2024 Champion Chase

[DenmanSacre]

Have watched his two festival defeats back and the Sandown race at the weekend and he looks as though he needs a step up in trip to me. Was outpaced at crucial times in the Supreme and Arkle and stayed on really well in deep ground in the TC. I still get the feeling that Cheltenham is not his course as even in the Shloer Chase he looked as though he didn't enjoy the hill too much. It could be the undulations perhaps. IMO Dinoblue will run in the CC . She's a natural front runner and an out and out 2miler so my thinking is she'll be there not only because she has a chance of good place money herself but because it'll help make it a real test for JB as well. I reckon it'll backfire though and JB will struggle to go with them which will affect his rhythm. I can see Dinoblue hanging in there and Boothill passing JB for 3rd. Nicky was thinking of stepping JB up in trip after being thrashed by EF in the Arkle but he changed his mind after giving him a couple more chances over 2. That may well come back to haunt him as JB really has had it all his own way and the horses he's beaten since the Fez have been either of a poor standard or are horses on their way down , Nube Negra/Edwardstone, so it may be totally misleading. There you go. Hope that helps.

Probably end up like Min where he found one to good in the best 2 mile race, step up to 2m4 and be too good for those horses. Got to try your hand at the Champion Chase first though. Bigger surprises than Jonbon winning it have happened and bigger favourites than EF have failed.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Probably end up like Min where he found one to good in the best 2 mile race, step up to 2m4 and be too good for those horses. Got to try your hand at the Champion Chase first though. Bigger surprises than Jonbon winning it have happened and bigger favourites than EF have failed.

I think that’s all quiet likely.
Lot more likely than getting beat by Boothill anyway.
He’s easily in the top two 2 milers around.
How many 2 m races now? And only been beaten by who could well be the two best NH horses currently in training.

 

[Black Dog]

He's beaten the current Champion Chase 2nd favourite (by my reading of oddschecker :boxing,and the 3rd favourite twice since the festival. Don't see what more he can do before the big day really.

 

[Craigy14]

Have watched his two festival defeats back and the Sandown race at the weekend and he looks as though he needs a step up in trip to me. Was outpaced at crucial times in the Supreme and Arkle and stayed on really well in deep ground in the TC. I still get the feeling that Cheltenham is not his course as even in the Shloer Chase he looked as though he didn't enjoy the hill too much. It could be the undulations perhaps. IMO Dinoblue will run in the CC . She's a natural front runner and an out and out 2miler so my thinking is she'll be there not only because she has a chance of good place money herself but because it'll help make it a real test for JB as well. I reckon it'll backfire though and JB will struggle to go with them which will affect his rhythm. I can see Dinoblue hanging in there and Boothill passing JB for 3rd. Nicky was thinking of stepping JB up in trip after being thrashed by EF in the Arkle but he changed his mind after giving him a couple more chances over 2. That may well come back to haunt him as JB really has had it all his own way and the horses he's beaten since the Fez have been either of a poor standard or are horses on their way down , Nube Negra/Edwardstone, so it may be totally misleading. There you go. Hope that helps.

I don’t disagree that he could also run over further but I also don’t think the 2 you have mentioned will beat him over 2m.

He’ll go to the festival unbeaten (should do anyway) and has only lost twice in his career to 2 of the best horses in training. Do you not just think he’s not up to their level as opposed to being outpaced? He looked to have Dysart Dynamo covered in the Arkle when he falls at the last and Saint Roi is about 3 lengths behind jumping 2 out and 1 out and Jonbon beats him 6 and a half lengths by the line. Saint Roi was upped in trip at Aintree next time out.

I just don’t see the improvement in Boothill from handicapper to beating Jonbon to a place at the festival. He just beat a 134 rated chaser by half a length albeit carrying 2 stone more. He’s also a year older than Jonbon. Nube Negra probably is past his best but I’d say the skeltons are at it with him imo. Edwardstone was vying for Champion Chase favouritism last year until the heavens opened so I’d say it’s a bit early to say he’s regressing. He maybe just needs a step up in trip as he will be 10 come the festival and maybe doesn’t have the speed he once had for 2m.

 

[archie]

ORs from Sunday:
El Fabiolo and Maskada left unchanged on 172 and 151 respectively. Fil D'or up 5 to 155. Feels about right.

 

[Bollinger]

One thing nobody’s mentioned, nor possibly noticed which I immediately considered when Willie mentioned the Clarence House chase for El Fabiolo at Ascot, is the fact he pretty much rules him out of the Dublin Racing Festival a fortnight later.

Which would lead me to work out if indeed Willie has no intention at all of going to Ascot but wants to play some proper mind games with Nicky over Xmas.

Interesting one this.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

One thing nobody’s mentioned, nor possibly noticed which I immediately considered when Willie mentioned the Clarence House chase for El Fabiolo at Ascot, is the fact he pretty much rules him out of the Dublin Racing Festival a fortnight later.

Which would lead me to work out if indeed Willie has no intention at all of going to Ascot but wants to play some proper mind games with Nicky over Xmas.

Interesting one this.

I just presume he’s doing the same as he did with Energumene last two seasons, simple as that.

