2025 Champion Chase

[Eggs]

Stable tours might tell us a bit more about targets.

 

[Monty's Pass]

Tend not to back e/w at this early stage but I've had a dabble on Marine Nationale ​​​at 14's with cashout. Having to take Barry's word that there's no ongoing issue and he's back to somewhere near his best so It will be interesting to see if the tongue tie goes on first time out this season and where they start him off.

Jonbon proven himself in open company and his beating of El Fabiolo at Sandown must have quashed any serious thought of stepping up in trip this coming season. He is short though and certainly not unbeatable.

Of the Mulins horses in the market, IL Etait Temps likliest to go to the Ryanair of the four. Energumene having questions to answer back from injury as to whether he retains his ability and if he can make it to the festival sound. That leaves Gaelic and El Fabiolo both of whom seem to divide opinion regarding their festival targets and both not bombproof in the jumping department. Obviously all ahead of Marine on form and ratings etc but if Barry can find him a confidence boosting 'freebie' before Xmas and DRF then he'll quickly become single figures and if we see another small field Champion Chase he could be a bit of e/w value prior to his seasonal debut, not one to get stuck into before seeing him out but as I say I've had a small e/w and that's my only bet in the race so far.

 

[BigChaang]

Jonbon staying down the 2 mile chasing route .. Racing Post today ..
Nicky say's Shloer chase , Tingle creek , Clarence House and Champion Chase is the planned route for Jonbon .

 

[charlie]

Jonbon staying down the 2 mile chasing route .. Racing Post today ..
Nicky say's Shloer chase , Tingle creek , Clarence House and Champion Chase is the planned route for Jonbon .

Id have liked to see him step up but no surprise from Nicky there. Jonbon is short at 4/1, but, what are we going to learn between now and march? The 2m division over here looks weak as piss so Im expecting easy wins in small fields. I don't think that prep does him any favours with a view to Cheltenham and I dont think it's a course that sees him to best effect like Sandown or Aintree. GW and EF at 5/1 and 6/1 are also short but more interesting than Jonbon IMO. The former was a very good Arkle winner but I do think EF has been more consistent over the course of his career. If I had to back one I'd probably go with EF at 6/1 but I also think the GW/EF QMCC/Ryanair double is worth a poke. I like MN but cant back a horse who has missed the season. There isn't much else in that market that interests me even now but hoping that changes and we have a more competitive 2m division.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Id have liked to see him step up but no surprise from Nicky there. Jonbon is short at 4/1, but, what are we going to learn between now and march? The 2m division over here looks weak as piss so Im expecting easy wins in small fields. I don't think that prep does him any favours with a view to Cheltenham and I dont think it's a course that sees him to best effect like Sandown or Aintree. GW and EF at 5/1 and 6/1 are also short but more interesting than Jonbon IMO. The former was a very good Arkle winner but I do think EF has been more consistent over the course of his career. If I had to back one I'd probably go with EF at 6/1 but I also think the GW/EF QMCC/Ryanair double is worth a poke. I like MN but cant back a horse who has missed the season. There isn't much else in that market that interests me even now but hoping that changes and we have a more competitive 2m division.

I think it’s a fair point re Jonbon and Cheltenham.
Yes he’s ran some good races there and won there, but he does look happier to me on a flat track.
Having said that the way the season ended and EF showing vulnerability, Energ coming back from injury, it’s not difficult to see why J is the price he is.
I always say the Arkle winner should go CC, and i really think GW will go here, even if the others do as well, although I suspect either EF or E will be in Ryanair.
If it was down to me EF would definitely be going CC, he’s already proven what he can do and would be sacrilege to be see him in the Ryanair imo.
Plus I want the J v EF build up again!!
Bit of fun

 

[Monty's Pass]

I think it’s a fair point re Jonbon and Cheltenham.
Yes he’s ran some good races there and won there, but he does look happier to me on a flat track.
Having said that the way the season ended and EF showing vulnerability, Energ coming back from injury, it’s not difficult to see why J is the price he is.
I always say the Arkle winner should go CC, and i really think GW will go here, even if the others do as well, although I suspect either EF or E will be in Ryanair.
If it was down to me EF would definitely be going CC, he’s already proven what he can do and would be sacrilege to be see him in the Ryanair imo.
Plus I want the J v EF build up again!!
Bit of fun

Hard to call targets at this stage but I do think Gaelic Warrior will go Champ Chase and therfore I'd much rather have the 5/1 over El Fabiolo similar price and Jonbon shorter. As you say Arkle winners should go here and have a great record.

