• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 4957
  • Start date Start date
Kevloaf said:
For context, the list of winning favourites would be a heck of a lot bigger...

It's the percentage I'd be interested in seeing..... but, I suppose my overall point was that it's not uncommon, so Willie being very bullish about it, doesn't always get backed up ....

We try and pick holes in every horse, when one of the holes is plugged with "trainer is bullish" it's not the most effective.... for all that we obviously do appreciate that he knows what he's doing!
Click to expand...

Oh way bigger - I'm sure someone has the numbers somewhere in the Twittershpere, id love to see them.

I think FV is particularly interesting because he's been the apple of Willies eye for such a long time. For me that makes Willies confidence matter significantly less. I thought the excuses were a little out of character LTO, as was being so openly critical of Paul. The vibe and focus from the yard seems to still be about excusing the run LTO and not talking about the attributes that make him worthy of such a short price.

I genuinely don't think il be pissed off if FV sluices in because I know that over time taking on horses with his profile and form will pay handsomely in the long run.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf and Carnage at Taunton
Kevloaf said:
Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.
Click to expand...

Yeah it does, but does it at the festival?
 
darlojim said:
Yeah it does, but does it at the festival?
Click to expand...

It's more likely to happen more often in the bumper and novice races for obvious reasons.

I think it's possibly not something we should focus too much upon as each season differs and there is no doubt that Willie is getting bigger :distracted:
It's not that often he's ran several in a race at Cheltenham, although this has been on the increase and he may well have several in each of the novice hurdles this year.
In other Spring festival's where he has regularly ran more horses due to the locality then his favourites have been turned over more from memory.
 
Kevloaf said:
Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.
Click to expand...

Courtesy of horseracebase, Willie Mullins record at Cheltenham by "string" based on SP. Shortest SP = 1st string.

1st string: 36 wins, 185 runs (19.46%, -27.41 SP)
2nd string: 14 wins, 180 runs (7.78%, -15.87 SP)
3rd string: 4 wins, 95 runs (4.21%, -14 SP) - thousand stars, briar hill, bleu berry, al boum photo 2019
4th string: 2 wins, 45 runs (4.44%, +32 SP) - relegate and eglantine de seuil for those interested

​​​​​​
Edit: in relation to Quevega point of Mullins getting bigger. Last 3 years results.

1st string: 13-51 25.49%, +3.49 SP.
Not 1st string: 7-107 6.54%, -51.87 SP. Winners elimay 22, the nice guy 22, colreevy 21, galopin des champs 21, sir Gerhard 21, concertista 20, ferny hollow 20

​​​​​​
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf
Was sure either TK or Blake did something on Ruby before that said he/the market used to get it right the vast majority of the time - tried to find it but could only find this - does indicate market generally right as well but 2nd string not a bad route [which im pretty certain wasnt the case in the one i had read]
 
No-one will be surprised that this discussion is a regular feature on group WhatsApps for syndicate horses with Willie. There are many examples of both Ruby and Paul getting it right and wrong, eg

Ruby rode Bellshill rather than Al Boum Photo or Kemboy in the 2019 Gold Cup. Having ridden Kemboy to victory at Aintree he stuck with him at Punchestown and the rest is history.

Paul preferred Melon to Kemboy for the Irish Gold Cup in 2021 which let in Danny who later expressed his surprise at Paul's choice.

Before Kemboy's recent win our syndicate spokesman said to Willie that he took it as a good sign that Paul Had chosen to ride him rather than Carefully Selected. The response? "You should do."

As has been said, the choice is far more difficult with novices because they go nowhere near competitive gallops with their main contenders. Sometimes different jockeys just get on better with different horses but you usually only find that out on the track.
 
  • Like
Reactions: robith and Kevloaf
thorne365 said:
Was sure either TK or Blake did something on Ruby before that said he/the market used to get it right the vast majority of the time - tried to find it but could only find this - does indicate market generally right as well but 2nd string not a bad route [which im pretty certain wasnt the case in the one i had read]
Click to expand...

The interesting thing to take out of that is that the second string in handicaps perform pretty well.

There's a logic to Townend picking the best novice over the season and usually getting it right, whereas that's far more difficult in handicaps, especially as Willie isn't really one for laying them out. Also as an observation, riding in big field handicaps compared to an 8 runner graded race is a bit like comparing Rugby Union to Rugby League. They're the same, but very different. And whilst I could be completely off the mark with this because I have no specific evidence, but Paul Townend has never made me feel as though I want to be on a handicapper just because he's riding.
 
  • Like
Reactions: thorne365
Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.
Click to expand...

Seems like Willie is playing, as always, IEP, GW & HY all now entered
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Betfair/PP already started marking horses up as N/R's for this race in their markets

Impaire Et Passe
Gaelic Warrior
Luccia
Hunters Yarn
Dark Raven

plus others all in that list.
Click to expand...

COD climaxing early.....
 
  • Like
Reactions: Exar Essay
Impaire Et Passe is getting pretty short on the exchanges for here... 13s currently. As short as I remember seeing him.
 
Dandrew99 said:
Impaire Et Passe is getting pretty short on the exchanges for here... 13s currently. As short as I remember seeing him.
Click to expand...

Nothing set in stone yet. The Supreme has always been talked of as an option by Willie.
 
Lobos said:
Nothing set in stone yet. The Supreme has always been talked of as an option by Willie.
Click to expand...

It has, but he's still been near enough triple figures every time I've looked until today. Could mean absolutely nothing but I was surprised.

Still don't see IEP going to the Supreme unless they step Facile Vega up to the Ballymore myself, those two definitely seem that the stable 1 and 2.
 
Dandrew99 said:
It has, but he's still been near enough triple figures every time I've looked until today. Could mean absolutely nothing but I was surprised.

Still don't see IEP going to the Supreme unless they step Facile Vega up to the Ballymore myself, those two definitely seem that the stable 1 and 2.
Click to expand...

Its already done - FV goes Supreme and IEP Ballymore and Paul rides both.

Only way IEP goes Supreme is if something happened FV
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf and ComplyOrDie
American Mike
Chasing Fire
Dark Raven
Diverge
Doctor Bravo
Facile Vega
Fennor Cross
Gaelic Warrior
Golden Rules
High Definition
Hunters Yarn
Il Etait Temps
Impaire Et Passe
Inthepocket
Marine Nationale
Nemean Lion
Palace Boy
Rare Edition
Strong Leader
Tahmuras ​
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kevloaf
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom