2025 Stayers Hurdle

[Deleted member 4957]

I think they've taken the form literally. 148 for Gowel Road. Monmiral finished nearly 3l back but carrying 4lb extra = a 1lb better performance = 149. Not that I agree with that rating ...

Clearly found a different rule book for the International Hurdle....

 

[Runragged]

Respect all opinions but if ye not with the fav then is it just not a case of trying to keep the thread alive with ifs buts and maybe’s? I watched last years race tonight and the fav made at least 4 errors and still won going away,am sorry but in the words of Willie himself GET STUCK IN!!

Or you can back a 20/1+ chance e/w and get more for your money coming 3rd than backing the favourite. Plus there is always the chance something goes wrong, either before or during the race.

 

[AaronLad]

https://m.attheraces.com/half-term-reports/half-term-report-stayers'-hurdle

obviously i would say this...
But I think this bloke has this spot on.
Well worth a read, if you haven't already.

 

[Evesham Road]

Just looking at the entries..... how many G1 animals are actually in this at the moment? 1?

Home By The Lee
Hewick (over fences)
Mystical Power (as a novice)
Crambo (Right handed?)
Stellar Story (as a novice and he's gone chasing)
Hewick (as a chaser)


There are others I'm getting bored looking ...... but imagine Teahupoo gets injured.... this becomes an absolute free-for-all :dejection: ... and that's before they supplement something mental




I do think if I was having a bet now, from scratch, I'd chance Home By The Lee at 15/2

I like AaronLad's enthusiasm for Lucky Place, but a future 3 time Stayers Hurdle winner, if you can't win a Coral Cup, is just not happening .... Langer Dan has him held for starters)

I did take the related double though the night before I asked if you liked it, hadn't seen you put up at 90/1 but impressive, I'm at at 67/1 :triumphant::culpability:





This race is wank :victorious:

Back to the point I was making when I started haha .... Is Home by The Lee just not the most rock solid? Actual grade 1 hurdler, at a fair price?

If you had to back 1 ..... Teahupoo to win or HBTL E/W?

So 1/4 for the place, for a horse which has placed once out of three previous Stayers Hurdle attempts? No thanks! If I'm backing something for the places in the Stayers then I'll wait until the week of the festival when I know the ground, likely pace angle and see what's available at a bookie probably offering four places, as a nice 33/1 or bigger poke. There's invariably at least one that price which places, sometimes more, and sometimes they win. This is not a race where we need to risk antepost to snag a good price.

I'm slightly struggling with the argument that the race is wide open behind Teahupoo but that the best bet is the shortest priced horse from the rest of the market...

 

[Kevloaf]

So 1/4 for the place, for a horse which has placed once out of three previous Stayers Hurdle attempts? No thanks! If I'm backing something for the places in the Stayers then I'll wait until the week of the festival when I know the ground, likely pace angle and see what's available at a bookie probably offering four places, as a nice 33/1 or bigger poke. There's invariably at least one that price which places, sometimes more, and sometimes they win. This is not a race where we need to risk antepost to snag a good price.

I'm slightly struggling with the argument that the race is wide open behind Teahupoo but that the best bet is the shortest priced horse from the rest of the market...

Haha a fair comment

I suppose I just see him as rock solid and everything else is just a chance ... unless Teahupoo comes out and things get supplemented for it is what I was trying to make out....

I wouldn't back either now ..... but it was my question :barbershop_quartet_member:




I see it as Teahupoo 1 ..... Home By The Lee 2 ..... and then a big gap to the rest

but if Teahupoo doesn't run, HBTL won't be as far clear as something will get supplemented to ruin it


So in hindsight, HBTL a rubbish bet now :loyal: :triumphant:


and also it's not impossible for anything to run well on the day .... Lisnager Oscar kind of thing :indecisiveness:

 

[DenmanSacre]

and also it's not impossible for anything to run well on the day .... Lisnager Oscar kind of thing :indecisiveness:

Sore Du Berlais 100s in the morning as well I think when he won it. Can be a funny race like the QMCC where form goes out the window on the day, or the good thing wins easy.

 

[AaronLad]

Hey Kevloaf

Did you know inglis drever before becoming a 3 time stayer hurdle winner, ran at the festival in the royal and sun alliance novice hurdle (now turners) and lost.

Did you also know before becoming a 4 time stayers hurdle winner big bucks lost in the 2m4f novice handicap chase, I know it wasn't a hurdle race but...

And also did you know before winning 2 stayers hurdles flooring porter was beaten in handicap hurdles off marks as low as 118

​Do you know what else these all had in common, apart from being multiple stayers hurdle winners?
They were all 6 years old when they won there first.
Same age as, yeah u know who.

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Out of interest aaron, what makes you so sure he will stay the trip in the Stayers? Whilst I do like the horse and he's clearly improving,10/1 looks a pretty poor price to me when you consider he's never even ran over the trip, never mind proven he can stay it!

 

[AaronLad]

Out of interest aaron, what makes you so sure he will stay the trip in the Stayers? Whilst I do like the horse and he's clearly improving,10/1 looks a pretty poor price to me when you consider he's never even ran over the trip, never mind proven he can stay it!

His relaxed racing style, the way he runs through the line in all his races its all characteristics I'd look for in a stayers hurdle contender.
He also has some half siblings which give encouragement.
But ive seen enough of him to know he'll stay.
Id be confident that nicky Henderson to be going straight there that they are confident, which is a good sign.
I also think the way the race could be run this year will really suit him, but that will be clearer festival week.

It wouldnt be a new thing for a stayers hurdle winner to be going over 3 miles for the first time. Inglis drever, more of that just 2 i can think of off the top of my head, so that doesnt concern me either.

