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2023 Supreme Novices Hurdle

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For me it’s all about watching the horse in races and then looking at price and opposition.
In the case of FV and IET it’s a bit tricky cos both races they both ran in this season had completely different results.
So whilst I would rather make my mind up relying on my judgement watching, I can see in this case why people are judging on comments from connections.
Still can’t have 2/1 myself but will keep a keen eye on his price, and potential doubles or trebles maybe.
 
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It's a fantastic betting race if you have a strong opinion isn't it :beaten:

FV is a proper bin job for me. I simply don't buy the excuses LTO and wouldn't back him with counterfeit at his current price. MN is easy to look past IMO. Bullish trainer, ordinary form, not a particularly good jumper and never been to Cheltenham. Feels far more supposition than substance, but it would be nice to see a smaller trainer do well in race. IEP, Luccia and GW aren't going to go, so we can ignore them. Tahmuras jumps like a snooker table - I couldn't have him on my mind, despite the recent form boost. High Definition is in the book but it's hard to have faith in a horse that keeps making mistakes - could you trust his jumping? You're then into pray and spray territory.

Feels like a similar Supreme to one KD won in 2019 - wide open. I can't remember if it was Scooby or Kev or both but someone made a long and sustained case for KD and he won at 6/1 in a wide open renewal. I was livid with myself for not having backed him at that price and remember thinking 'why on earth haven't I backed the Mullins G1 winner at the DRF for the Supreme' - it was so obvious. This year feels like a similar sort of year and the obvious horse is Il Etait Temps. The race will be run at a fierce tempo and whilst FV was falling out the back of the telly at the DRF, IET was sprinting clear of two horses who were previously unbeaten. I thought it was good at the time but it was actually a super impressive performance IMO. Not only has he shown a really good turn of foot of a race run at a strong pace, but he's hit the line hard. I think 6/1 for him is KD 2.0 all over again.
 
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I would agree with all of that, in theory, charlie. But I'm finding it very hard to get past the fact all the noises from the Mullins camp suggest they are absolutely convinced FV is the better horse.
 
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Can't Catch Me said:
I would agree with all of that, in theory, charlie. But I'm finding it very hard to get past the fact all the noises from the Mullins camp suggest they are absolutely convinced FV is the better horse.
Click to expand...

Are the noises always right though ?
 
Quevega said:
Are the noises always right though ?
Click to expand...

No, obviously not. But Willie Mullins knows a damn sight more than I do! And if he thinks FV is better than IET, who am I to argue. I'm only saying this from the point of view that whenever I go to have a cover bet on IET, I don't pull the trigger for this reason. Its not hard to imagine the Christmas run was more like true form for each horse.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
No, obviously not. But Willie Mullins knows a damn sight more than I do! And if he thinks FV is better than IET, who am I to argue. I'm only saying this from the point of view that whenever I go to have a cover bet on IET, I don't pull the trigger for this reason. Its not hard to imagine the Christmas run was more like true form for each horse.
Click to expand...

I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.
 
Triumph hurdle runners coming back the next year to win a Supreme.....
 
charlie said:
It's a fantastic betting race if you have a strong opinion isn't it :beaten:

FV is a proper bin job for me. I simply don't buy the excuses LTO and wouldn't back him with counterfeit at his current price. MN is easy to look past IMO. Bullish trainer, ordinary form, not a particularly good jumper and never been to Cheltenham. Feels far more supposition than substance, but it would be nice to see a smaller trainer do well in race. IEP, Luccia and GW aren't going to go, so we can ignore them. Tahmuras jumps like a snooker table - I couldn't have him on my mind, despite the recent form boost. High Definition is in the book but it's hard to have faith in a horse that keeps making mistakes - could you trust his jumping? You're then into pray and spray territory.

Feels like a similar Supreme to one KD won in 2019 - wide open. I can't remember if it was Scooby or Kev or both but someone made a long and sustained case for KD and he won at 6/1 in a wide open renewal. I was livid with myself for not having backed him at that price and remember thinking 'why on earth haven't I backed the Mullins G1 winner at the DRF for the Supreme' - it was so obvious. This year feels like a similar sort of year and the obvious horse is Il Etait Temps. The race will be run at a fierce tempo and whilst FV was falling out the back of the telly at the DRF, IET was sprinting clear of two horses who were previously unbeaten. I thought it was good at the time but it was actually a super impressive performance IMO. Not only has he shown a really good turn of foot of a race run at a strong pace, but he's hit the line hard. I think 6/1 for him is KD 2.0 all over again.
Click to expand...

In hindsight, it's absolutely hilarious that a Mullins/Ruby Supreme horse who won at the DRF went off 6s isn't it
 
Quevega said:
I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.
Click to expand...

I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.
Click to expand...

Yeah, a good way of putting it, and both runs have arguable cases/excuses for either horse.
Also, it's not a 2 horse race really.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I think its simply a question of can they get FV back to his best in time. If they can, he beats IET. As you say that then becomes a question of value... I thought 3/1 was fair enough but he's getting too short now.

Might be an odd thing to say, but if you switch the two runs around. And FV had bombed out at Xmas, then beat IET as easily as he did, but at the DRF, what price would FV be now? Almost certainly odds on. So he's definitely still value based on respective ability. Looking back, he perhaps didn't get the credit he deserved for beating IET and AD so easily at Christmas.
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Judging by the comments on here from stable connections he's in tip top form, the nagging concern I have for FV was how lit up he was LTO before the race and just at the off.

Add in the build up of the first race of the festival and the noise and tension that surely brings, I'm hoping they can keep him somewhat cool and not boiling over before it even begins.
 
Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.
 
robith said:
In hindsight, it's absolutely hilarious that a Mullins/Ruby Supreme horse who won at the DRF went off 6s isn't it
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Yeh it really pissed me off! What made it worse was people I respect on here making the case and ignoring them too!
 
charlie said:
Yeh it really pissed me off! What made it worse was people I respect on here making the case and ignoring them too!
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Respect your elders, and do not ****, with the big boys, yeh?
 
Kevloaf said:
Willie's 2nd and 3rd strings beating their perceived 1st string happens a lot doesn't it?

Or does it?

That's something I feel I read about 4 years ago..... I'd say since Ruby retired it's probably happened more often.
Click to expand...

Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord
 
charlie said:
Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord
Click to expand...

Just this season that as well.
 
Quevega said:
I agree, it's a tough call.
I've sided with what I've seen, based on prices, but know full well, this often turns out wrong.
And I tend to go with the perceived value of course, if the prices were the other way around I'd likely back Vega.
Click to expand...

When Ive lost on a race, I take more comfort when its a horse I picked and backed, rather than if/when it started out as someone else's idea, and I checked it out, then followed them in :lemo:

Therefore the former types of bets are the most prevalent,
The latter, are much less often
 
charlie said:
Happens a fair bit

Il Etait Temps beat Facile Vega
Champ Kiely beat Grangeclare West
Ashroe Diamond beat Champ Kiely
El Fabiolo beat Appreciate It
GM beat Lossiemouth
GDM beat Blue Lord
Click to expand...

For context, the list of winning favourites would be a heck of a lot bigger...

It's the percentage I'd be interested in seeing..... but, I suppose my overall point was that it's not uncommon, so Willie being very bullish about it, doesn't always get backed up ....

We try and pick holes in every horse, when one of the holes is plugged with "trainer is bullish" it's not the most effective.... for all that we obviously do appreciate that he knows what he's doing!
 
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