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2025 Champion Chase

Granted everyone gets there fit and well then I expect El Fab will go Champion Chase and I expect he will start much shorter than the 6/1 having been given somewhat of a cautious prep. However, I will happily bet against him that his jumping won't hold up against other top class 2m chasers.
 
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Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race
 
robith said:
Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race
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I'd say that's a pretty damn good ratio. I bet a fair few have been placed as well ?
 
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Yes, that's a good hit rate. Or to put it another way, backing last year's Arkle winner blindly at 5-2 to win the Champion Chase, would have made a profit.
 
Sorry guys, it's actually 2/10, I was getting my Sprinter Sacre's mixed up.

Level stakes on the last 10 arkle winners would net you 0.5 profit over 10 years at SP and most of that was PTKO
 
robith said:
Arkle to CC record is patchy too - last ten runnings, only 3 Arkle winners have followed up in the championship race
Click to expand...

I backed PTKO on the strength of the trend of Arkle horses following up in Open company so if it's a patchy record think that must be a very modern trend.
The Champion Chaser has a numebr of multiple winners which is probably why the record won't read well, Altior, Sptinter, Master Minded, Energumene all duel winners in the last 15 years
The other things is the race has suffered from notable absentees, not sure how many of these have been Arkle winners (if any) but for a while it seemed every short priced fav was doomed to make the race....
 
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Yes, tis a modern trend. Go back over the years and many have doubled up. One of my go to stats.
 
Istabraq said:
I backed PTKO on the strength of the trend of Arkle horses following up in Open company so if it's a patchy record think that must be a very modern trend.
The Champion Chaser has a numebr of multiple winners which is probably why the record won't read well, Altior, Sptinter, Master Minded, Energumene all duel winners in the last 15 years
The other things is the race has suffered from notable absentees, not sure how many of these have been Arkle winners (if any) but for a while it seemed every short priced fav was doomed to make the race....
Click to expand...

Even if it's 3 wins in 10 (and for various reasons the other 7 didn't make it to the race, (or were beaten in it) that's a great conversion rate.

That's little over 2/1, say 9/4, that the Arkle-QMCC has been done in the last decade.

Obvs those that backed PTKO at 33s opening show for QMCC are well in profit for that double trend.

GW around 5/1, represents fair value, for the race this season, given the way he won the Arkle.
 
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Anyone else hear the rumour El Fabio wont be seen until the new year?
 
darlojim said:
was a bit wobbly on the BFX but didn't hear that specifically, where did u hear this?
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in one jump ahead there's a line about gaelic warrior being the main champion chase hope with el fabiolo 'sidelined'
 
fatherjohn said:
in one jump ahead there's a line about gaelic warrior being the main champion chase hope with el fabiolo 'sidelined'
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Absolute madness. We’ve all got the book and missed this! That’s what it says alright.

Also, how have the racing ‘media’ not picked up on it?
 
Genuinely flabbergasted. Depending on the injury, i would still be pretty sweet on him with a good prep run under his belt. Not backed Gaelic Warrior for the CC but am happy to see how the season plays out a bit first. I want to see GW tested again like he was with Fact To File when he folded against decent opposition then make a decision. 2 miles against proper grade 1 horses. I think he comes unstuck.
 
Nice opportunity to back some against EF before the bookies react.

Shame we can't get that mole into Willies Man shed.
 
Exar Essay said:
Absolute madness. We’ve all got the book and missed this! That’s what it says alright.

Also, how have the racing ‘media’ not picked up on it?
Click to expand...

Someone email him see if he replies with any details
 
Exar Essay said:
Absolute madness. We’ve all got the book and missed this! That’s what it says alright.

Also, how have the racing ‘media’ not picked up on it?
Click to expand...

:biggrin-new::biggrin-new::biggrin-new:

Half of you can't read I expect. Just look at the pictures...
 
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