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2025, The Odds on Offer

Exar Essay said:
Henry De Bromhead doesn't train his horses for bumpers. Instead, he uses them as a part of their education. Good N Kind has run to an RPR of 125 when finishing second to Por Joulain in that Gowran bumper, which is 4lb better than Slade Steel achieved last year. Connections think he lacks a gear and he certainly wasn't fully revved up for his debut. I think the 50/1 about him for the Ballymore next year is very fair.
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Nothing from that bumper, nor his points suggest he’s a Ballymore horse in my opinion. Yes he has the Bob Olinger colours and trainer but Henry has only pulled that off once. This lad looks a stayer.
 
Eggs said:
….Teahupoo 3-1 Stayers with PP.
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Think we need gordon to run him back as quick as possible and get beat so we can get a bigger price :biggrin-new:
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Nothing from that bumper, nor his points suggest he’s a Ballymore horse in my opinion. Yes he has the Bob Olinger colours and trainer but Henry has only pulled that off once. This lad looks a stayer.
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I’ve not seen his first PTP but after his second and before he was purchased by Robcour, I felt he had the class to run over shorter trips. And recent trends have taught me that classier horses are more likely to end up running on the Tuesday or Wednesday. The Ballymore is a punt and I’d bet him at similar odds with cash out for the Supreme too. He’d be one I’d cover any race if Hills offer 20/1 when they punlish their markets, but I was impressed.
 
William hill have Boosted Galopin Des Champ to 4-1 for the Gold Cup for those interested
 
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…Caldwell Potter into 16-1 BANC with PP.
 
Exar Essay said:
I’ve not seen his first PTP but after his second and before he was purchased by Robcour, I felt he had the class to run over shorter trips. And recent trends have taught me that classier horses are more likely to end up running on the Tuesday or Wednesday. The Ballymore is a punt and I’d bet him at similar odds with cash out for the Supreme too. He’d be one I’d cover any race if Hills offer 20/1 when they punlish their markets, but I was impressed.
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Unibet have 50s Gallagher
 
….33-1 Stellar Story (BANC) with PP seems very big for an AB winner, only 12s with Hills/365 and 16s with Coral.

Surprised if that lasts very long.
 
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I think William hill got stung by ballyburn as they've priced him up at 5/2 for the Browns!
 
Looks like a few ricks in the GC market to me.

How is Gerri Colombe 25/1? A few lengths second to the greatest we’ve seen for more than a decade. He ran to an RPR of 178 which would’ve been good enough to win the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 10 years. If anything were to happen to GDC, I’d have him as a marginal fav.

Fastorslow at 33/1 is just as perplexing. The only horse to win a race over fences is which GDC has also run realistically (sorry Bob) and he’s done it twice. Bumped JJ off far too early to know how he’d have fared but he didn’t get his ground this year either.
 
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Exar Essay said:
Looks like a few ricks in the GC market to me.

How is Gerri Colombe 25/1? A few lengths second to the greatest we’ve seen for more than a decade. He ran to an RPR of 178 which would’ve been good enough to win the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 10 years. If anything were to happen to GDC, I’d have him as a marginal fav.

Fastorslow at 33/1 is just as perplexing. The only horse to win a race over fences is which GDC has also run realistically (sorry Bob) and he’s done it twice. Bumped JJ off far too early to know how he’d have fared but he didn’t get his ground this year either.
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Fair, just quickly scanning market, could make a case for 7.
 
Exar Essay said:
Looks like a few ricks in the GC market to me.

How is Gerri Colombe 25/1? A few lengths second to the greatest we’ve seen for more than a decade. He ran to an RPR of 178 which would’ve been good enough to win the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 10 years. If anything were to happen to GDC, I’d have him as a marginal fav.

Fastorslow at 33/1 is just as perplexing. The only horse to win a race over fences is which GDC has also run realistically (sorry Bob) and he’s done it twice. Bumped JJ off far too early to know how he’d have fared but he didn’t get his ground this year either.
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Montys Star another at a huge price that has the potential to take a huge step forward next year, too.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Montys Star another at a huge price that has the potential to take a huge step forward next year, too.
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Agreed. I think Fact To File and Il Est Francais (and Grey Dawning to an extent) are underpriced and propping others up. Monkfish was the next big thing a few years back and was going into open company with a distinctly average bunch in retrospect. He was 4/1 after the BANC.

Fact To File is barely that now with one of the greats only turning 9 next year and plenty of other good ones the same age too. I appreciate that potential is being priced in, but FTF needs to improve 18lbs to beat GDC if he turns up in this years or last years form.

I thought about the market on this evenings dog walk and would have 8 main protagonists arranged in three groups as follows.

Galopin Des Champs
——————————-
Gerri Colombe
Fastorslow
Fact To File
Il Est Francais
——————————-
Montys Star
Grey Dawning
Corbetts Cross
 
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I know I'll est Francais was very impressive but one thing that always concerns me with French horses coming over here is the weight they have to carry.

Prior to Kempton the biggest weight IEF had carried was 10'10, and while he carried 11'7 on Boxing Day he a) will need to carry more and b) did that form not take a knock with Corbetts beating Killbeg King by 3 times the distance quite easily.

Not saying he isn't a potential weapon but for a general 8/1 shot (appreciate there is a smattering of 10s) that is worth noting for me.
 
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Exar Essay said:
Looks like a few ricks in the GC market to me.

How is Gerri Colombe 25/1? A few lengths second to the greatest we’ve seen for more than a decade. He ran to an RPR of 178 which would’ve been good enough to win the Gold Cup in 5 of the last 10 years. If anything were to happen to GDC, I’d have him as a marginal fav.

Fastorslow at 33/1 is just as perplexing. The only horse to win a race over fences is which GDC has also run realistically (sorry Bob) and he’s done it twice. Bumped JJ off far too early to know how he’d have fared but he didn’t get his ground this year either.
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…..25-1 GC does seem decent for Gerri. I still think 33-1 Stellar Story (BANC) is generous for an Elliott trained AB winner when he’s a general 12-1 elsewhere, I know it’s 12 months out but that’s an early e/w double for me, especially with cash-out options.

i’ll be interested in Better Days Ahead and Stellar Story when a firm put up NHC market.
 
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Eggs said:
…..25-1 GC does seem decent for Gerri. I still think 33-1 Stellar Story (BANC) is generous for an Elliott trained AB winner when he’s a general 12-1 elsewhere, I know it’s 12 months out but that’s an early e/w double for me, especially with cash-out options.

i’ll be interested in Better Days Ahead and Stellar Story when a firm put up NHC market.
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SS 10s and BDA 16s for the NH
 
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