2025, The Odds on Offer

[Big Bucks]

Looks like a few ricks in the GC market to me.

How is Gerri Colombe 25/1? A few lengths second to the greatest we’ve seen for more than a decade. He ran to an RPR of 178 which would’ve been good enough to win the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 10 years. If anything were to happen to GDC, I’d have him as a marginal fav.

Fastorslow at 33/1 is just as perplexing. The only horse to win a race over fences is which GDC has also run realistically (sorry Bob) and he’s done it twice. Bumped JJ off far too early to know how he’d have fared but he didn’t get his ground this year either.

Good shout Re Gerri, he should be around 10/12s imo. That's a great price.

 

[Eggs]

….BDA NHC also 16-1 in Lads specials.

 

[Eggs]

….33-1 Stellar Story (BANC) with PP seems very big for an AB winner, only 12s with Hills/365 and 16s with Coral.

Surprised if that lasts very long.

….PP cut Stellar Story to 16-1, very surprised it lasted for that long.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've spent a while this morning putting together a load of combination multiples using El Fabiolo, Teahupoo and GDC as the backbone.

Those 3 as a treble are 80/1 with Hills (in from 90s) which seemed a nice starting point for next year's festival, and I've included them as various combinations with these below.

2/1 Constitution Hill
4/1 Fact To File
5/1 Lossimouth
10/1 Slade Steel
14/1 Romeo Coolio (Gallaghers)
16/1 Caldwell Potter
33/1 Montys Star
10/1 Gaelic Warrior (Ryanair)
20/1 Impaire Et Passe (Arkle & Turners)
25/1 Firefox (Turners)

 

[JackieMoon33]

I've spent a while this morning putting together a load of combination multiples using El Fabiolo, Teahupoo and GDC as the backbone.

Those 3 as a treble are 80/1 with Hills (in from 90s) which seemed a nice starting point for next year's festival, and I've included them as various combinations with these below.

2/1 Constitution Hill
4/1 Fact To File
5/1 Lossimouth
10/1 Slade Steel
14/1 Romeo Coolio (Gallaghers)
16/1 Caldwell Potter
33/1 Montys Star
10/1 Gaelic Warrior (Ryanair)
20/1 Impaire Et Passe (Arkle & Turners)
25/1 Firefox (Turners)

The Multi-Man never rests

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

The Multi-Man never rests

I'm trying to be more selective next year and I mostly only want horses where I think their targets are fairly obvious:emmersed:. Too many bets last year included Gaelic Warrior, hyped novice hurdlers, and Corbetts Cross:beaten:

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Inthepocket not bad value at 50s for CC

Guess could go Ryanair, but was being aimed at Arkle

 

[DenmanSacre]

Inthepocket not bad value at 50s for CC

Guess could go Ryanair, but was being aimed at Arkle

Still a novice so unless he wins this season, more likely to go the Arkle or Turners you'd think

 

[Quevega]

Inthepocket not bad value at 50s for CC

Guess could go Ryanair, but was being aimed at Arkle

still a novice at minute though

 

[JackieMoon33]

I'm trying to be more selective next year and I mostly only want horses where I think their targets are fairly obvious:emmersed:. Too many bets last year included Gaelic Warrior, hyped novice hurdlers, and Corbetts Cross:beaten:

Mine was an absolute car crash and possibly the worst year of my stupid ass strategy. The prices won’t be helped as Cheltenham talk has amplified on Twitter this year so it’s going to get harder. It’s almost all year round now and the fact so many horses already have prices is not going to help either.

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Still a novice so unless he wins this season, more likely to go the Arkle or Turners you'd think

Good point

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Mine was an absolute car crash and possibly the worst year of my stupid ass strategy. The prices won’t be helped as Cheltenham talk has amplified on Twitter this year so it’s going to get harder. It’s almost all year round now and the fact so many horses already have prices is not going to help either.

