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2024 Ryanair Chase

FinalFurlong91 said:
What other open company grade 1 chase only requires a 165-168 performance to win?

if allaho retains his enthusiasm and stays sound what beats him?

If he was 3/1 I'd be dead against him but at 6s the worries are more than factored into the price
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Well loads of horses could beat him, 75% of 177 OR is 133 though mate

133 won't win a Ryanair.


He'd need to come back at 90% to get an OR of 159
 
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BuckingThe Trend said:
In my opinion if Allaho comes back tomorrow at 75% the horse he was when winning this race in 2022 then he wins the Ryanair in 2024. OR 177 ad RPR 180. Nothing else comes even close. 10 years old yeah but he is so so much better than any other horse being talked about. Even Jonbon. Sit and wait would be my advice.
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75% of OR 177 is an OR of 133

So he won't be winning at 75% of the horse he was :devilish::loyal:
 
Kevloaf said:
Well loads of horses could beat him, 75% of 177 OR is 132 though mate

131 won't win a Ryanair.
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Maths is maths but I'm sure you'll allow buckingthetrend some hyperbole

You now what he was getting at
 
Kevloaf said:
75% of OR 177 is an OR of 133

So he won't be winning at 75% of the horse he was :devilish::loyal:
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Fair cop. Kevloaf you are mathematically correct. For 75% read "he just needs to be fit and won't need to be at his brilliant 2021/2022 best to win this years Ryanair". He'll be 10 in March so won't be as good as his previous wins but if he is fit he should win this in a canter. For the record that's hyperbole Kevloaf. He won't actually win if he canters.

Apologies if my hyperbolic statement caused you hours of stress. :smile-new::smile-new::smile-new:

Anyways. Good luck to Allaho and the team today. Would be great to see him back on the track and hopefully winning "in a canter".
 
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Allaho a hard one to weight up for me.
I can see why you’d get involved now, given he’s even this morning shortened now to a general 4/1.

I’ve fallen victim in the past to doing it, but I’d say as soon as the talk of “If a horse is only at X% of his previous ability”
It’s very often a red flag.
And importantly there won’t be too many big days ahead from that point.
Which makes me more cautious that whilst he could have enough for today, and potentially his next race. Even a sub par Ryanair may prove beyond him, 2 aces down the line.

And I do think , whilst sometimes horses can look to have bundles in hand. The margins can be finer than they seem.
And it only takes a couple of factors to make a big impact. (A year older and a setback)

Istabraq mentioned getting involved for him at a NRNB price.
Assuming he wins today, I’m not sure 3/1 or anything like would be there NRNB.
But I’d echo that strategy and rather weigh in at maybe 7/4 - 9/4 NRNB.
3 months later where we’ll know so much more.
Even waiting until the day where I’d be almost certain someone would be offering some form of odds against.
​
 
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Any on allaho at 6 or 7s I think it's worth a few hedge doubles today using janidil and French dynamite who both have solid records fresh

Iv invested 1pt in cross doubles with saint roi, edwardstone and envoi allen

I went through the betting and could only find 6 horses other than allaho who are likely to run

He wins today I'm happy having only given up a small portion of the returns, he loses iv got 3 more in the book at minimal cost
 
jono said:
[

Istabraq mentioned getting involved for him at a NRNB price.
Assuming he wins today, I’m not sure 3/1 or anything like would be there NRNB.
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I think he was around 7 or 8/1 when I mentioned that, he's now halved in price on the strength of a declaration which means your 7/4 is probably nearer the mark, but what it highlights is how quick these markets move on new/rumour because it certainly won't be because the 8/1 was wrong and they got knocked over in the stampede...
 
Istabraq said:
I think he was around 7 or 8/1 when I mentioned that, he's now halved in price on the strength of a declaration which means your 7/4 is probably nearer the mark, but what it highlights is how quick these markets move on new/rumour because it certainly won't be because the 8/1 was wrong and they got knocked over in the stampede...
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Looks a typical ploy from the bookies to shorten it so if gets beat can push it out to a price it was a week ago and if wins then their liabilities are on at a shorter price with people betting prior to first run.
 
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Istabraq said:
I think he was around 7 or 8/1 when I mentioned that, he's now halved in price on the strength of a declaration which means your 7/4 is probably nearer the mark, but what it highlights is how quick these markets move on new/rumour because it certainly won't be because the 8/1 was wrong and they got knocked over in the stampede...
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Wouldn’t surprise me if Allaho went evens NRNB if he wins today when NRNB kicks in. Remember last year when they priced up GDC Ryanair at 14s NRNB (365) and everyone piled in only to receive a message a day later saying they dropped a bollock and he was actually evens. Think Bookies will be running scared of a fit Allaho NRNB
 
Runragged said:
Looks a typical ploy from the bookies to shorten it so if gets beat can push it out to a price it was a week ago and if wins then their liabilities are on at a shorter price with people betting prior to first run.
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Absolutely this.
And they love seeing some blue on Oddschecker as the FOMO brigade will be panic punting....
 
I'm gunna take him on today! Probably look like a mug after, but think the odds on the other 2 are worth having a punt! Awaits the outsider Grange Walk upsetting everything :boxing:
 
Runragged said:
Looks a typical ploy from the bookies to shorten it so if gets beat can push it out to a price it was a week ago and if wins then their liabilities are on at a shorter price with people betting prior to first run.
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He's been put up by a couple of tipsters too

But yeah that's there normal strategy once a few pennies start coming after an entry
 
Big Bucks said:
I'm gunna take him on today! Probably look like a mug after, but think the odds on the other 2 are worth having a punt! Awaits the outsider Grange Walk upsetting everything :boxing:
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The old 'back the outsider in a 3 horse race' tactic: a lad at work does that and allegedly does well
 
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Fair play to those who snared the 48/1 double Allaho/Allegorie de Vassy, was very keen to join the party but I could only get 23/1.
You have yourselves a solid position...
 
Good to see Allaho back :semi-twins: Thought he had gone too quick from the front and thought Janidil might pick him off but it wasn't the case.
 
They both looked tired at the end there. I'm cautious about a bounce on his next run but glad to see him back and healthy.
 
HoldenTheReins said:
They both looked tired at the end there. I'm cautious about a bounce on his next run but glad to see him back and healthy.
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Probably won't run until thurles now

Unless they want to try the king george

I'd rather they went to thurles in january myself
 
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