mares is a shoe in, so can see the temptation there. But even then I'd imagine she'd have to have been beaten in Dublin.

Mullins is a big believer in horses earning their places in races.
He is often very strict with wanting them to win a maiden then graded etc.
If they win the best trials for the championship races then they usually go for the championship races.
He will rarely divert from this unless good reason.
One might be weather affected schedules or another example is if he feels he needs to support a race that he likes on the calendar.
The 2 mile novice chase at xmas is a good example as he ran Salvator who was still a maiden which is unusual, but he had moaned so much about the race not being there last year then he'd have looked a cunt just sending westport whatshisname.

 

[Lobos]

Not according to Ruby.
Unless they think the CH is her best chance of a win.

So if she wins at the DRF but goes to the Mares, that'll mean Willie will not have a runner in the Champion Hurdle. Bonkers.

 

[Quevega]

Not according to Ruby.
Unless they think the CH is her best chance of a win.

Ruby's comments on that show, whilst simplistic and one can see the basic point.
It was also open to get ripped to pieces.
He was being a Nark. Which he is prone to do.

It will not be the race she has the best chance of winning, she'll be in the best race they believe she can win.
That's the difference.

One of the thing Mullins said last year was that "she'd just be another runner". I strongly disagreed, even though she'd have probably been fourth or fifth in the betting. And as it turned out - all the "other runners" filled the places and took all the prize money. So he looked a mug after the event.

Should she win in Dublin then she's going to be second favourite I'd reckon.

If what Ruby said was true then no horse would ever step up in grade/class.
Which is just one of the reasons why the mantra of - "I enter my horses in races I believe they can win" can be both truth and bullshit at the same time.
Another reason is that this simply cannot be true all of the time, otherwise it would be really tough getting up every day for all the trainers that say this, as the number of times they are wrong will undoubtedly affect them and their belief

 

[BigL]

By them not committing to the champion hurdle tells you that they don't think she is good enough for it. Sir Gino is way too fast for her over 2m. I do think though she will run in the champion. Brighter days ahead looks a better bet for the mares after her performance last year in the champion

 

[riccirich]

By them not committing to the champion hurdle tells you that they don't think she is good enough for it. Sir Gino is way too fast for her over 2m. I do think though she will run in the champion. Brighter days ahead looks a better bet for the mares after her performance last year in the champion

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever that sir gino is "way too fast for her over 2m". She's just beaten brighterdaysahead cosily on quick ground over 2m at leopardstown, the c+d where bda ran her best ever race and at a time Gordon's horses are flying. Anzadam back in third beaten a similar distance to what sir gino beat golden ace by at kempton, and anzadam and Golden ace are closely matched on Newcastle form. She was odds on in running to beat state man when coming down at the drf. The "shes not quick enough" argument is based off a single below par run at kempton a year ago. She hasn't looked outpaced in any other run in grade one two mile races. Not to mention day one at Cheltenham is very likely to be less speedy conditions than kempton and leopardstown on quick ground.

The other argument I see from people is "bda was only half fit and nearly got to her" or "sir gino was half fit hell improve again on that". We dont know how fit any of them are, it's all just bullshit assumptions and guesswork. Gordon's horses were absolutely flying, first run of the season or not there's a good chance that was right up to bda right at her best. And like I said about constitution hill last Xmas when everyone was certain for some reason he was only "80% fit" or some nonsense, there's a good chance sir gino was fully fit, as like with con hill last year,they may want to know how good he still is after a serious injury. And not come away wondering was it fitness that let him down if he was beaten, and carry on the uncertainty over how good he still is for even longer.

 

[BigL]

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever that sir gino is "way too fast for her over 2m". She's just beaten brighterdaysahead cosily on quick ground over 2m at leopardstown, the c+d where bda ran her best ever race and at a time Gordon's horses are flying. Anzadam back in third beaten a similar distance to what sir gino beat golden ace by at kempton, and anzadam and Golden ace are closely matched on Newcastle form. She was odds on in running to beat state man when coming down at the drf. The "shes not quick enough" argument is based off a single below par run at kempton a year ago. She hasn't looked outpaced in any other run in grade one two mile races. Not to mention day one at Cheltenham is very likely to be less speedy conditions than kempton and leopardstown on quick ground.

The other argument I see from people is "bda was only half fit and nearly got to her" or "sir gino was half fit hell improve again on that". We dont know how fit any of them are, it's all just bullshit assumptions and guesswork. Gordon's horses were absolutely flying, first run of the season or not there's a good chance that was right up to bda right at her best. And like I said about constitution hill last Xmas when everyone was certain for some reason he was only "80% fit" or some nonsense, there's a good chance sir gino was fully fit, as like with con hill last year,they may want to know how good he still is after a serious injury. And not come away wondering was it fitness that let him down if he was beaten, and carry on the uncertainty over how good he still is for even longer.

The stable/owner have literally been telling you for the last 12 months that she isn't a champion hurdler. "Maybe she's just a very good mare" - rich ricci

 

[Guinness Village]

Well plenty of 4/1 available today for churdle. If she wins at DRF, might be a bit churlish not to send best 2m hurdler in Ireland over for champ hurdle. Surely

 

[riccirich]

The stable/owner have literally been telling you for the last 12 months that she isn't a champion hurdler. "Maybe she's just a very good mare" - rich ricci

Good lord

Ricci and mullins were talking about her for the champion hurdle for a year. Mullins and townend then decided that they could win both races if they split her and State man, and ricci went along with that if townend said he wouldn't be on her in the champion hurdle, suiting mullins and townends plan perfectly, which was very unlucky not to come off. Ricci/mulins/townend then say whatever nonsense they think would justify them going back on what they said, which was that she was being aimed at the champion hurdle.

