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2025, The Odds on Offer

….agree with the thinking that the PP any race Specials are underwhelming, but on reflection the 10-1 Mystical Power might not be too bad considering he’s as low as 8-1 Arkle. By comparison, Sky offer 5-1 any race.
 
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…..Caldwell Potter any race 14-1 PP/BFSB.

Seems reasonable given he’s now a best price 16-1 for BANC & Turners.
 
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Eggs said:
…..Caldwell Potter any race 14-1 PP.

Seems reasonable given he’s now a best price 16-1 for BANC & Turners.
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Had a bit of that thanks for posting, could make a case for favouring either the turner's or banc so eliminate that headache, hopefully a good showing from him at Aintree
 
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Aye, Nicholls had winner in 2023 and a second this year in the Turners as well. No reason he wouldn't target it again. Plus Caldwell Potter never been further than 2 mile. Much better bet at 14s to cover any race than 16s for BANC.
 
Benjy23 said:
Aye, Nicholls had winner in 2023 and a second this year in the Turners as well. No reason he wouldn't target it again. Plus Caldwell Potter never been further than 2 mile. Much better bet at 14s to cover any race than 16s for BANC.
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…..might have to factor in Ballyburn if he goes Nov Chasing (maybe Turners) but i suppose that’s an advantage of any race.
 
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Think you also have to consider that neither horse are seen as Gold Cup horses, the 2 recent Turners runners that is. Nicholls traditionally sends his Gold Cup horses to the BANC and they’ve said as much about Caldwell Potter being a future Gold Cup horse. He may change and go Turners but why change what’s not broken.
 
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Craigy14 said:
Think you also have to consider that neither horse are seen as Gold Cup horses, the 2 recent Turners runners that is. Nicholls traditionally sends his Gold Cup horses to the BANC and they’ve said as much about Caldwell Potter being a future Gold Cup horse. He may change and go Turners but why change what’s not broken.
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Assume this is meant to be agreeing that the any price is the better bet rather than disagreeing? :beguiled:

So this is fairly irrelevant but anyway... I'm not sure it's a particularly recent successful trend for Nicholls that is it? Stay Away Fay could've been seen as a future Gold Cup horse that went BANC and wasn't particularly successful. Not many others I can think of. I'm reluctant to look back to the Denman years to see how Nicholls now trains tbh.

I'd also have BANC is the more likely target of the two. But if you're suggesting it's the bet aren't you pricing it at like 1/8 he ends up there? Not sure I'd have it that strong
 
If he's as low as 16s in any race, 14s TWAR is a fantastic price.
 
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CJW said:
If he's as low as 16s in any race, 14s TWAR is a fantastic price.
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….16s is the best price for either, he’s as low as 12-1 BANC with Sky.
 
Benjy23 said:
Stay Away Fay could've been seen as a future Gold Cup horse that went BANC and wasn't particularly successful.
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I'm probably in a minority of one here but I still think Stay Away Fay can make into a Gold Cup horse, I genuinely think the 100/1 quotes are an overreaction and he represents rare value in the AP markets.
I'm not convinced he would have been in love with the ground in his BANC, he lost a shoe and scoped dirty after the race.
I could be tempted into playing him now on the basis he could go to Aintree and win and that 100/1 becomes 25s, but I didn't pick up any post BANC comments about his plans, if he's put away for the year then there's no rush....
 
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Istabraq said:
I'm probably in a minority of one here but I still think Stay Away Fay can make into a Gold Cup horse, I genuinely think the 100/1 quotes are an overreaction and he represents rare value in the AP markets.
I'm not convinced he would have been in love with the ground in his BANC, he lost a shoe and scoped dirty after the race.
I could be tempted into playing him now on the basis he could go to Aintree and win and that 100/1 becomes 25s, but I didn't pick up any post BANC comments about his plans, if he's put away for the year then there's no rush....
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His BANC run can be ignored completely as he scoped dirty post race so if you're a book builder the 100/1 is a no brainer I'd say
 
Istabraq said:
I'm probably in a minority of one here but I still think Stay Away Fay can make into a Gold Cup horse, I genuinely think the 100/1 quotes are an overreaction and he represents rare value in the AP markets.
I'm not convinced he would have been in love with the ground in his BANC, he lost a shoe and scoped dirty after the race.
I could be tempted into playing him now on the basis he could go to Aintree and win and that 100/1 becomes 25s, but I didn't pick up any post BANC comments about his plans, if he's put away for the year then there's no rush....
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Aye, I'm not completely against him either. My point was that the BANC didn't go well. So it's not exactly a plan that's isn't broken... or whatever the statement was for Nicholls targeting the BANC.

Think the Gold Cup is more likely to suit SAF than the BANC was. And the excuses exist for that run being too bad to be true as well. Certainly wouldn't give up him. I just didn't want that to distract from the actual point :glee:
 
Benjy23 said:
Assume this is meant to be agreeing that the any price is the better bet rather than disagreeing? :beguiled:

So this is fairly irrelevant but anyway... I'm not sure it's a particularly recent successful trend for Nicholls that is it? Stay Away Fay could've been seen as a future Gold Cup horse that went BANC and wasn't particularly successful. Not many others I can think of. I'm reluctant to look back to the Denman years to see how Nicholls now trains tbh.

I'd also have BANC is the more likely target of the two. But if you're suggesting it's the bet aren't you pricing it at like 1/8 he ends up there? Not sure I'd have it that strong
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Well aye but most on here are on at at least 25/1+ so not really :biggrin-new:

It’s not just the success rate though it’s the way he campaigns his future Gold Cup horses. Bravemansgame, Topogthegame, Stay Away Fay. I didn’t say they had to win, what they did doesn’t affect Caldwell Potters chances does it, that’s just silly.
 
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….Caldwell Potter 10-1 any race (from 14-1) PP/BFSB, looking like FJs moved the market again.
 
Craigy14 said:
Well aye but most on here are on at at least 25/1+ so not really :biggrin-new:

It’s not just the success rate though it’s the way he campaigns his future Gold Cup horses. Bravemansgame, Topogthegame, Stay Away Fay. I didn’t say they had to win, what they did doesn’t affect Caldwell Potters chances does it, that’s just silly.
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Aftertiming a price that's gone is definitely irrelevant! :biggrin-new: The 14s or the 16s was the discussion, as best available at the time.

I'm not sure I follow the end of the second paragraph but fair play, let's move on. GL with the BANC bet regardless.
 
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