I remember watching a cheltenham review shortly after the festival where Ruby was asked about what changed between Leopardstown and Cheltenham and he said something along the lines of it being David Casey who wanted him to go that trip for a long time as he thought Gaelic was the fastest 2 miler they had plus they obviously put a lot of work into him and the hood helped with keeping him straight and his violently jumping right seems to have been trained out of him or that and a combination of maturing with experience.

I don't think El Fabiolo will be targeted elsewhere yet on the back of two dissapointing races but he'll have to bounce back and go foot perfect otherwise he might be the one the goes up in trip of the two.

 

[charlie]

I think it’s a fair point re Jonbon and Cheltenham.
Yes he’s ran some good races there and won there, but he does look happier to me on a flat track.
Having said that the way the season ended and EF showing vulnerability, Energ coming back from injury, it’s not difficult to see why J is the price he is.
I always say the Arkle winner should go CC, and i really think GW will go here, even if the others do as well, although I suspect either EF or E will be in Ryanair.
If it was down to me EF would definitely be going CC, he’s already proven what he can do and would be sacrilege to be see him in the Ryanair imo.
Plus I want the J v EF build up again!!
Bit of fun

How did I know you'd be the first responder to a post re Jonbon :applouse:

Aye, he's a flat track small field specialist who looks pretty much unbeatable this side of the Irish Sea under those circumstances.

He's no Paul Nicholls but its not beyond the realms of possibility Nicky found a reason to wait for Aintree either IMO (but appreciate very unlikely)

I am totally with you tho. Love the build up and Jonbon v EF v GW would be some race. We deserve a top drawer QMCC.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

How did I know you'd be the first responder to a post re Jonbon :applouse:

Aye, he's a flat track small field specialist who looks pretty much unbeatable this side of the Irish Sea under those circumstances.

He's no Paul Nicholls but its not beyond the realms of possibility Nicky found a reason to wait for Aintree either IMO (but appreciate very unlikely)

I am totally with you tho. Love the build up and Jonbon v EF v GW would be some race. We deserve a top drawer QMCC.

Hahaha
Any mention of Jonbon does get my ears pricked I must admit
Its a funny thing with him in some ways
Hes never been out the first two in a lot of top race’s so obviously very good.
Hes pretty good at Sandown which is far from a flat track, but it is right handed. Then again he was good at Aintree which is flat and left handed, and imo not quite as good at Cheltenham, but that’s left handed and not flat.
Maybe the undulations?
Personally I would stick to the opinion that at Cheltenham in March when the opposition is at its best,he’s more likely to get beat than facing same opposition elsewhere later or earlier in the season.
Another thing that I keep thinking……Hendo wanted to step him up and imo that’s because he knows he stays further and I think he sees him as a possible KG horse,plus deep down he weren’t sure he could beat the top Irish over 2m at the festival.
Hes beat a good field over two and half so would certainly figure in a Ryanair, and I think that was the original thought for this season, but the Sandown race has altered things.

 

[Spectre]

The point about having a really good Champion Chase is a really good one. Bad luck has seen so many horses not make the race, and obviously we had El Fab forget he has to jump fences rather than walk through them last season, and Jonbon was absent with a sick note. The net result has been we haven't had a good one for a few years.

This year though could be a real cracker if they all line up, and I just hope they do and we're treated to a spectacle.

 

[BigL]

Gaelic warrior should hack up against these lot. Jonbon is good but is a second horse. Energumebe is 11 and has been off a year. El Fabiolo goes ryanair....


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[Frankely My Dear]

Gaelic warrior should hack up against these lot. Jonbon is good but is a second horse. Energumebe is 11 and has been off a year. El Fabiolo goes ryanair....


