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2024 Cheltenham - the odds on offer.

On the other side of the age trends only previous winners Quevega and Honeysuckle have won for 8yo and over,which is a negative for Love Envoi, Marie's Rock etc.So with 3 5yo winners surely 5-7yo is the trend to use.
 
We need to see that love envoi has recovered from her injury too. I wouldn’t be going too crazy on her until nrnb in case there’s any complications with her recovery and also getting a prep run into her before the festival. I know connections seemed positive but any small setback in her recovery could lead to a non runner. I’d be cautious regarding her.
 
For ante post purposes I would definitely steer clear of older mares who have already achieved black type. A drop off in form or even a relatively minor injury has the potential to get them retired to the breeding sheds rather than risk damage to the broodmare value. Clearly, a mare can run at Cheltenham or Punchestown and still visit a stallion in reasonable time but there may be a knock on effect to the next years due to the 11 month cycle.
 
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I have a feeling that the owners of ashroe diamond might go for a jolly boys outing in the morgiana. She’s like brandy love mark two for me. I’m keeping the faith and hope she turns out to be willies number one for the mares come March
 
Guinness Village said:
I have a feeling that the owners of ashroe diamond might go for a jolly boys outing in the morgiana. She’s like brandy love mark two for me. I’m keeping the faith and hope she turns out to be willies number one for the mares come March
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Was confirmed a few weeks back that the Morgiana will be their first early target for Ashroe.
 
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Lobos said:
. She and the others are the dreaded 5 years old as well come March and I'd rather side with the older more established horses at this point.
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Since the Mares Hurdle became a grade 1,there have only been 6 runners for the 5yos. In 5 of the 9 years there hasn't been any at all. These 6 finished: won 2nd ,6th,fell 3 out when travelling well, unpl unpl. Their sp and OR in order were: 7/2 & 153, 7/1 &148, 16/1 & 139, 14/1 &146, 100/1 &133, 100/1 &132. It seems to me if they have the form and are fancied their age isn't a barrier.
By comparison 8yos+ are 1winner (Honeysuckle),& 8 places from 43 runners over the same period. Plenty of classy ones and former winners included in those 43 as well.
 
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Also Willie has the 1-2-3 from the Triumph Hurdle and they're all fillies with 2 of them already winning at further. I've talked myself into backing GM at 12's.
 
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Aye, 12s is still one of the better prices around at the moment imo. Not placed a festival antepost single for a few weeks now, as I don't see much value at the moment, and I probably don't know enough about the less exposed sorts compared to most... But GM be right up towards the top of my list if I had to have a bet now.

I'm including her in a few life changers instead :welcoming:
 
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I remember similar chat on here last season about the bad record of fillies in the Triumph. Again this wasn't as bad as the bare stats implied,and was down to lack of runners/quality of runners ,and then Willie blew it all out of the water anyway! The main point is when Willie starts taking races seriously stats and trends count for little.
 
I’ve said before, with uncertainty surrounding the participation of Lossie and Ashroe Diamond in the Mares everything is effectively double the price they should be, so anything in the race put up currently value, but as others have said, Gala Marceau at 12/1 looks the best of the lot….
 
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Istabraq said:
I’ve said before, with uncertainty surrounding the participation of Lossie and Ashroe Diamond in the Mares everything is effectively double the price they should be, so anything in the race put up currently value, but as others have said, Gala Marceau at 12/1 looks the best of the lot….
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Regards the first 2 where else would they turn up apart from the mares?

Pretty sure champion hurdle was ruled out for Lossie already​ maybe I’m making that up, anyone else recall something similar said by Mullins?
 
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Exar Essay said:
Mullins said after Punchestown that it’d be Mares this season then maybe Churdle the following season.

Edit: https://www.racingpost.com/news/repo...-a4vAj2X1YT7Y/
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That's a comment made immediately after Punchestown, since that race Gala Marceau has been to France and hacked up in a G1 over the mares distance with the future Galway Hurdle winner a dozen or so lengths back.
I think they've realised that over the extra 4f Gala Marceau is a better horse and they'll look elsewhere for Lossie.
Not every road leads to Cheltenham, they may well look at some of the Spring French races.

As for Ashroe, the set up at the Mullins yard might suggest they aim higher than the mares...
 
HesTheOne said:
Regards the first 2 where else would they turn up apart from the mares?

Pretty sure champion hurdle was ruled out for Lossie already​ maybe I’m making that up, anyone else recall something similar said by Mullins?
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Agree.Dont see either turning up in any other race. We must remember Lossie murdered GM each time she ran against her apart from when the jock got it horribly wrong. GM has it all to do to turn the tables even accounting for the step up in distance.
 
Istabraq said:
That's a comment made immediately after Punchestown, since that race Gala Marceau has been to France and hacked up in a G1 over the mares distance with the future Galway Hurdle winner a dozen or so lengths back.
I think they've realised that over the extra 4f Gala Marceau is a better horse and they'll look elsewhere for Lossie.
Not every road leads to Cheltenham, they may well look at some of the Spring French races.

As for Ashroe, the set up at the Mullins yard might suggest they aim higher than the mares...
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Can't see it. All the form we know points to Lossiemouth being the superior Mare. GM more likely to skip Festival than Lossie I'd say.
 
Lobos said:
Can't see it. All the form we know points to Lossiemouth being the superior Mare. GM more likely to skip Festival than Lossie I'd say.
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A huge factor i think your overlooking Lobos is that they aren’t the same connections.

Both Kenny Alexander and Ricci are huge Cheltenham men they aren’t skipping the festival with their best mares respectively by choice, WPM doesn’t mind overloading a race so that isn’t a factor whatsoever to be considering.

Do agree with what your said PT would choose Lossiemouth over GM as it stands now.

Earlier comment about alternative festival targets for either of the pair have no weight, there’s countless records of the Mullins clan saying Cheltenham is the be all and end all.. it’s their bread and butter. Every road leads there. No way they plan their campaign at some 2nd string meeting without taking in Cheltenham.

Edit - it was instabraq discussing Cheltenham not being the aim initially
 
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….recall Gala Marceau taking a keen hold in races, looked back at 3 of his 4 races over 2m;

26th Dec Leop; ‘ran freely’. 2nd.
4th Feb Leop; ‘took a keen hold’. Won.
29th Apr Pun; ‘run freely’. 3rd

Maybe with experience and going up in trip, settling better will bring out improvement. PP offered 33-1 Mares Hurdle after the Festival, 12-1 now seems reasonable.
 
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