2024 Stayers Hurdle

[AaronLad]

The Stayers hurdle is looking like a wide open market and this race does have a bit of a habit of unearthing a rapid improver over the course of the season. Let’s have a quick look back at some of the winners in the last 5 years.

In 2021 Flooring porter won the stayers hurdle, his season started back in july 2020 with a rating of 122.

2020, lisnagar oscar won with his season beginning over fences, before going back to hurdles in nov 2019 with a rating of 141.

2019, Paisley park won , his season started off in oct 2018 with a rating of 140.


Paisley park started his season in the 2m4f hurdle at aintree which was run yesterday and won by Crambo, off a rating of 133. Paisley park won it in 2018 off 140.

Crambo had a mixed novice season, when tried at the top level over 2m4f he was probably out of his depth.

He did however pick up a nice pot, the ebf hurdle final at sandown over 2m4f, in pretty heavy going, pulling out more at the end of a gruelling contest to just get up from inneston.

He’s yet to be tried over 3m, and to me this is where he will become grade 1 level.

His pedigree is full of stamina, a son of saddler maker, out of a martaline mare.


I expect his next stop will be the betfair exchange stayers handicap hurdle at haydock towards the end of november, a first try at 3miles. I will surely be keeping a close eye on this horse.
​

 

[Runragged]

The Stayers hurdle is looking like a wide open market and this race does have a bit of a habit of unearthing a rapid improver over the course of the season.

​

I am always on the look out for a Stayer who has gained significant race experience in handicaps. The last 5 winners had all raced previously in handicaps, Paisley Park, Lisnagar Oscar and Flooring Porter (First Time) all in the same season whilst Flooring Porter (2nd Time) and Sire du Berlais had raced in a handicap the previous season.

Prior to that Penhill was an exception but then he had raced 13 times in flat handicaps. Nichols Canyon had also gained vast racing experience on the flat including a couple of handicaps when trained by John Gosden.

Certainly worth looking for improving horses in the shape of Paisley Park and Flooring Porter in handicaps over the course of the season.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Paisley park started his season in the 2m4f hurdle at aintree which was run yesterday and won by Crambo, off a rating of 133. Paisley park won it in 2018 off 140.

Crambo had a mixed novice season, when tried at the top level over 2m4f he was probably out of his depth.

He did however pick up a nice pot, the ebf hurdle final at sandown over 2m4f, in pretty heavy going, pulling out more at the end of a gruelling contest to just get up from inneston.

He’s yet to be tried over 3m, and to me this is where he will become grade 1 level.

His pedigree is full of stamina, a son of saddler maker, out of a martaline mare.


I expect his next stop will be the betfair exchange stayers handicap hurdle at haydock towards the end of november, a first try at 3miles. I will surely be keeping a close eye on this horse.
​

A fair amount I agree with about your post, but the key thing for me, which you note, is that he was out of his depth at the top level, and this was only in novice company, he's now got to venture out into open company, which can be a fair bit harder.

I think you're bang on about the 3m thing, I think a step up in trip will bring about improvement, but I think he's more likely a candidate for something like the Pertemps, over the Stayers. Imperial Alcazar route, I suspect, like you say, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Haydock the next stop for him.

With regards to the Aintree race from the weekend, Paisley Park aside, you'd struggle to find anything else that has won the race that has achieved anything of note. PP was very much the diamond in the rough when looking back at past winners of that race.

 

[AaronLad]

A fair amount I agree with about your post, but the key thing for me, which you note, is that he was out of his depth at the top level, and this was only in novice company, he's now got to venture out into open company, which can be a fair bit harder.

I think you're bang on about the 3m thing, I think a step up in trip will bring about improvement, but I think he's more likely a candidate for something like the Pertemps, over the Stayers. Imperial Alcazar route, I suspect, like you say, the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle at Haydock the next stop for him.

With regards to the Aintree race from the weekend, Paisley Park aside, you'd struggle to find anything else that has won the race that has achieved anything of note. PP was very much the diamond in the rough when looking back at past winners of that race.

completely fair reply and is probably more likely than my hopes for him.
He's currently one for the tracker for me, and if lining up at haydock would be very much of interest to me for that day.
There's a lot to like about him, his win at sandown came with him making most of the running on heavy going in a hot novice handicap which would've featured similiarly well handicapped horses, he ate the sandown hill up.
I'm not suggesting him as a bet at this stage for any race, but he's one i'm keen to see how much he can improve.

 

[Fouroverthrutwo]

A fair amount I agree with about your post, but the key thing for me, which you note, is that he was out of his depth at the top level, and this was only in novice company, he's now got to venture out into open company, which can be a fair bit harder.