Agreed. It feels like the golden age of ante post punting has come to the end. There are some prices that entice me in but I'm having to back horses earlier and earlier each year. For example, the 4/1 that's available on Teahupoo will have almost certainly have disappeared in the next week or so. That price would have been available until Punch a few years ago, maybe even until late summer.

 

[SeanRock]

Salvador Mundi is far more appealing to me at 66/1 for the Gallagher than 33/1 for the Supreme, he’s bred to be a middle distance horse being a No Risk At All out of a Saint Des Saints mare.

He ran a nice enough race without really threatening for his first start Triumph staying on well from the back of the field in bottomless ground. Hopefully he’ll be put away for the season now with a view to next season.

 

[Eggs]

Salvador Mundi is far more appealing to me at 66/1 for the Gallagher than 33/1 for the Supreme, he’s bred to be a middle distance horse being a No Risk At All out of a Saint Des Saints mare.

He ran a nice enough race without really threatening for his first start Triumph staying on well from the back of the field in bottomless ground. Hopefully he’ll be put away for the season now with a view to next season.

….also an ‘eye catcher’ for ATR’s James Flaherty;

‘In the same contest, Salvator Mundi came into the race with a big reputation, representing the Sir Gino form line. This was his first start for Willie Mullins and it was a big ask going in against battle-hardened juveniles, even if he had the benefit of a run over hurdles in France. We have seen many times this season how the horses from Closutton were improving for their first run and while this stage of the season might be slightly different, there is no replacement for race fitness.

It was hugely promising then that he travelled into the race as well as he did, coming from well off the pace and catching the eye after the penultimate hurdle. He shaped like a horse that might well improve fitness-wise next time. He still wasn’t far away on the run to the final flight but faded up the hill to eventually finish a seventeen-length sixth. I think he is much better than that suggests.’
​

 

[Exar Essay]

Salvador Mundi is far more appealing to me at 66/1 for the Gallagher than 33/1 for the Supreme, he’s bred to be a middle distance horse being a No Risk At All out of a Saint Des Saints mare.

He ran a nice enough race without really threatening for his first start Triumph staying on well from the back of the field in bottomless ground. Hopefully he’ll be put away for the season now with a view to next season.

On the same note, I like Supersundae @ 100/1 for the same race. Willie has confirmed he wants a trip and that UK/Ire debut in the Supreme was fine (RPR 137). Willie has already nominated him as one for the novice hurdles next year too.

 

[Birds Nest]

Quite like the look of 33s PP for l'homme presse in the ryanair , he'll almost certainly get an entry, it was a toss up between the turners/browns a couple of years ago, charlie deutsch's remarks about not seeing it out in the gold out wasn't lost on me. You'll need a 170 horse to win the ryanair nxt year, with the gold cup 2025 potentially having 3 superstars in it, Gdc, f2f and il est f, i could see venetia opting for the ryanair, it wouldn't have been lost on her also that it was protekorat took the honours this year, the thursday race would be right up his street.

 

[Odin]

I'd just like to thank you all for ensuring that I've placed more on next year already than I intended to because such strong cases have been made for so many horses at good prices :cower::encouragement::applause:

 

[TigerRolllllll]

I'd just like to thank you all for ensuring that I've placed more on next year already than I intended to because such strong cases have been made for so many horses at good prices :cower::encouragement::applause:

Each year seem to need to get on earlier & earlier so I’m doing same

 

[Odin]

Each year seem to need to get on earlier & earlier so I’m doing same

Yeah it seems so, but I definitely feel there are more "good" prices this year than I remember in the last couple of years so I'm happy to take them whilst they are there and then hibernate through the summer as appropriate :encouragement:

 

[Leman14]

Everyone will be different, but from analysing my Antepost bets over the last few years - my most profitable periods are bets placed before the end of April and then from when NRNB kicks in.
I have profitable periods in between, but I seem to get suckered into FOMO from September to January and end up backing more horses than I need to, at prices that don't represent value.


Having said the that - I don't tend listen to my own advice and I'm sure that I'll do the same this year! :boxing: