2024 Champion Chase

[Lobos]

All three of his defeats have come at Cheltenham albeit in top races.

 

[Odin]

Thats the second time Jonbon has jumped uncharacteristcally poorly at Cheltenham.

This first part is categorically it for me - I'll be taking him on at Cheltenham irrespective of the opposition (within reason) until I see any further evidence that I'm wrong.

On a slightly related note, it also puts me off Gerri Colombe in the Gold Cup who was equally sticky with his jumping in the RSA last year and I want to see evidence that he's happier at Cheltenham before backing him for anything.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Thats the second time Jonbon has jumped uncharacteristcally poorly at Cheltenham. Undeniable he loves a small field / flat track, but not sure Cheltenham is his bag. I doubted he'd get near EF pre weekend and that view hasn't changed tbh.

Was thinking that myself Charlie, although he did jump ok earlier this season at Cheltenham.
Still have hope but realistically I don’t expect him to beat EF.

 

[Quevega]

I've not backed anything in the Champion chase aside from a couple of small stakes big prices on exchange. Appreciate it at 200+ and Dinoblue at 65ish.

But think Jonbon at 4-1 NRNB is worth a stab now. I can see the prices being closer come the day, although this might not happen if El Fabiolo smashes them in Dublin (very possible)
However, I'd still be happy with that price in a 2 horse race. Given the back form, and the difference one mistake can make.

But also, if El Fabiolo don't line up then he's even money at best on the day, so worth siding with him now.

Anything can happen, and I think Saturday showed that, and also showed that it really is a two horse race.
Jonbon did really well to get as close as he did with the mistakes and the big mistake he made in particular,
I think Nico would have pulled him up.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

But also, if El Fabiolo don't line up then he's even money at best on the day, so worth siding with him now.

Think he'd be a good shorter than evs, at a guess 4/6, maybe 4/7, there really is nothing else in the division.
I reckon Hendo will be having a serious look at the Ryanair now....

 

[Kevloaf]

Think he'd be a good shorter than evs, at a guess 4/6, maybe 4/7, there really is nothing else in the division.
I reckon Hendo will be having a serious look at the Ryanair now....

No surely not the Ryanair

I would be so disappointed with that I'd pretend I was giving up on the sport for a bit just for attention.

 

[Quevega]

Think he'd be a good shorter than evs, at a guess 4/6, maybe 4/7, there really is nothing else in the division.
I reckon Hendo will be having a serious look at the Ryanair now....

Close to zero chance they go Ryanair.

 

[Frankely My Dear]

Does this push Dinoblue into contention to appear here now? Would be shit for my mares chase bets but JP would consider a stab at El Fab surely. Unless he's a machine at the DRF. Would make Lobos right though

Goes against Mullins' comments about if you have a favourite for a Cheltenham race too and JP may wish to get a win on the Friday if it looks nailed on.

I don't believe in star signs but couldn't get more Gemini than that fence-sitting. Willie bingo round 4975

 

[Deleted member 4957]

What would you do if you were Hendo/JP with Jonbon ?
Go for a race you can only win if something happens to the fav or take in a different G1 that is open and if you stay you have every chance ?
I think they'll be watching El Fabiolo closely and if he hacks they'll look at all options...

 

[Quevega]

What would you do if you were Hendo/JP with Jonbon ?
Go for a race you can only win if something happens to the fav or take in a different G1 that is open and if you stay you have every chance ?
I think they'll be watching El Fabiolo closely and if he hacks they'll look at all options...

I'd go Champion Chase 100% if I was them, which is what they will do IMO.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

What would you do if you were Hendo/JP with Jonbon ?
Go for a race you can only win if something happens to the fav or take in a different G1 that is open and if you stay you have every chance ?
I think they'll be watching El Fabiolo closely and if he hacks they'll look at all options...

I would certainly go QM, and then hope he jumps as well as he has in the past.Do that he has a chance of winning. I genuinely think they believe he can win the race.
If he did that in the Ryanair they may wonder what might have been.
They still got plenty of years to do things differently with the horse.

 

[Lobos]

Yep. He'll go CC. A few seem to think that El Fabiolo has a howler awaiting him somewhere along the road the way he jumps as well so it's possible the 4/1 shortens substantially if that happens at DRF.

