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2024 Novice Hurdlers

Benjy23 said:
Where's this?
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He said he suffered from sore shins and for that reason they made sure there was cut in the ground before running him. Whether he actually 'needs' soft ground is yet to be determined.
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May be a controversial view but I don't believe ant trainer sets out to target the Potato race, I personally think they hope their horse(s) are speedy enough for a Supreme or have the gears for a Ballymore, the horses than end up in the Potato race are those that have neither, which is why the race is such a difficult one to find runners (ante post) let alone winners...
 
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Istabraq said:
May be a controversial view but I don't believe ant trainer sets out to target the Potato race, I personally think they hope their horse(s) are speedy enough for a Supreme or have the gears for a Ballymore, the horses than end up in the Potato race are those that have neither, which is why the race is such a difficult one to find runners (ante post) let alone winners...
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That's not controversial at all, you're spot on IMO.
 
Istabraq said:
May be a controversial view but I don't believe ant trainer sets out to target the Potato race, I personally think they hope their horse(s) are speedy enough for a Supreme or have the gears for a Ballymore, the horses than end up in the Potato race are those that have neither, which is why the race is such a difficult one to find runners (ante post) let alone winners...
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Nail on Head
 
Down Memory Lane into 12's from 16's TWAR
 
Istabraq said:
May be a controversial view but I don't believe ant trainer sets out to target the Potato race, I personally think they hope their horse(s) are speedy enough for a Supreme or have the gears for a Ballymore, the horses than end up in the Potato race are those that have neither, which is why the race is such a difficult one to find runners (ante post) let alone winners...
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Got to disagree. There are some horses who will 100% never be capable of winning a Supreme or Ballymore and will be campaigned accordingly. Otherwise every horse would start off over 2m which is not the case. Some will be able to win a terrible 2m maiden but as soon as they’re up in grade, they’re going up in trip.

Look at the way Stay Away Fay was campaigned. Can you tell me that they thought he could win a Supreme or Ballymore?
 
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opatcho said:
Sounds like Captain Teague needs soft ground, Nicholls called it out a few times now
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Every time he discusses him he mentions he needs Soft. He'll only go to Chepstow if conditions are right. Stay Away Fay is another that he always says will only run when Soft. He may feel they are ground dependant or just protecting them as they are his top notchers.
 
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JackieMoon33 said:
Got to disagree. There are some horses who will 100% never be capable of winning a Supreme or Ballymore and will be campaigned accordingly. Otherwise every horse would start off over 2m which is not the case. Some will be able to win a terrible 2m maiden but as soon as they’re up in grade, they’re going up in trip.

Look at the way Stay Away Fay was campaigned. Can you tell me that they thought he could win a Supreme or Ballymore?
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SAF started out over 20f, he won but it was a bad race, only 3 of his 9 rivals that day has achieved an OR of 120 or more, had it been a better race connections may well have well have believed he was a Ballymore horse.

It may be a trend to follow with Nicholls, no idea what his previous prep/plans were with his Albert Bartlett horses though he'd never won the race before so whatever he had been doing wasn't working.
The race didn't exist 20 years ago so it's still finding its' feet, trends will develop, in the case of SAF I wonder what they would have done 20 years back, maybe saved him for Sefton at Aintree which has been established a little longer...
 
Istabraq said:
SAF started out over 20f, he won but it was a bad race, only 3 of his 9 rivals that day has achieved an OR of 120 or more, had it been a better race connections may well have well have believed he was a Ballymore horse.

It may be a trend to follow with Nicholls, no idea what his previous prep/plans were with his Albert Bartlett horses though he'd never won the race before so whatever he had been doing wasn't working.
The race didn't exist 20 years ago so it's still finding its' feet, trends will develop, in the case of SAF I wonder what they would have done 20 years back, maybe saved him for Sefton at Aintree which has been established a little longer...
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I won’t go and check everyone of the previous AB winners but there is no way the likes of Monkfish, Minella Indo, The Nice Guy or Vanillier just ‘fell into the race’. As I said, they could all win a weak maiden over much shorter but not up in grade. I cannot have that Monkfish was originally targeted at the Supreme or Ballymore and ended up in the AB as a backup!
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I won’t go and check everyone of the previous AB winners but there is no way the likes of Monkfish, Minella Indo, The Nice Guy or Vanillier just ‘fell into the race’. As I said, they could all win a weak maiden over much shorter but not up in grade. I cannot have that Monkfish was originally targeted at the Supreme or Ballymore and ended up in the AB as a backup!
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I've never said any AB horses fall in to the race...
 