Unlikely hypothetical scenario but it fits - constitution hill makes a comeback and wins well. Henderson realises he can now win both the champion hurdle and champion chase with him and sir gino. So he goes back on what he said about sir gino going for the champion hurdle, and justifies it with "we always thought he was a better chaser and dont think he's as good a hurdler so might not be good enough to win a champion hurdle". Would you then just accept that sir gino isn't good enough to win a champion hurdle? Despite what you've seen with your own eyes on the track? Just because Henderson had to come up with something to justify going back on what he said? Exactly like Ricci and mullins had to do.

 

[Yosser]

Good lord

Ricci and mullins were talking about her for the champion hurdle for a year. Mullins and townend then decided that they could win both races if they split her and State man, and ricci went along with that if townend said he wouldn't be on her in the champion hurdle, suiting mullins and townends plan perfectly, which was very unlucky not to come off. Ricci/mulins/townend then say whatever nonsense they think would justify them going back on what they said, which was that she was being aimed at the champion hurdle.

Unlikely hypothetical scenario but it fits - constitution hill makes a comeback and wins well. Henderson realises he can now win both the champion hurdle and champion chase with him and sir gino. So he goes back on what he said about sir gino going for the champion hurdle, and justifies it with "we always thought he was a better chaser and dont think he's as good a hurdler so might not be good enough to win a champion hurdle". Would you then just accept that sir gino isn't good enough to win a champion hurdle? Despite what you've seen with your own eyes on the track? Just because Henderson had to come up with something to justify going back on what he said? Exactly like Ricci and mullins had to do.

As far fetched as that sounds. I wouldn't rule that second part out one bit.

 

[Quevega]

The stable/owner have literally been telling you for the last 12 months that she isn't a champion hurdler. "Maybe she's just a very good mare" - rich ricci

Nigel Twiston Davies spent 5 years telling everyone The New One would win a champion hurdle.
What owners and trainers say sometimes has to be taken into context in terms of what is the situation at that given time.
Your quote from Ricci from last season - is this your evidence of the yard telling us they think she's not and never will be champion hurdle material ?
He even starts his comment with the word maybe !!
That's not even taking into account that as time goes by, things and circumstances change as we see new evidence emerge etc etc.
Such as State Man out, Con Hill likely out.

 

[opatcho]

They went much slower in this years renewal - that’s not an assumption, it’s a fact

“… but you can’t compare races from different years” … you can, and it’s obvious last years renewals was far quicker that what BDA achieved this year, she’s not the same horse.

I think (and this is an assumption) is that Gordon had her 90%, and Lossie was running around the same given Mullins yard. Lossie I do expect to run better at Cheltenham, as it’s a track she really exceeds at

I do ask myself …. if Lossiemouth was in this years race, how do I think she would gave performed. Personally, I think she would have finished 10+ lengths back being BDA. That was a performance of the lifetime from BDA, around 8 seconds quicker on similar ground, but BDA is no where new operating at the same level

My view - Sir Gino is the one to beat if the going is good to soft, if we have a heavy / testing festival, then I’d prefer Lossiemouth’s staying power and grittiness

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Ruby's comments on that show, whilst simplistic and one can see the basic point.
It was also open to get ripped to pieces.
He was being a Nark. Which he is prone to do.

It will not be the race she has the best chance of winning, she'll be in the best race they believe she can win.
That's the difference.

One of the thing Mullins said last year was that "she'd just be another runner". I strongly disagreed, even though she'd have probably been fourth or fifth in the betting. And as it turned out - all the "other runners" filled the places and took all the prize money. So he looked a mug after the event.

Should she win in Dublin then she's going to be second favourite I'd reckon.

If what Ruby said was true then no horse would ever step up in grade/class.
Which is just one of the reasons why the mantra of - "I enter my horses in races I believe they can win" can be both truth and bullshit at the same time.
Another reason is that this simply cannot be true all of the time, otherwise it would be really tough getting up every day for all the trainers that say this, as the number of times they are wrong will undoubtedly affect them and their belief

Just saying what I heard him say.
Personally don’t give a flying fuck what he says, but others might.
I want her in the CH, big danger of a match without her, and a potential mismatch at that. And the 2miler against the stronger stayer adds intrigue for me with the difference in styles .

 

[Quevega]

Everyone knows now how I think about when people rate a horses fitness levels in percentage terms.
It makes me laugh every time i read a comment or article that does this.
It's fucking mental. But harmless I suppose.

We all know that horses will be fitter at times than others and below par on some occasions, and then we will get races that are run to suit their optimum and others that are not. The relative fitness on these days vs their opposition is what brings about differing results. alongside other factors like ground conditions, wind, jumping and fucking luck, good and bad.

Good example, State Man was deemed to have been a bit heavy and not as fit as they'd have liked when beaten in the Morgiana.
He then went off 4/9 next time with reports that he was in top gear again, but got fucking hammered by the same mare he battled it out with previously. She's never repeated that as yet, but it's fairly obvious that State Man was below par that day and she was most definitely on a going day, after seeing his and her champion hurdle effort.

 

[Quevega]

Just saying what I heard him say.
Personally don’t give a flying fuck what he says, but others might.
I want her in the CH, big danger of a match without her, and a potential mismatch at that. And the 2miler against the stronger stayer adds intrigue for me with the difference in styles .

Yeah. if it happens it will be both a good race and a good betting market.
I'd be with the mare at the prices but would have the race as a close one, with him as slight favourite on normal ground.
Then Golden Ace will win