I'm not suggesting him as a bet @10/1. (I suggested him at 33's)

When posts are made suggesting this race is a foregone conclusion, im simply giving my opinion and the horse i actually believe will win

 

[Can't Catch Me]

His relaxed racing style, the way he runs through the line in all his races its all characteristics I'd look for in a stayers hurdle contender.
He also has some half siblings which give encouragement.
But ive seen enough of him to know he'll stay.
Id be confident that nicky Henderson to be going straight there that they are confident, which is a good sign.
I also think the way the race could be run this year will really suit him, but that will be clearer festival week.

It wouldnt be a new thing for a stayers hurdle winner to be going over 3 miles for the first time. Inglis drever, more of that just 2 i can think of off the top of my head, so that doesnt concern me either.

I'm not suggesting him as a bet @10/1. (I suggested him at 33's)

When posts are made suggesting this race is a foregone conclusion, im simply giving my opinion and the horse i actually believe will win

Yeah fair enough. Im annoyed as I backed him at Ascot and actually toyed with backing him at 33/1 at the same time but left him alone. It was actually his breeding that put me off. Couldn't find anything to suggest he wanted the extra. But good luck! 33's clearly a great bet.

 

[Eggs]

….i’ve had a little interest in Franciscan Rock. The 50-1 NRNB with Hills is a bit of a stand-out, only 25-1 365.

Admittedly a bit of a cliff horse, ran well behind Langer Dan in last years Coral. I had him for the Pertemps after winning the Punchestown qualifier but his subsequent win since (ahead of Sandor) and recent close up 3rd in the Galmoy to Rocky’s Diamond has pushed his mark up considerably suggesting another Festival handicap was never the plan.

 

[Kevloaf]

Sore Du Berlais 100s in the morning as well I think when he won it. Can be a funny race like the QMCC where form goes out the window on the day, or the good thing wins easy.

I certainly do, one of my better posts :glee:

AaronLad ... right, I'm already on ... you've won :eagerness:

 

[Hurricane fly]

….i’ve had a little interest in Franciscan Rock. The 50-1 NRNB with Hills is a bit of a stand-out, only 25-1 365.

Admittedly a bit of a cliff horse, ran well behind Langer Dan in last years Coral. I had him for the Pertemps after winning the Punchestown qualifier but his subsequent win since (ahead of Sandor) and recent close up 3rd in the Galmoy to Rocky’s Diamond has pushed his mark up considerably suggesting another Festival handicap was never the plan.

I really like FR for the Pertemps, but as you say it seems he's possibly blown his mark - for all the right reasons to be fair.

Ive a couple of shekels at triple figures on the exchange to make up for it

 

[Quevega]

I really like FR for the Pertemps, but as you say it seems he's possibly blown his mark - for all the right reasons to be fair.

Ive a couple of shekels at triple figures on the exchange to make up for it

Mouse has a much better handicapped horse in the pertemps that's running this weekend I think.

 

[Liammet]

Mouse has a much better handicapped horse in the pertemps that's running this weekend I think.

Would he need to win at the weekend to get in Q ?

Or need The Wallpark to go to the Stayers

 

[Quevega]

Would he need to win at the weekend to get in Q ?

Or need The Wallpark to go to the Stayers

Doubt it.
I think the low mark will reduce a fair bit.
The first 4 qualify and some of the ratings of qualifiers are low, and the new novices 5 runs rule should mean most that want to run will get in.

Whatsavailable is rated 122 in IRE, and with a bit of UK tax should get in. IMO - but i'd go NRNB if he runs and is mid pack this weekend.

I've not backed yet as I'm going to watch this weekend, and then have a think.
There's a fair chance that 4 or 5 of the top rated ones take their chance in the stayers. But they could also all turn up.

He often leads but when he qualified he was held up just off the pace, the race he qualified in looks decent I reckon.
He was well beat by Franciscan but that was 12 days after a good win. probably excusable and he may have set too strong a pace.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Doubt it.
I think the low mark will reduce a fair bit.
The first 4 qualify and some of the ratings of qualifiers are low, and the new novices 5 runs rule should mean most that want to run will get in.

Whatsavailable is rated 122 in IRE, and with a bit of UK tax should get in. IMO - but i'd go NRNB if he runs and is mid pack this weekend.

I've not backed yet as I'm going to watch this weekend, and then have a think.
There's a fair chance that 4 or 5 of the top rated ones take their chance in the stayers. But they could also all turn up.

He often leads but when he qualified he was held up just off the pace, the race he qualified in looks decent I reckon.
He was well beat by Franciscan but that was 12 days after a good win. probably excusable and he may have set too strong a pace.

He qualified in his last race, which I believe from Saxs stats, is THE key best race trend for the Pertemps

 

[Quevega]

He qualified in his last race, which I believe from Saxs stats, is THE key best race trend for the Pertemps

Yep, I know. :encouragement:
The first part of what I said is regarding the lower amount of qualifiers overall these days - and his chances of getting in the declarations. If entered.

 

[Killiney]

Yep, I know. :encouragement:
The first part of what I said is regarding the lower amount of qualifiers overall these days - and his chances of getting in the declarations. If entered.

Don’t forget that all winners of qualifiers automatically get a run. So this may lead to more horses with rating below the previous ‘bottom’ getting in. I don’t think there will be many but it is something to be aware of.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

14 qualifying races means the max number of qualified horses is 56, take into account injuries, ground, handicap, alternative targets and of course the difficulties placed on getting a novice qualified and there's every chance the field is again under subscribed.

Edit - there are two qualifiers in Ireland that aren't showing on the BHA site so max 64 qualifiers....