Istabraq said:
I've never said any AB horses fall in to the race...
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You said that no horse is targeted at the AB which is pretty much the same thing. If you’re not targeted at the race but end up running there, you’ve essentially fallen into it.

Come on now, look at the list of last 10 winners and tell me the ones that would have started the season with aspirations of the Supreme or Ballymore?
 
JackieMoon33 said:
You said that no horse is targeted at the AB which is pretty much the same thing. If you’re not targeted at the race but end up running there, you’ve essentially fallen into it.

Come on now, look at the list of last 10 winners and tell me the ones that would have started the season with aspirations of the Supreme or Ballymore?
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I've said that in my opinion, and it is only an opinion, trainers initially have eyes on a Supreme or a Ballymore for their G1 horses and when those horses have proved not to have the speed or gears for either of those they look at the A Bartlett.
It's still a young race, trends have yet to fully develop...
 
Istabraq said:
I've said that in my opinion, and it is only an opinion, trainers initially have eyes on a Supreme or a Ballymore for their G1 horses and when those horses have proved not to have the speed or gears for either of those they look at the A Bartlett.
It's still a young race, trends have yet to fully develop...
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So Willie Mullins started the season thinking Monkfish was a Supreme or Ballymore horse? Come on.

Trends have nothing to do with it, the type of horse dictates the race they’re suited to.

I agree the AB race is tough from an ante post perspective but the rest I can’t get on board with.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
So Willie Mullins started the season thinking Monkfish was a Supreme or Ballymore horse? Come on.

Trends have nothing to do with it, the type of horse dictates the race they’re suited to.

I agree the AB race is tough from an ante post perspective but the rest I can’t get on board with.
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I think when you have the benefit of hindsight and the knowledge of several seasons' subsequent performances your example is an easy argument to make
 
Apart from John McConnell,l (and maybe Charles Byrnes - Blazing Khal?) and his one or two goes at the Bartlett with staying Novice hurdlers each season, I doubt many are single mindedly plotting a route to the Bartlett in September.

Id say its not just about the Supreme, Ballymore or Bartlett when connections start novice hurdling with their horses.

● Make a Hurdles debut
● Win a Maiden
● Try a Graded race, or two
● Get to know where you stand, vs the competition, and the trip, ground that could suit you best
● Sort a plan out for the spring

Could be Aintree, Cheltenham, Fairyhouse, Punchestown, Ayr, Sandown etc, for the last point

Not anything to get too hung up on, we will all have slightly differing thoughts on how important the Bartlett could be, in trainers minds, 6 months beforehand.

I don't think many have mentioned the race specifically just yet (Kinbara - McConnell is the one I recall)

The Stable Tours won't be long now.

If anyone mentions the potato race, maybe it will be Gordon?
 
For anyone who has / thinking about backing Willmount for the Supreme.
Worth considering the owner tweeted "He won't be running there" when the horse was mentioned about with the Supreme in mind recently.
And that "Cheltenham is not the be all and end all", with the Tolworth namechecked.
Sorry, I don't have the link to hand.

Would go against the owners interests as mentioned last season, at least by his previous trainer 29/01/23

“I’ll have to speak to the owner, but we’ll be looking at the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree and places like that.

“Everything of course has to be good and go well and we’re hoping he’ll be a nice novice hurdler next year. But if he keeps on improving the way he is we’ll definitely be at the likes of Cheltenham and Aintree – that’s what the owner buys these horses for, he wants to be at the big meetings.
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And imo, if you move your horses to Henderson.
Part of that is very much with the Cheltenham festival in mind.

But that very recent tweet does suggest he may well not be targeted at Cheltenham.
 
jono said:
For anyone who has / thinking about backing Willmount for the Supreme.
Worth considering the owner tweeted "He won't be running there" when the horse was mentioned about with the Supreme in mind recently.
And that "Cheltenham is not the be all and end all", with the Tolworth namechecked.
Sorry, I don't have the link to hand.

Would go against the owners interests as mentioned last season, at least by his previous trainer 29/01/23



And imo, if you move your horses to Henderson.
Part of that is very much with the Cheltenham festival in mind.

But that very recent tweet does suggest he may well not be targeted at Cheltenham.
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Should of moved him to Nicholls then, that's his quote every season :glee:
 
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