I think there were genuine reasons why he didn't really figure in the graded races. The Challow at Newbury was run on dreadful, bottomless ground and only a few horses handled it. If you watch the Aintree race back, he got shuffled back when trying to get in the race and when Connor Brace tried to regain his position he was nearly brought down by Rachel Blackmore's mount. The jockey did well to stay onboard but by this time, the leaders had made their move and were well clear.

Fergal O'Brien has always thought he was a graded horse and Plan A would be to go for graded races later in the season. He has said that the handicap at Haydock would be his next port of call and if he runs well, he will target the better races. He also said that if he gets well beaten then he will revert to Plan B and try and qualify for The Pertemps final by running in a qualifier at Warwick.

 

[Birds Nest]

Dont know if this quote has been mentioned but its the latest one dated 12th october regarding theleme
Taken from the Galopeurs forum.

Bertrand Le M?tayer (representative of JDG Bloodstock Services), told the JDG before the ​

2023 Prix Carmarthen

(Gr3, hurdles, Auteuil, Oct. 12): “We can't wait to see ​

Th?l?me

make his comeback. He must follow the same program as last fall. The fact remains that the weather conditions seem a little worrying to us... Normally, he will race, but we will take the weather conditions very seriously on the day. After the ​

Autumn Grand Prix

(Gr1), his objective is to go probably directly to Cheltenham for the ​

Stayer's Hurdle

(Gr1). ?​

​

 

[Zachx02]

Dont know if this quote has been mentioned but its the latest one dated 12th october regarding theleme
Taken from the Galopeurs forum.

Bertrand Le M?tayer (representative of JDG Bloodstock Services), told the JDG before the ​

2023 Prix Carmarthen

(Gr3, hurdles, Auteuil, Oct. 12): “We can't wait to see ​

Th?l?me

make his comeback. He must follow the same program as last fall. The fact remains that the weather conditions seem a little worrying to us... Normally, he will race, but we will take the weather conditions very seriously on the day. After the ​

Autumn Grand Prix

(Gr1), his objective is to go probably directly to Cheltenham for the ​

Stayer's Hurdle

(Gr1). ?​

​

All aboard the theleme express:barbershop_quartet_member:

 

[Lobos]

Cheers BN.

It's the 'probably' bit that puts me off. Same old thing with the French. Plus I would rather see him come over for the Cleeve for a test run at the course and see how the French form matches up. I'd say his price will hold anyway so no need to jump in now. Best to wait and see how his prep goes and whether he actually gets a Stayers entry.

 

[Birds Nest]

Cheers BN.

It's the 'probably' bit that puts me off. Same old thing with the French. Plus I would rather see him come over for the Cleeve for a test run at the course and see how the French form matches up. I'd say his price will hold anyway so no need to jump in now. Best to wait and see how his prep goes and whether he actually gets a Stayers entry.

Yes absolutely. Its always hard with a translated script but i just wonder wether that probably refers to him going direct or with another prep, he talked last year about learning that the horse ideally wants 2 preps before his target race which would tie in with the autumn grand prix then directly to chelts bit. As ever though i suppose we've all been bitten with these french stayers and promises of chelts stayers b4, but at least a targets been memtioned which is all you could hope in regards to ante post i suppose. And your right the price should hold so no rush..

 

[opatcho]

Thing we’re going to see a AB or Pertemps/handicapper horse come through to win this

the AB was a good starting point a few years back with the likes of Paisley Park, Penhill, Lisnagar Oscar… thyme hill finished second to flooring porter. Alpha Des Obeax seemed to bypass the fez but ran in the grade 1 3m novice hurdle at aintree before coming second to thistlecrack

At fisher cross won AB, placed in stayers behind More of That and Annie.

I’ll be keeping a eye on those from this years AB that remain over hurdles. Absolute Nations appears to be staying over hurdles. A fair few horses that ran in AB have already won over fences - early days and different discipline but nice to see winners building up from a race

I don’t think the winner of this years stayers has been mentioned at all or much at all, they are lingering at double figures or not even priced up yet

really looking forward to this one, and as it stands I’m in the mind set of taking

 

[TigerRolllllll]

Gordon said one more hurdles run then go chasing with him in the stable tour …..so maybe caution

 

[Studfarm254]

Watched the stayers hurdle back and can’t believe I’m saying this but I’ve just backed home by the lee. He made a really bad error knocking him back a few lengths about half way through the race. Then look at how wide he jumps 2 out, then between the 2nd last and last hurdle he was building up momentum and had to slow as he was about to run into porters jam roll. Fairly tanked up the hill all things considering, was some effort to finish as close as he did