​

You sound very certain about El Fabiolo, what's your reasoning? Stat-wise if he goes I think he has a good chance so I have him in side but I'm in no way certain as to his target. Need to see how he is when he emerges imo

 

[opatcho]

Can’t believe how quickly El Fab has fallen down the pecking order for some folks

was not that long ago when he won one of the most competitive Arkles, and was running well heading into the QM

all of a sudden, Gaelic Warrior is shorter than him! Jonbon who appears to go through a sticky patch in Jan-feb is fav

That Arkle last season was pants

 

[Frankely My Dear]

I get that but it was a pretty big error and it exposed his jumping for a future of winning another Champion Chase. From my perspective I just had to cover the possibility of him moving on to the Ryanair. I don't fancy Jonbon for the CC so I don't consider him a worthy favourite and GW is a fucking nightmare for AP betting

 

[charlie]

Can’t believe how quickly El Fab has fallen down the pecking order for some folks

was not that long ago when he won one of the most competitive Arkles, and was running well heading into the QM

all of a sudden, Gaelic Warrior is shorter than him! Jonbon who appears to go through a sticky patch in Jan-feb is fav

That Arkle last season was pants

Yeh 6/1 could look massive.

Jonbon is a false fav IMO because he doesn't run to his best at Cheltenham. He was a fresh horse at Sandown and he loves it there.

If Willie can put last season behind him and he can run to his rating of 175 then he is the one to beat IMO

 

[Yosser]

Wondered why El Fabiolo had a haircut for the Ryanair. Then I saw this topic. :welcoming:

I don't see him stepping up to 2m 5f. He could because he is trained by Willie Mullins but for me he is an out and out 2 miler. He goes too quick for his own feet sometimes. If they can't settle him for over 2 miles I'd be happy to take him on over 2m 5f because he would run his race before it was over. Garlic Warrior is the obvious one of the two to step up and even Enurgemene the way he settles into his races and at 11 years old I would even argue that the Ryanair is the race he should be going for anyway but with his history I can't see anything but another champion chase bid. Stable tour will be very interesting regarding these 3 because they could all go for anything.

 

[Wayward Lad]

Completely agree Yosser

I just don’t see the case for stepping him up as - he is the top rated 2m chaser (RPR 6lbs clear), beat the current Fav, Jonbon in the 2023 Arkle by 5 lengths when fav to do so, was 2/9 fav to wins last years Champ Chase, has never run over further than 2m 2f in his life. Jonbon will be 9 next year, whereas El Fabiola will be 8 and Gaelic Warrior 7. So El Fabiolas profile looks good, they just need to get David Casey schooling him plenty and the Champ Chase it is.

Yes he has fluffed his lines last year with sloppy jumping and has always thrown in a howler even in his Arkle year - and got beat 4l by Jonbon at Sandown at the end of year. But he was odds on to beat Jonbon at Sandown and RPR ratings suggest he did not run to form and Jonbon did.

Many here on the Forum think last years Arkle wasn’t full of quality, so it’s not like there are many younger horses challenging for the 2m crown, even if Gaelic Warrior could well improve (RPR 172).

I’d also argue that such a speedy horse over 2m may well struggle to get a fast run 2m 5f around Cheltenham and Willie has a few others he may target the Ryanair with ie I’ll Est Temps and Grangeclare West.

If El Fab could jump then he’d be 5/2 to win the 2024 Champ Chase

 

[Garrison Savannah]

El Fab is a natural 2 miler to my eye and we know Willie likes a little redemption so I think they’ll be a bit of unfinished business going on…El Fab is a cracking price for the QMCC.

If you’re not already on, now is the time to get on before Willie name checks the race in the forthcoming stable tours.

All IMHO of course.

 

[Lobos]

Gaelic will target the Champion Chase without a doubt. Willie was chuffed to bits getting it right by dropping him down to 2m for the Arkle and then him running away with the race. Gaelic absolutely loved the trip and track and didn't lug to his right one bit. He'll not step him back up again around Cheltenham unless the horse tells him to. No reason why Willie won't run several in the race as he has plenty of others to mess about with in the Ryanair.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I agree that Willie may target the Champ Chase with both Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiola, however I have mental block when it comes to Gaelic and can’t bring myself to back him as last year I felt ‘put away’ by connections with ‘stayers hurdle this year chasing next year’ the. ‘see him as a staying chaser’ etc - I backed him for the Stayers (he was fav), I then backed him for the BANC (he was fav) which is where I thought he’d go, then followed the herd backing him for the Turners . Needless to say I didn’t back him for the Arkle! as I felt burnt ala Vautour for the Gold Cup etc ……not that I am bitter, honestly !

 

[Lobos]

You weren't on your own WL. Think everyone on here pumped plenty of points on him for all the wrong races. Proper forum cliff horse over the years.