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[Leman14]

I personally don't see Jonbon going Ryanair
At least with El Fabiolo - they know their opposition and they know where they stand.
they have one horse to beat and anything can happen

With the Ryanair, they don't know that he stays and they don't know where he stands against those horses at that distance
(plus the CC is the more prestigious race)

They'd be gutted if El Fab got pulled on the day due to a stone-bruise....


Even if Jonbon DID go Ryanair, I don't see why Dinoblue would be re-routed, unless something were to happen to El Fab
(Willie goes for the easiest race etc. etc.)

 

[Evesham Road]

I also can only see Jonbon going to the QMCC. Several reasons: it's the more prestigious race; it's the race the horse is best suited to; we have to assume it has been 'Plan A' all season; even in defeat, his run at the weekend didn't scream Ryanair (i.e. he wasn't staying on behind Elixir De Nutz, needing another furlong or two to reel him in and in fact if anything EDN was moving away again). There's also an irony in folks suggesting that Jonbon having been turned over at short odds due to one or more in-race mistakes, is a reason for him not to take his chance in March against El Fabiolo! That's exactly the sort of logic which connections of Elixir De Nutz have disregarded and been handsomely rewarded for doing so.

As for price, I don't think bookies will have ot try too hard to attract money for Jonbon. Plenty will back on silks, on trainer, on UK vs Ireland, on perceived value vs a ~4/9 fav if El Fabiolo is there, heck some will back the horse whose name they can pronounce correctly. I'm not saying that those are all factors that forum-users will weigh heavily into consideration but they'll all contribute to keeping the price below an EW price.

 

[Lobos]

Has there been any confirmation that Dinoblue will definitely be taking on El Fabiolo in the Dublin Chase or has she got other targets??

 

[Ballybeen]

Ruby has talked about as if it’s just a given on the paddy power podcast. I fully expect her to face El Fab in Dublin.

 

[Lobos]

Thanks Ballybeen. She has drifted out in the last couple of days but I suspect that's just hard money for El Fabiolo. She'll make it an honest race at least.

 

[Kevloaf]

She'd get absolutely fluffing walloped by El Fabiolo.

She didn't win a Grand Annual getting weight from Maskada

She's beaten Fil Dor less than 2L

She's beaten Gentleman De Mee 7.5L .... wooooooooooooow :indecisiveness:


Can we give it a rest on Dinoblue There is a Mares Chase thread for a reason :triumphant:

 

[Lobos]

I'm not sure she'll get walloped. Under 10 lengths I reckon .

She has improved 20lbs since last year's Festival winning 4 races on the bounce over the minimum trip. Not yet given up hope JP will want her to run in the CC especially after Bon Jovi disappointing at the weekend. JP does have 3 of the 6 runners in the Dublin Chase so he certainly doesn't mind throwing a few of his at the same race. Don't forget, with her 7lbs allowance she's only 6lbs off El Fabiolo and 4 off Jonbon on ratings which equates to one big mistake or a couple of errors. Yes she most likely will end up in the Mares Chase but there's still a little water to flow under that old bridge yet . Stranger things have happened.

 

[Stormez]

I'm not sure she'll get walloped. Under 10 lengths I reckon .

She has improved 20lbs since last year's Festival winning 4 races on the bounce over the minimum trip. Not yet given up hope JP will want her to run in the CC especially after Bon Jovi disappointing at the weekend. JP does have 3 of the 6 runners in the Dublin Chase so he certainly doesn't mind throwing a few of his at the same race. Don't forget, with her 7lbs allowance she's only 6lbs off El Fabiolo and 4 off Jonbon on ratings which equates to one big mistake or a couple of errors. Yes she most likely will end up in the Mares Chase but there's still a little water to flow under that old bridge yet . Stranger things have happened.

Thing is, as you point out she’s had 4 runs this year to improve her rating whereas El Fabiolo has had little more than a pipe opener so far.

I’d be willing to wager several pence that by the time the Champion Chase rolls around there will be much than 6lbs separating them on ratings.

Unless your girl somehow turns him over at the DRF that is