 

[Frankely My Dear]

I think it's a fair shout and I backed him too a while ago as I believe he is a strong stayer and with a clear round should be up there at the end. Like you say, his tanking up the hill is a big positive, just need to jump a bit cleaner. Need a decent jockey on board

 

[Kevloaf]

Watched the stayers hurdle back and can’t believe I’m saying this but I’ve just backed home by the lee. He made a really bad error knocking him back a few lengths about half way through the race. Then look at how wide he jumps 2 out, then between the 2nd last and last hurdle he was building up momentum and had to slow as he was about to run into porters jam roll. Fairly tanked up the hill all things considering, was some effort to finish as close as he did

Having not won it twice, and being a bit 'unfasionable' he's one of them that might not gain a lot of ante post momentum even if he does well?

If he went in to the race on the same form as last year, I think you'd get bigger than the 9/1 he was .... but quite significantly bigger?

At 25/1 now how much do we think he'll shorten?

Definitely the kind of horse that will be on the radar if wildly overlooked, not sure 25/1 is wildly overlooked before we see him again.

One of those I can see being shorter during the season but can also see being twice the price, or same on the day.

Just watched it back too and agree he's unlucky in it.

 

[Studfarm254]

Having not won it twice, and being a bit 'unfasionable' he's one of them that might not gain a lot of ante post momentum even if he does well?

If he went in to the race on the same form as last year, I think you'd get bigger than the 9/1 he was .... but quite significantly bigger?

At 25/1 now how much do we think he'll shorten?

Definitely the kind of horse that will be on the radar if wildly overlooked, not sure 25/1 is wildly overlooked before we see him again.

One of those I can see being shorter during the season but can also see being twice the price, or same on the day.

Just watched it back too and agree he's unlucky in it.

He’s pretty consistent over hurdles nowadays, easy to forgive that run at aintree after Cheltenham. Plus don’t think the better ground flat track is really his bag. Can’t see him going off that short again agreed but doubt you’ll get much bigger that 25s. I’ve only had a small bet on him atm, I could go in again later in season depending how the race is shaping up.

 

[Kevloaf]

He’s pretty consistent over hurdles nowadays, easy to forgive that run at aintree after Cheltenham. Plus don’t think the better ground flat track is really his bag. Can’t see him going off that short again agreed but doubt you’ll get much bigger that 25s. I’ve only had a small bet on him atm, I could go in again later in season depending how the race is shaping up.

Yeah, all fair.

Suppose it's just how much shorter.

I always harp back to horses that are 25/1 and go off fav (Unowhatimeanharry and Sam Spinner ring a bell for that in this race) and there just isn't a post of me that sees him go off single figures or near fav?

That's me being greedy though... it
if we remember we should monitor his price as he'll be a great example to hark back to fit future similar situations!

 

[opatcho]

Home by the Lee was my pick on the day. They seemed to work him out by running wide and giving him some space. With the pace and the going being soft, I really thought it would be his day

but as someone mentioned a few days before, really need a horse that can travel down those hills, home by the Lee just doesn’t have that tactical speed to hang on, and then has too much to do

yeah, that mistake was noticeable

but for me, been there too many times now. No flooring porter to set the pace

can see why people would back him now at the bigger price but I really do think the winner this year will be a horse that didn’t run in last years renewal

 

[opatcho]

Whilst I’m here

Final Orders? Gavin C knows a thing or two about getting a handicapper to improve 20-30 lbs

feels like they’ll exhaust his chase mark, think he has 1-2 runs in him before making a charge over handicap hurdles

Horse just has the 48 runs under his name… lol just throwing it out there

 

[FinalFurlong91]

Whilst I’m here

Final Orders? Gavin C knows a thing or two about getting a handicapper to improve 20-30 lbs

feels like they’ll exhaust his chase mark, think he has 1-2 runs in him before making a charge over handicap hurdles

Horse just has the 48 runs under his name… lol just throwing it out there

I'm all for thinking outside the box

But to paraphrase friends

You're so far away from the box, you can't even see the box

The box is a dot to you

 

[Quevega]

Last years renewal looks shitty and messy from a form perspective.
Trainers and owners will have clocked this for sure.
I'll be amazed if there is not at least one or two or more entries from left field this season.
Mullins has several just on his own.
It's a no go market for me at this stage as the prices do not reflect the true level of competition the horses at the current head of the market might face.
The NRNB market will be of much more interest to me.