 

[Lobos]

He's got some able substitutes for Leopardstown

 

[Bollinger]

I just presume he’s doing the same as he did with Energumene last two seasons, simple as that.

Energumene never ran at Ascot this year.

That’s why I was intrigued.

But as Lobos has observed, Willie can do what no other trainer can do - stick at least 3 high class horses in that race at Dublin and hope at least 2 are good enough to win anyway.

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Energumene never ran at Ascot this year.

That’s why I was intrigued.

But as Lobos has observed, Willie can do what no other trainer can do - stick at least 3 high class horses in that race at Dublin and hope at least 2 are good enough to win anyway.

He would have run at Ascot but that was abandoned and the race was run at Cheltenham instead.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Energumene never ran at Ascot this year.

Clarence House was re-scheduled for Trials Day, there was a clear intention for Energumene to head to Ascot and was then re-routed to Cheltenham.
What I find interesting about that is he's done it two years running with the horse, could be something he sees at Leopardstown he doesn't like for both El Fab and Energumene, or possibly the extra week or two is in his thinking....

 

[Carnage at Taunton]

Energumene never ran at Ascot this year.

That’s why I was intrigued.

But as Lobos has observed, Willie can do what no other trainer can do - stick at least 3 high class horses in that race at Dublin and hope at least 2 are good enough to win anyway.

He ran Gentlemen de mee and Blue Lord this year, 1st and 2nd.
Connections of Capt Guinness might see an opportunity to bag a big race for him next year.

 

[Lobos]

He ran Gentlemen de mee and Blue Lord this year, 1st and 2nd.
Connections of Capt Guinness might see an opportunity to bag a big race for him next year.

Dinoblue will run in it this year imo

 

[Lobos]

Graeme North re Bon Jovi..Sporting Life....

'A closing sectional from three out just half a second faster than 16/1 shot Le Patron posted in the Henry VIII over the same trip and one from the final fence identical to that posted by Truckers Lodge in the marathon handicap chase suggest that this was a race that tested stamina above all else and rather than trying to bang heads again with the speedier El Fabiolo in the Champion Chase Jonbon would seem to me be better off stepping up to two and a half miles sooner rather than later.'

Great minds think alike !!

 

[Lobos]

Ryanair for Eddie.....

“He ran very well and has come out of it well and we’ll probably look to step him up to two-and-a-half in the new year,” he said.
“He’s definitely not going for the King George, but there is the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton in January. We’ll have a look at that and, whether he goes there or not, I think his next run will be over two-and-a-half, as it will give us an idea what we’re doing with him.”With the Queen Mother Champion Chase already shaping up to be a straight shootout between Jonbon and his formidable Irish rival El Fabiolo, the Ryanair Chase could end up being Edwardstone’s Cheltenham Festival target if he can prove his stamina in the meantime.
King added: “You’ve obviously got Jonbon and the horse in Ireland and you wouldn’t really look forward to taking those two on.”

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ryanair for Eddie.....

“He ran very well and has come out of it well and we’ll probably look to step him up to two-and-a-half in the new year,” he said.
“He’s definitely not going for the King George, but there is the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton in January. We’ll have a look at that and, whether he goes there or not, I think his next run will be over two-and-a-half, as it will give us an idea what we’re doing with him.”With the Queen Mother Champion Chase already shaping up to be a straight shootout between Jonbon and his formidable Irish rival El Fabiolo, the Ryanair Chase could end up being Edwardstone’s Cheltenham Festival target if he can prove his stamina in the meantime.
King added: “You’ve obviously got Jonbon and the horse in Ireland and you wouldn’t really look forward to taking those two on.”

The 20/1 for the Ryanair is still a decent price. Great for each way doubles

 

[archie]

Just to confirm that El Fabiolo was given a 171 RPR for Sunday which is pretty much in line with ORs.

Jonbon also left on 170 by the UK handicapper.

 

[AaronLad]

Intersting to see haddex des obeaux has moved from gary moore to nicky henderson.
Could well be that with him and jonbon being in the same yard now nicky could use him to the advantage of jonbon in the champion chase? (i'm not sure how just find it an interesting mid season move)

 

[riccirich]

Intersting to see haddex des obeaux has moved from gary moore to nicky henderson.
Could well be that with him and jonbon being in the same yard now nicky could use him to the advantage of jonbon in the champion chase? (i'm not sure how just find it an interesting mid season move)

If they were to do that I'd guess the plan would be to set a fierce pace which seems to be haddex style anyway, as el fabiolo is the one that many think has a mistake in him so the faster they go the more chance they could draw a mistake out of him, and also they think jonbon will stay further so they'd probably want to make it as much of a test of stamina as possible.

 

[AaronLad]

If they were to do that I'd guess the plan would be to set a fierce pace which seems to be haddex style anyway, as el fabiolo is the one that many think has a mistake in him so the faster they go the more chance they could draw a mistake out of him, and also they think jonbon will stay further so they'd probably want to make it as much of a test of stamina as possible.

Yeah I think that's the possibility i'm thinking of.
Would there also be a benefit of having them work together?
Probably nothing to worry the "mighty" el fab, but it's a bit of an intriguing situation, I thought gary moore was bringing him along nicely enough